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  1. Interestingly the GFS 06z instead of moving towards the ECM longevity of higher uppers, it in fact curtails the warmer upper air 12 hours earlier. Also the max temps even more subdued than the 0z run! Friday struggling to max at 23c in the SE: On Saturday is the peak of the plume: Less than Tuesday when the uppers are lower?
  2. Good step by GFS towards the ECM on this run: T102
  3. Still big differences in how GFS and ECM handle the cut-off low: This does impact how far west the higher uppers ingress and to the length of the hot spell and of course whether we get an Atlantic ridge at D10? The 06z another step back east of the pattern compared to the 0z. So which is correct?
  4. GEM still looks great for upper air temps:
  5. The GFS 12z may hold onto the warm uppers for the south, but we lose the defined heights and instead, a mix of the upper air, so looks a pretty wet run for southerners? Later the cut off low bullseye UK for extreme wet. Not a great run TBH but all subject to change.
  6. Looking at the D16 strat profile and we can see why the trop pattern looks dire... D16 strat>>D16 trop>>> ...back with a vengeance since the SSW. A wet cool start to Spring definitely the form choice. No forcing from the sub-tropics apparent and the MJO looks like having minimal effect on the UK region. On the surface, for the south, cold rain at worst, windy at times, a cool breeze as the lows moves east, all rather Autumnal and it looks like we are paying for the non-downwelling with a belligerent trop PV: London>>> No sign of mid or high latitude blocking so the chances of anything resembling a late cold wintry burst is a bust ATM. The CET of +3.2c (27th) above the climate is astonishing and I would think that many forecasters have had epic Winter fails. As for the SSW downwelling, I remain to be convinced how much that impacted on the trop pattern Jan & Feb: source: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101143674883317760 So to summarize, zonal to westerly flow for D1-D? remains the guide and a bit after the Lord Mayors Show from my perspective.
  7. Here is the latest on the GFS FV3: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf They have put any roll out on hold with no date set for release. That is no surprise as it was clear to see that the FV3 was hopeless in (potential) cold scenarios from late last year. It clearly is unfit for purpose and any cold pattern forecast should be treated with caution. Still no change in the medium term from the models. We announce the arrival of the Atlantic by the end of the week and expect at least ten days of zonal PM air. Temps just below average but feeling cooler if those cyclones are as brisk as modelled. Still losing the Pac Wedge around D8-10, opening the PV to that region. That should, in theory, allow better wave breaking for mini-ridges and maybe further wedges injected into higher latitudes. That would put the easterly and northerly options in the mix. But that is way out in FI at the moment, but one to watch. A cool March looks odds on, maybe cold at times, changeable from week 2 after a wet and windy week 1.
  8. Looks like it is location specific: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/gcpu5w5gx
  9. ECM either has failed miserably or that is an erroneous input. I am just south of London and it was 9.7c at midnight in my area according to the Met. So clearly the GFS on the mark there! Currently, 15.8c so both as usual under-estimating highs.
  10. So, the main variable was where the Pacific wedge of heights would drift after D6? At one point it looked like it would cross the Arctic field, hence a small trend for the AO to lower. Current a very positive AO: So any hope of an Arctic outbreak diminishes. So with the Atlantic moving in this week, PM is the source for any modified cold. A shame as lots of cold air to tap into, but sums this Winter up. Anyway, the US will benefit from that floating Pac Wedge. It moves to Alaska/NW Canada before being consumed and will direct several cold bursts into the US (the usual suspect). Once the wedge sinks, this opens up the trop PV to stretch its legs further afield (post D12/13 acc GFS) driving a very mobile NH pattern. No current sign of any tropical forcing as we reach D16, so zonal, cool, wet at times, but maybe trending to more wave breaking, so post D15 possibly more frequent drier zones (more so the south). Closer to home, another three days of extremely mild weather, before the Atlantic spoils the party!
  11. The models seem to be showing solid confidence in the upcoming pattern, so little to report viz cold. UK HP for another 4 days then 2 days of trough disruption as the HP hands over to the Atlantic. Zonal then up till D? though less likely the very cold variety as the Atlantic/Euro/Azores High tries to push north, ergo less cool and drier in the south possibly (the op highlights this, but tentative ATM). Around D9-D10 a chunk of PV send PM air across the UK, so a chilly few days there. With the trop PV showing few signs of relaxing, maybe coupling with the strat, I would suggest the MJO signal will be possibly muted as the base state reigns. If Winter is to have a late flourish then now likely the second half of March. However, there are no signals for this and based on the rest of this Winter, my hopes are low for a final hurrah! The CET is already at +2.7c above climate, so rare warmth in February, and with November and December each around +2c above climate, this has been an exceptionally mild winter, against all the expectations. We will probably pay for it with a cool and wet Spring, unfortunately...
  12. With the core cold on our side of the NH for a change, even a zonal flow can deliver short sharp spells of cold as lows march across the UK arena, and Arctic air moves south: Most of that cold will be from the following ridge, so cold and dry after a cold front slides south. PM air following in the wake...
  13. 7-8c above average in many places is exceptional. You cannot spin it any other way! Of course, there is a variation throughout the UK, that is why we use CET. 13-15 c forecast for my location for the next 7 days. It is also extraordinary as it is not a one-day wonder! Although the Fohn effect has assisted in breaking the records today, those records no doubt were also subject to that effect! This is February!!!
  14. Yes, cannot argue with that! Amazing Feb for warmth, Kinross already at 16.7c! Foehn effect, may break Feb record? Wales should be close to breaking the record for Feb tomorrow! Feb CET now at +2.3c above climate! Front-loaded or rear-loaded, this Winter has fooled many of us!!!
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