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Posts posted by Stuie
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Theresnoway I threw the towel in on 10 day charts years ago.
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GEFS for the South coast (Dorset) looks pretty mundane on this runs diagrams. Nothing to raise the eyebrows.
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nick sussex lol, Nick. Let`s blame the French (Meteociel)
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mountain shadow I know, bizarre. The only sort of model that seems reliable is the jet stream.
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ECM does seem to track the LP with the southerly predicted jet.
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AO- Pretty solid for 4 days, which tbh, covers all models.
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nick sussex By the weekend the jet fires up way South which helps the latter precipitation of the week (LP)
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ECM fancies a Greeny High attempt on this run.
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11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
It is part of the process that will (hopefully) turn it negative - but not in 10 days time, nailed on positive until then as the GEFS based output you show indicates.
Cheers, Mike. Let`s see.
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
How does that work with a positive NAO Mike?
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7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Tough one, Matt. Your end frame has a near complete vortex parking itself in it`s happy Winter home. Yeah I`m game to keep watching or I wouldn`t be typing but we do need something special to stop that last frame!
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Following on regarding the potential winds and my comment yesterday? about the ECM not buying into it, you can look here at it`s forecast.
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1 hour ago, TillyS said:
The 12z UKMMO still has quite a storm on Sunday, and another potent one on Tuesday:
The track is everything in terms of who gets it worse. Further north with the GFS.
It looks pretty fierce on the Fax chart:
couple of things, the gusts are measured in km/h and not mph thankfully.
Like when chasing snow or X, there is still plenty of time for modification, normally in a negative manor but I would start to be concerned if Fridays output either agreed or intensified the status.
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Posted yesterday about the potential of the weekend storm trending North, ECM tonight making it much more a Northern Scotland affair rather than whole country affair. Could end up being nothing at all.
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After hunting around ALL models for tomorrow morning, unfortunately IMBY misses out a decent snowfall on the South Coast. That close you can almost see the 2 fingers.
Funny old game (EVERY year)
EDIT: If all the models have it slightly wrong, I will report.
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So are we hoping the bulk of the PV, which moves to it`s Canadian winter home to be disrupted and give us a cold pool to tap into?
Would love to see those charts evolve, a learning curve for all no doubt too.
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6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
ECM / GEM / GFS are all showing some type of pressure rise over the UK on day 10
Interesting consistency at that range, if nothing else!
Before then, however, we have a potentially damaging storm coming in for Sunday
According to the GFS, that's 80-90mph winds across a large swathe of the country. These types of extreme windspeed do tend to downgrade, and let's hope they do!
Been looking at that. The system is trending North aided by the jet. It is worth keeping an eye on but could end up skirting the North of Scotland.
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4 minutes ago, MAF said:
There is a lot of 'hanging hats' in posts above. Is that because people are looking too far ahead?
in the coming days we have a full on northerly, a channel low which might be more north than south, ppn likely to be snow in the north and possibly the south depending on the low, sub zero windchill or 'feel like' temps and wintry conditions for the next 3-5 days.
Hey! it's winter in the UK lets be happy that at least it 'feels' like winter and not autumn regardless of what a computer model tells us
Nothing strange here, it's just the annual Netweather mood swings.
Situation should be pretty clear of this potential 'spell' by Sunday night.
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GEFS for South coast of Dorset on this run looks perfect for a battleground.
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
damianslaw You have summed it up well Damian.