Jonathan Lang

Both the ECM and the GFS are wanting to begin weakening the PV over canada slightly in FI so maybe a sign of the end of this pattern? ...or perhaps I'm being too hopeful?

Foolishly opened a window on the south facing side of the house to look for damage. The wind blew it shut onto my nose ouch!

Even though the output may not look too good currently, we could have some somewhat cold air wrapping around low pressure systems such as what the GFS shows at 111 hrs. This may cause an outside chance of some snow in some areas next week. Even thought the op may be on the colder side of the ensembles, it certainly isn't an outlier!

Getting constant hail here at 155m (500ft) A start I suppose.

I'm also seriously hoping the scandi high is underestimated! It really is the decider between the Atlantic breaking through and snow.

Ah yes! It's the first time I've seen those darker blues on Britain since March! Too bad its still FI. Hopefully I will be watching those charts pull themselves into the present! A cold winter would nicely tick all the boxes for this year's weather in terms of British variety! Especially after the summer we had! Now to contribute something to this thread! The GFS Ensembles for West Yorkshire which is essentially slap bang in the middle of Britain CLEARLY show the trend towards colder conditions!!! They also show a dumping of precipitation, just as the temperature drops!

And here I am impatiently waiting for the next frame to update!

A clear upwards trend in air pressure in the GEFS so perhaps a break in the rain in the foreseeable future but I'm not fully convinced as the scatter is quite large.

Direct hit from thunderstorm!!! Seriously heavy rain!!!

Getting a little confused. When you guys are saying northern areas will bear the brunt of unsettled weather and southern parts fair better, where do central parts of the uk fit in? Namely the yorkshire/lancashire band. Is this considered central england or does that refer to the midlands?

Sky has turned white here in the last ten mins here so maybe some sun soon Edit: The solar disk is now slightly visible!

Looking at the GEFS ensembles there is a clear upwards trend in air pressure until the 27th June then it dips a bit. The GFS operational is in the lower end of it's group showing it's June 2012 style FI to be the worst case scinario with little support. Therefore it is unlikely.

Why is everyone getting down on the upcoming unsettled weather? The general 'sine wave' of air pressure fluctuations shown on the current GEFS would give at least a good balance between unsettled, wet weather and sunny, calm and nice conditions. The T850 also shows there will be at least one warm sunny day next mon/tue so worry not! Any further is FI!

Every shower today has fallen as hail!

Now that would be typical for a british summer wouldnt it! Always some reason why its cool! Anyway thanks for the correction.

Big flakes but only settling on existing snow cover though.

Correct me if I'm wrong but if this easterly setup continues into the summer, will it be very warm and dry as Siberia warms up a bit?

Is that hollingworth lake? Anyway shallow convection, Heavy snow, makes no sense!

There are icicles hanging from the lamp post lanterns which means the hot lamp is melting the snow and as it drips its freezing. Light powder snow been falling all evening but is accumulating fast

Horizontal 50p snow now Wooo XD

Appears the two areas of snow are linking together now. Literally above my head!

Looks like that length of precipitation just before the front is gonna give me a taster! 5-30cm on flat ground depending where I measure currently.

Friction?

Big chunky flakes falling now

14cm on decking and bin lids now but only 4-5cm on paths.