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P.K.

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About P.K.

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    Sir Michael Fish

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  • Location
    Watford
  • Interests
    Meteorology - Hurricanes, Snow, Tornadoes<br />Sport - WatfordFC, Saracens RFC, Cricket, F1<br /><br />And of course Sir Michael Fish

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  1. I had a look at the predictions thread earlier and knew we had a much better chance than people were giving us. That is two wins away to West Ham now in a short period. (PS - Like the extra new emotions on here )
  2. The only strange thing about the match was we didn't win by more. That win has been likely given how we have been playing, all the way up to 16th yesterday!
  3. It would still be a STS I guess as the SS scale only applies to TCs.
  4. From the NHC: Subject: A16) Why do tropical cyclones require 80°F (26.5°C) ocean temperatures to form ? Tropical cyclones can be thought of as engines that require warm, moist air as fuel (Emanuel 1987). This warm, moist air cools as it rises in convective clouds (thunderstorms) in the rainbands and eyewall of the hurricane The water vapor in the cloud condenses into water droplets releasing the latent heat which originally evaporated the water. This latent heat provides the energy to drive the tropical cyclone circulation, though actually very little of the heat released is utilized by the storm to lower its surface pressure and increase the wind speeds. In 1948 Erik Palmen observed that tropical cyclones required ocean temperatures of at least 80°F (26.5°C) for their formation and growth. Later work (e.g., Gray 1979) also pointed out the need for this warm water to be present through a relatively deep layer (~150 ft, 50 m) of the ocean. This 80°F value is tied to the instability of the atmosphere in the tropical and subtropical latitutes. Above this temperature deep convection can occur, but below this value the atmosphere is too stable and little to no thunderstorm activity can be found ( Graham and Barnett 1987). See Question G3 for how this value might change if a significant global warming occurs. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A16.html
  5. Not that I'm aware of. I thought Ivan was a first. I'm sure I can think of some other things as well.
  6. The M and T sufficixes were first used by the Met Office (You say they but that is a list I made the other day of all the ones I've seen ) Few other things you could add: Annular hurricanes, Dvorak technique.
  7. A couple of points to add: Here is the list of different invest letters: A - Arabian Sea B - Bay of Bengal C - Central Pacific E - East Pacific F - Fiji (SWPAC) L - North Atlantic M - Mediterranean Sea P - South Pacific Ocean R - Meteo-France La Reunion (SWIO) S - South Indian Ocean T - South Atlantic U - Australia W - West Pacific It is also possilbe they would use K for any more Black Sea systems It also has to be noted that the NHC (National Hurricane Centre) use 1 minute wind averages whereas all the other RSMC (Regional Specialised Meteorlogical Centres) use 10 minute wind averages. The difference between one minute and ten minute averages is 17%, therefore 100kts from the JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) would be 117kts from the NHC if they both saw the system the same way. You can also get individual vorticies appearing within the eye such as here within the eye of Hurricane Isabelle: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/images/isabelloop1sm.gif. Within these there can be pressure gradient of 8-15hPa over just 1km, leading to winds of 20-80mph above the background winds. (A Look at Mysterious Damage Streaks in Hurricane Andrew, Jeff Lindner, Texas A&M University, ATMO - 459 Tropical Cyclones, 2004) I also don't think this was mentioned, but the stronger the system the deeper the system and so the higher level winds that help to steer the system. It does have to be noted however that storms can be very small, such as Cyclone Tracy which has been compared to a very large tornado, and so don't need such a low central pressure for winds of the same strength of say Typhoon Tip. (Size of these systems can be compared at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/trop...yphoonsizes.jpg I'm sure I'll think of more a bit later.
  8. Hmm, I thought it was the year following this eruption..... What caused the year with no summer then? Edit - Ok it was a different eruption then http://www.birch.net/~lindabrown/000145.htm
  9. That is why the following year was known as "the year without summer."
  10. That was an interesting programme. (It was nice to see a bit more of what my tutor does at the end )
  11. I'm guessing I slept through it but then I was only 2 at the time - Just a bit windy looking at this.
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