abbaman
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Posts posted by abbaman
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I really want no more snow as it is very troublesome where I live as the road does not get gritted. I want no more snow at all even light snow. As we need some more mild winters for a few years. I'll like 55 years of mild weather in winter with stormy weather but no snow.
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Hi,
I have noticed on the model thread that some people think that the weather that we are having at the moment - HP dominated in winter is boring or a "borefest" or "snoozefest" - I for one disagree as HP in winter can bring freezing fog like it did last night and the night before and I seem to like freezing fog almost as much as snow in the winter - it can keep tempeatures very cold especially during the daytime and icedays are possible where freezing fog persists. Not to mention the rime frost and hoar frost that can be spectacular under freezing fog conditions. And it can be almost as distruptive as snow especially to air travel - noticed that Liverpool Airport had a few flights diverted elsewhere last night with a Runway Visual Range (RVR) visability of 100m for a lot of last night. The main thing that fustrates me about the model thread is that if severe cold and snow is not on the models, some posters, probably only a minority but enough to make my blood boil, seem to think that it is going to be either mild, boring or poor for the forseeable future.
Anyway onto the possibilty of snow in the next few weeks, does anyone think we could see some snow in the next few weeks? Yes I here from a lot of posters that the models show low pressure both to the north and south of us keeping the High Pressure over us but I do remember looking at the charts for late January 1996 which seemed to show HP over us - was that similar to what we have now? but then a few weeks later we had the battleground situation between the very cold air to the east and the mild Atlantic air that brought that big snowstorm on the 5th and 6th February 1996 - does anyone think we could see a similar evolution into this February - a "battleground" scenario that could deliver big time for our region? I would like to get a similar snowstorm this February because I think it is nice to have snowfall spread thoughout the winter and not concentrated in a single month and it would be nice for me to get lying snow in all 3 winter months - December, January and February - even though January this month for me so far has only had 1 day of lying snow.
What I don't seem to understand however is how the synoptics that are conductive to snow and cold in December can suddenly just disappear as we move later in the winter - yes I knew it happened in winter such as 1981-82 and 1996-97 but we just has the coldest December for over 100 years so I can't see how synoptics conductive to snow can just vanish without trace - I do think we will see some more snowfall from February into March - can anyone explain?
But even in winters in the so called "christmas pudding" before 2008 February, March and April have often delivered not just cold wise - but snow wise too - examples that I think of are the Februaries of 1999 and 2007 which were mild overall but had good snow events contained within them, March 2006 and April 2008. So I certainly do think there is good potential for snowfall over the next few weeks - infact I might stick my head out and say that I would be extremely surprised if nowhere in the lowland British Isles has significant snowfall within the next 6-8 weeks.
Luke
I think we might get some snow but it will be light snow it won't settle at all with a it will be mainly on higher ground mainly the hills and mountians of the uk. I have checked some data from a few years back.
And winter is over forget anymore snow coming back winter is really over for us all with High Pressuse still sitting over us.
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My is 4.0 cet for Feb.But could be 3.9.
4.9C.
Spring warmth at times, with some cooler/cold spells, mainly limited to the first half.
I agree with this for Feb.
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Todays countyfile forcast is hIgh pressuse going away on tuesday but coming back on thurday. But no snowrisk at all.
Cable uk chanel numbers 101 standard 108 hd.
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A few spots of light rain at times but, overall, a cloudy and dry day with the moderate N wind once again making it feel much cooler than the thermometer suggested.
At 1800;
Temp', 4.9c
Max' today, 5.9c
Min' last night, 3.1c ( 24hr min' was 2.8c )
Grass min', 1.1c
Rainfall from 0900-1800, trace
Sunshine, nil
Mean wind speed, 14 mph N
Highest gust today, 33 mph N at 1501
8 oktas St and Stcu
A few spots of light rain falling
Vis', 50 km.
The same as my weather station as well my high was a tad above that 6.0 but the rest the same.
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It has been generally fairly dull the past week or two, but at least it's been dry, thus has allowed me to do some long overdue maintanence work on the house!
