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Everything posted by Stuie
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
damianslaw You have summed it up well Damian. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Theresnoway I threw the towel in on 10 day charts years ago. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEFS for the South coast (Dorset) looks pretty mundane on this runs diagrams. Nothing to raise the eyebrows. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
nick sussex lol, Nick. Let`s blame the French (Meteociel) -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
mountain shadow I know, bizarre. The only sort of model that seems reliable is the jet stream. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
AO- Pretty solid for 4 days, which tbh, covers all models. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
nick sussex By the weekend the jet fires up way South which helps the latter precipitation of the week (LP) -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So for my local in West Dorset (South) next week, looks like there isn`t enough cold in place when the precipitation comes in. Yep, that same old Winter theme. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cheers, Mike. Let`s see. -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cheers mate, was converting km/h to mph in my head. Looks similiar. -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at the wind issue again for Sunday night/Monday morning. Using the Arpege, western and southern coasts around 50-60 mph gust with Northern Scotland taking the brunt with upto 90 mph gusts. Not sure what the UKMO values look like but probably the stormiest of all the models. -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tough one, Matt. Your end frame has a near complete vortex parking itself in it`s happy Winter home. Yeah I`m game to keep watching or I wouldn`t be typing but we do need something special to stop that last frame! -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Following on regarding the potential winds and my comment yesterday? about the ECM not buying into it, you can look here at it`s forecast. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-10ws-mean-spread?base_time=202401170000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202401291200 -
Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Stuie replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
couple of things, the gusts are measured in km/h and not mph thankfully. Like when chasing snow or X, there is still plenty of time for modification, normally in a negative manor but I would start to be concerned if Fridays output either agreed or intensified the status. -
That`s a nippy 7 day 2m temp for the South coast / Dorset. A proper winter feel, cold and dry, nice.
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