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  1. Yes, certainly would not get into any scientific paper as it is rather a poor example. However I was trying to make a small point, that flip-flops are more likely when the theme is inconsistent, rather than seemingly a trend as the GFS (may) currently show! I don't even think the experts can be decisive on the late December pattern so most of us are just drawing on experience and amateur knowledge to get a grasp of things.
  2. I thought the current cycle was WAFz going from the trop to strat leading to the PV push in the strat. That downwelling from strat to trop (PCH's) will come within a quick to 14-day time window after the reversal? Is that wrong?
  3. So from my untrained understanding, zonal winds will reverse between Dec 24 & Dec 29 (as per GEFS variations) and then maybe up to 14 days for a trop response? So by mid-next-week, we should see something showing in the GEFS that we could attribute to the SSW? We are heading into prime Wintertime, so for once an SSW can deliver some wintriness, rather than be wasted on a cool Spring!
  4. Yes, changes run to run, but each run maintaining the same theme, just timing and spatial variations. The 06z compared to the 0z on GFS differ but are both pretty zonal from start to finish. If we were getting some blocked charts or some other potential run to run then I would agree on your implied comment, but at the moment (usual caveats) that is far from the case. D10 ECM mean: All can change and no doubt will, but when is the pertinent question?
  5. I try not to post when cold charts are showing, especially when I believe they are unlikely to happen as it is clearly taken the wrong way! So I just add my thoughts in quieter times as to what is going wrong, just musings from an amateur, so please take it for what it is, no conspiracy I assure you! Of course it can all flip, but I am not seeing any strong background signal in the medium term, so until I do, just reporting what I see and why all the FI eye candy is just that. Cheers.
  6. I think we all expected the GFS (yesterday 12z) to backtrack viz developments around D10, ergo Greenland, as it has only small cluster support, and it was likely overdoing pattern changes as it does at that range. GEM keeps the wedge of heights but simply there is no cold to draw and we probably end milder than average (IMBY). ECM is consistently bad for cold. Although the upstream pattern is not flat-flat, it might as well be, as any attempted ridge development just gets shoved east in the flow, helping with that fluid non-blocked upstream profile. The lack of any Pacific Wave strength is meaning that the trop PV although ripe for the taking instead can just meander around with little disturbance, still showing no sign of wanting to reform. Of course, this is also a negative for trop to strat would almost certainly be a precursor for a more potent SSW. All in all, we really do need the pattern to reset, or an early SSW, as the current repeating pattern hasn't worked so far this Winter, so I for one want rid ASAP.
  7. Yes, for all the Met Office upbeat forecasts for Nov/Dec these two months are currently both in the Top 5 milder than average CET's for 2018! For sure, at the moment, this will not be a front-loaded cold winter for the UK. Not that the experts on this forum were suggesting this but it does appear that at the moment the background signals are not supporting the longevity of cold spells, though the "potential" has at least been evident compared to other years. My own thoughts remain that an SSW is our best chance of sustainable cold in the New Year. As for the GFS 06z op, no real support, the mean T850s remains close or just above the seasonal mean pretty much through the whole of FI: The good thing this Winter is that the Op cannot be dismissed with alacrity as such an outcome remains viable, whereas in previous years such charts could be readily dismissed! So fingers and toes crossed...
  8. Hi The warming forecast looks to be on track which is great... ...just wondering as I look at the 30mb heights for the stratosphere, and I don't remember the PV being so large previous years? Will that make a full SSW more difficult? The forecast for heights for Boxing Day: What are the expert's thoughts?
  9. We can see from the jet, the problem we have in keeping the Atlantic at bay, and why the ICON blows the block away on the 12z from Friday: Unless the jet is currently being overemphasized it will tough to expect the block pushing west.
  10. I get this is a cold bias forum and you will be surprised to know that I am a cold lover but I try to be grounded in my expectations. Please, let's be nicer to each other as I am hopeful this Winter could be very good for UK cold?
  11. Hi I must misunderstand a meridional flow, I usually equate a flat pattern when the yellows stay mid-latitude, is that not the case? Of course, you can get residue heights in the flow that remains relatively flat or Polar heights in a flat NH profile! I wasn't ruling that out, but my argument was about wave attacks and looking at the GEFS not really seeing consistent support for those yellows on the 500mb charts pushing north?
  12. Musing on D5 onwards, we all agree now that there is a push of heights from T24-T96. That is not what we are talking about, its the sustainability of any block and its westward ingress!
  13. I think that this non-easterly ship has sailed, all we are doing is hope casting for the UK to be sandwiched between the Atlantic and the cold. There is nothing coming from the east to suggest the block can retrogress west, in fact, all models show a fluid wave moving in the flow from the US forcing the NH profile east!. All that has happened is that the models have corrected the timing of the flow, the synoptic outcome remains the same, a brief colder upper air flow for the east with little of consequence apart from maybe a snow to rain event for higher ground when the Atlantic moves in. For the record at T192 no GEFS show the block in place with only one member showing residue heights to the north! This current stalemate of a flat NH profile is bad for wave propagation and bad for any short-term meridional Atlantic building blocks. We really need wave attacks to finish off the strat and the forecast setup is not going to help long-term? Hopefully, we get the SSW sooner rather than later as the two misses this year suggest a repeating pattern is going to leave us hanging for cold and an SSW maybe if we are lucky, fulfill the obvious potential this Winter promises for the UK.
  14. GEFS mean and Control on 06z defy their op and offer the better option: Early days for sure, but nice to see there is this option!
  15. The GFS and ECM vary upstream with the US heights. The GFS has them considerably stronger which forces the pattern east, and thwarting any attempt for the Atlantic wave to impact: I am not sure if they meet in the middle that will be of much help to the UK? The GFS outcome would no doubt be the worst-case scenario medium term as that push would sweep away the Arctic Heights and enable a more progressive outcome for the PV becoming less fractured! The ECM keeps the wintry potential alive. All above my pay grade so await further clues...