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Stuie

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Everything posted by Stuie

  1. Theresnoway I threw the towel in on 10 day charts years ago.
  2. GEFS for the South coast (Dorset) looks pretty mundane on this runs diagrams. Nothing to raise the eyebrows.
  3. nick sussex lol, Nick. Let`s blame the French (Meteociel)
  4. mountain shadow I know, bizarre. The only sort of model that seems reliable is the jet stream.
  5. ECM does seem to track the LP with the southerly predicted jet.
  6. AO- Pretty solid for 4 days, which tbh, covers all models.
  7. nick sussex By the weekend the jet fires up way South which helps the latter precipitation of the week (LP)
  8. So for my local in West Dorset (South) next week, looks like there isn`t enough cold in place when the precipitation comes in. Yep, that same old Winter theme.
  9. Cheers mate, was converting km/h to mph in my head. Looks similiar.
  10. Looking at the wind issue again for Sunday night/Monday morning. Using the Arpege, western and southern coasts around 50-60 mph gust with Northern Scotland taking the brunt with upto 90 mph gusts. Not sure what the UKMO values look like but probably the stormiest of all the models.
  11. Tough one, Matt. Your end frame has a near complete vortex parking itself in it`s happy Winter home. Yeah I`m game to keep watching or I wouldn`t be typing but we do need something special to stop that last frame!
  12. Following on regarding the potential winds and my comment yesterday? about the ECM not buying into it, you can look here at it`s forecast. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-10ws-mean-spread?base_time=202401170000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202401291200
  13. couple of things, the gusts are measured in km/h and not mph thankfully. Like when chasing snow or X, there is still plenty of time for modification, normally in a negative manor but I would start to be concerned if Fridays output either agreed or intensified the status.
  14. Posted yesterday about the potential of the weekend storm trending North, ECM tonight making it much more a Northern Scotland affair rather than whole country affair. Could end up being nothing at all.
  15. After hunting around ALL models for tomorrow morning, unfortunately IMBY misses out a decent snowfall on the South Coast. That close you can almost see the 2 fingers. Funny old game (EVERY year) EDIT: If all the models have it slightly wrong, I will report.
  16. So are we hoping the bulk of the PV, which moves to it`s Canadian winter home to be disrupted and give us a cold pool to tap into? Would love to see those charts evolve, a learning curve for all no doubt too.
  17. Been looking at that. The system is trending North aided by the jet. It is worth keeping an eye on but could end up skirting the North of Scotland.
  18. Nothing strange here, it's just the annual Netweather mood swings. Situation should be pretty clear of this potential 'spell' by Sunday night.
  19. GEFS for South coast of Dorset on this run looks perfect for a battleground.
  20. That`s a nippy 7 day 2m temp for the South coast / Dorset. A proper winter feel, cold and dry, nice.
  21. You can debate how much the NAO factors into our cold but nicely negative for a couple of weeks.
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