I take the point that some members post that the weather's very monotonous, but personally, I'd take it over howling gales and frontal washouts any day of the week
I take dry weather with a few rainy days instead of snowy weather anyday in winter. Thats my winter perfect weather.
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What I want for the whole of the Uk is have high pressuse for the next 55 years and no snow ever and nice sunny weather all year round like some parts of Africa. some contries never get snow give the contries that never have snow some real winter weather. With greenland with very cold weather all year round.
East midlands weather should have a separte area to the West midlands on this forum. My weather forcast predictions for the up and coming 6 weeks we will get some light snow but no heavy snow in the east midlands apart from the east midlands coastal area could get some heaver snow but the coastal areas are under 65% for heaver snow as the high pressuse still sits over the Uk. Update all areas will get a light scattering of snow but not as heavy as late Nov early Dec. Using Derby Uni SSF model that's is not for public view. Most of Feb is going to be mild apart from late Jan Early Feb when we will get some more snow but on the light side. March is still going to be a mild month as well. And my March weather forcast predictions are being done this very minute. March forecast is hear now March is going to be a mild month with some sunny weather and a lot of rainy showers mixed in. The end of Feb weather is diffrcut to predit at this time but Feb is going to milder as I have just done my temps for every day min temp -0.1c max temp 13c the last day of Feb temp is 13c max. Then untill March 16th it will be temps in some double numbers and some low numbers lowest temp in March is the 30 0c. April forcast is being done at the end of Feb.
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Anybody agree with Abbaman that were going to see heavy snow next weekend ? Ive not see any other suggestions of this. I for one hope not
That was done yesterday but the latest update is no smowrisk at all nextweekend As changed 5-25% snowrisk.
But metcheck.com as a 30-50% for nextweekend but I'm ingoreing that risk.
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Forecast Track for Cyclone 043
This is for a cyclone just north of the uk.
and the link http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/PREMIUM/cyclonetrack_cyclone_ensembles.asp?cyclone=043
Sometimes, each ensemble run won't develop the same system, this means that it can only have a few tracks as opposed to clustered ones which feature for already existing systems.
Depression (981-1013mb) Gale (961-980mb) Storm (941-960mb) Cyclone (less than 940mb) -
acording to the bbc website updated at 00.28 there is going to be a heavy snow shower for Manchester
good heavens what is going on.................
C.S
As I was in manchester today no ****** snow at all so the BBC are just had a grimlen in the computer. So we need to post a note on thier weather site.
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Well, the GFS isn't modelling any particularly cold weather or snowfall during the period in question. The NMM is a Hi-res model used in forecasting up to a couple of days ahead. The CFS...well I'm not sure why you would be using that. And as for the SSF... which model is this again?
SSF is a model run by Derby Uni so I have the only acess to that in the uk. And SSF is a trail model by them for the weather.
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Thing is, if the scandi high happens will it produce enough deep cold air to produce anything to the west of the country? At the moment unless we see really cold temps in the north atlantic , it does look as if rain could be a very big feature again either next week or the week after.
why are you posting in the NW thread you don't want snow, when you should be saying that in the midlands thread? lol
Not so much as greedy as realistic. The problem is that chart is showing very very light snow affecting a lot of the region. Typically in that kind of setup, low levels tend to get very little if anything of the white stuff, while those on higher ground get a pasting.
If it was 2/3mm an hour then it would be very interesting to say the least. There is now some sort of agreement on GFS going for scandi high and snow..but we'll see.
I have a business in the north west that relies on clear roads. As we need to get to places of the beaten track as sometimes one of bands in my bussines needed last dec to get to a place of the beaten track in the lake Discrit for a concert and the road was blocked.
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Agree SP I had my fair sheir of snow in december, a foot of snow will probably not be equaled here for a long time. I'm now hoping for an early warm spring with clear days and thundery showers. Now When was the last time we saw that?
I'm all up for a warm spring with april showers with the snow gone all feb and march. Never to return for 50 years with any snow.
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Dare I ask which model(s) were used to aid you in producing your "forecast"?
A largely high pressure-dominated outlook for the foreseeable from all forecast models. So it'll be cold and dry. No snow.
