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  1. With the core cold on our side of the NH for a change, even a zonal flow can deliver short sharp spells of cold as lows march across the UK arena, and Arctic air moves south: Most of that cold will be from the following ridge, so cold and dry after a cold front slides south. PM air following in the wake...
  2. 7-8c above average in many places is exceptional. You cannot spin it any other way! Of course, there is a variation throughout the UK, that is why we use CET. 13-15 c forecast for my location for the next 7 days. It is also extraordinary as it is not a one-day wonder! Although the Fohn effect has assisted in breaking the records today, those records no doubt were also subject to that effect! This is February!!!
  3. Yes, cannot argue with that! Amazing Feb for warmth, Kinross already at 16.7c! Foehn effect, may break Feb record? Wales should be close to breaking the record for Feb tomorrow! Feb CET now at +2.3c above climate! Front-loaded or rear-loaded, this Winter has fooled many of us!!!
  4. I did not say GFS verifies better. However, the ECM is beloved, even though it performs poorly at times, and acknowledging that is sensible. The 06z by D16 has the mean 850s at climate: Op, C and Para lead the colder routes.
  5. ECM upgrade coming mid-2019 so will be interesting if they have corrected the algorithmic bias for HP systems: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/upgrade-ecmwfs-forecasting-system-planned-june Those D8-10 erroneous winter charts may be a crowd pleaser but would lead to less disappointment in the long run if they are corrected!
  6. I would argue that the dynamics of the current NH profile will be favourable for colder than climate PM bursts this March. We have disruption to the PV 850s from the wedge of heights on the Pacific high latitude up till around D12. Although, as per this winter the PV will recover, the main 850's vortex looks like repositioning to our north. So less travel and colder origin. T228: At D16: Mean at D16; The potential for a cooler/colder than average PM flow, but more runs needed for clarity. Though for those in the south, not really a synoptic that will excite.
  7. As we were. UK HP until around D8-9, then the cyclonic westerly flood. At the moment it looks like when the gates to the Canadian vortex open it will be a rush of westerly cool zonality. That, of course, could change with some wave breaking, but more changeable D9-D? is the call. No sign of colder than average temps, just a return from these warmer waters to climate. Certainly, very little sign of any HLB'ing to bring in the sustained cold, that is, according to the GEFS. March could be a long & windy road with no sign of the trop PV wavering. No doubt the strat experts will advise on how the final warming is going, but the strat PV is looking resilient, and if there is coupling, maybe not a great early Spring, unless cold rain is your thing. As for the MJO, although active, I will wait till it shows itself to more than just background noise, as it has been most of the Winter before it gets anything more than a cursory glance.
  8. The models have, as expected, corrected their over-amping of heights to the north. They are now back to where they were indicating pre-X-flow. With the developments, we have sustained UK HP for another day or so, but by D10 it is sinking SE. Those extra two days have helped build up lower heights in the Canadian vortex, so a ready supply of cyclones awaiting their journey to our sector. By D16 the mean: AO>> The wedge of heights on the AsiaPac side directing the PV to the Atlantic region traversing to our north. We have seen this before this winter and it is usually transient, so maybe a week of March dedicated to some sort of zonal flow. The AO index heading south as that wedge messes around the Arctic fields. That wedge will eventually mix out or get drawn to similar pressure sources. Maybe further height rises in the UK/Atlantic region will find an opening and the cycle will restart. The wedge continues to send cold to lower latitudes but sadly the UK will need a reset to get the severe cold flow to the UK. However upper air as we near D16 is closer to climate: London>>> As @knocker mentioned, the jet stream is currently a powerhouse. see https://www.latimes.com/science/la-sci-sn-jet-stream-flight-20190219-story.html Watch out for the dust: https://twitter.com/MeteoGib/status/1098115396173991936 Some very mild air to come before month's end suggesting a CET of +4c above climate for Feb!!! Enjoy!
  9. Loved by many in here, the GFS-FV3, has been awful this Winter in modelling non-cold events. If it had been correct half the time we would be six-foot under most of mid-Winter. I was fearful without the old GFS, the ECM and new GFS coming up with those winter wonderland charts, it would be a nightmare getting any sense on this forum. At least we know the old GFS and we can extrapolate its nuances, and with ECM, the opposite side of the coin, we could get some clarity. But the two biggest models cold ramping would have been a monster! Hopefully, they correct it.
  10. ECM week 3 probability, warm or colder than climate: source: https://twitter.com/jfd118/status/1097837552579559424 Week 2 even higher probability.
  11. The ECM goes through phase 8 to phase 3 in 14 days at low amplitude. Bearing in mind the lack of MJO feedback this winter, isn't this likely to be a transient fluid pattern? I agree to ECM more likely to be correct. I just think that the MJO isn't a driver for wintry UK weather at the moment.
  12. As already mentioned the good part is that the bottled up cold will be heavily disrupted as a consequence of the wedges of heights moving into the Arctic fields: D8>> D16>> Its how we can get that to the UK with the omnipresent mobile wave activity in the Atlantic? We need a static Rossby wave NH profile to direct a sustained push from the north or east, PM air is not going to work in March! It has not worked for the UK so far this winter, the cold has constantly been sent the wrong way of marginal, so we do IMO need sustained blocking on the Atlantic side of the NH, not the current synoptic especially with respect to the PV being determined to not weaken per se, and to reform after every attack?
  13. Just my thoughts; I am not seeing any MJO forcing at the moment. What I see is a trop response to the current pattern. The wave train has ground to a temporary halt, due to extensive troughing to the east, and the UK arena is at the end of the line. Some energy from those HP cells is building north, to release that pressure, whilst the main thrust works a route to the south. That is why we are only seeing wedges into HL. They are not sustainable if the forcing is not from the MJO. Looking at the 500hPa temps I am not seeing wave propagation into higher latitudes: With wedges they will move within the flow so any cold steered to the UK will be temporary. Although there are some models suggesting the current active Rossy Wave interference may be subdued, we still have the downwelling Kelvin Wave mixing out the MJO signal (composite). Maybe the MJO lagged feedback will come later, but I am unsure why with the constructive interference so far this winter we can suddenly expect the MJO to override the base trop pattern? As for the models, this is 10 days away and we know they tend to overhype any pattern change and downgrade as we move to T0, so if it is indeed another false dawn we shall see that in the next day or so as newer data conflicts with climate composites.
  14. Models firming up on a few day's ago trends. HP dominated for the UK till D9-D10, then sinking high. Post D10; The wedge of heights over the Asia-Pac side means the Atlantic side gets the main drag of the PV circulating to our north. So, zonal, with PM bursts. Lots of cold air still bottled up in the Arctic due to the failure of the downwelling, plenty of cold uppers available for cold rain in the south and a wintry mix, up north. No sustainable cold ATM forecast as no HLB'ing. D16 mean: So the start of March, maybe looking at worst case scenario, changeable, unsettled and cool.
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