No mind in asking but
Gfs cfs ssf and nnm . I have full acess to the Derby uni weather station as well. So can get full charts from there weather station. And one other that is the uni's own model.
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Many people are disappointed that we're not cold enough, after the December cold spell you'd think some people would be happy, I guess not..
Right now I would welcome a long spell of mild weather, mainly because for personal reasons, prolonged cold is detrimental.
I agree with you thats what I want forseeable futre. And for the next 30 years.
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just done my 10 day forcast and we will have snow on 31st of jan untill the 3rd of feb very heavy in the midlands area. Then back to the milder weather. Readings of the weather are 38-78%. But that could all change as have checked all the weather maps for snow risk from a lot of sites and they are giving snow for them two days. So grit at the ready a lot of grit needed at all times so get your grit in stock.. So my weather forcast is the same as on here. So we need no more of that snow I do not want anymore snow but temp is just below frezzeing. But that was done over an hour ago and the redone version is no snowrisk then. But frist one still stands as a probile sevare weather.
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Hi this is from the meto beta site. As Stuart does not inc this forcast.
UK Outlook for Thursday 27 Jan 2011 to Saturday 5 Feb 2011:Chilly and generally cloudy on Thursday and Friday, but generally dry with light winds. However, some light rain or drizzle in the northwest. High pressure will remain the dominant feature from Saturday through to Monday and it looks as though it will remain largely dry with variable cloud, but also some bright or sunny spells. Overnight frosts and local fog patches not too prevalent but will occur where there are any breaks in the cloud. Generally cold, but milder in the far north of Scotland. Through the following week it looks as though the high pressure centre will decline southeastwards and allow rain and gales to spread across northern and western areas, perhaps with occasional snow over Scottish hills. Still coldest in the southeast, the north mostly near normal.
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Oh yes they are Essan. BBC forecasting light snow for my area right now. Have to say I wouldnt be suprised. Its cold, grey skies.
well derby had snow but it was 1.6 outside so snow did not settle at the 6am as forecasted.
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See no snow for derby as the met office said ******* to that forcast.
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I am not really bothered about the snow but it makes me laugh winter is over remarks where i have recorded 5 night of -3 or lower ,thats winter weather, but it will snow on february the 8th a remarkable snowy day.
No it will be raining all the time.
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But bbc do not do a local forcast for every town and city that would be inpossabile to do. But if the amutar weather forcasters did that for every town and city where they live for the Met office and the bbc we will have a local weather forcast for our towns and citys all over the uk. I do publish a weekly weather forcast for derby Uk just to help bus companies and the traval area. So it's up to us to setup a petion to foward to the bbc and metO. I sure you will all agree.
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The whole uk does not want snow all the time in winter. we need 1 heaters in the sky every 10 cm of sky and we will have the perfect weather for us all in winter. I think turn Europe upside down and give spain our weather so the med sea contires like spain italy get the snow for a change. But we were part of mainland Europe at one time. And we get the perfect weather for many years to come.
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I think people are once again confusing computer generated graphics on websites for actual forecasts? Thought you'd know better by now?
Neither the MetO nor the BBC are forecasting snow anywhere this weekend.Niether do I but that what thier website as said.
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Does anybody know why the Met Office/BBC have on there graphics Cheshire down for snow early tommorow??
Same ast derbyshire in the east midlands.
******** to them it was 3am at frist for derbyshire now it's 6am so there must be grimelens in there computers.
Depression (981-1013mb)
Gale (961-980mb)
Storm (941-960mb)
Cyclone (less than 940mb)
Neither the MetO nor the BBC are forecasting snow anywhere this weekend.
The Midlands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 20
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I like milder weather in winter as it suits the older people better and disabled people better. I know it my own opinion but a lot of e-mails I get about my own weather forcasts 70% I get want milder winters and our normal summer. As on another weather forum that I'm a modarater of. We had a post about weather in the next 100 years and dussion about it. And I have been given charts for the 10 years only pridections. But people need to pm me for full details of it will be sent in about 7-9 weeks as due to the complex in prouceing it. will be sent by post only as if I E-mail it will 45 mins in sending it as it's over 80mb in size but on paper it is less as you'll get 30% of it.