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  1. Nasty storm if it verifies: More robust upper trough over the Azores so maybe better heights upstream on this run, at least for a while: May sustain a better colder flow. All subject to change as very fluid ATM.
  2. Looking at the latest Cohen blog: He seems to favour this at the moment but remains hopeful there will be a strat disruption in February, but nothing major. I have also noted on the Twitter'sphere that the WWB is likely strat coupling which would adhere to the Cohen theory. It seems that the very strong sPV has been the downfall of this winter, which logically is no surprise, and that possibly we are in a long-term pattern... ...the winter is not quite over yet and we can only hope that the disruption does occur and not too late to just ruin Spring!
  3. The usual trend for that possible NW'ly on the GFS 06z with the mini-wave more subdued like the ECM and a satellite low off the main low to the north warming out the uppers. So anything wintry now almost certainly needing altitude: GFS 06zECM 0z> So if we look at the uppers, they reflect the downgrade in the mini-wave: 06z> 0z> So shorter colder flow moderated less cool. Looks like similar to ECM with milder uppers from D9.
  4. Those many D10 ECM runs promising something brief but cold for the North, another fail. The mini-wave, now barely a ripple: ECM> GFS> GEM> The upper air is moderated accordingly.The GFS remains more potent with a 48h cold flow of uppers, pretty standard winter fayre even in crap winters but worthy of a mention this season. The GEM is now blowing up that low so washes out the uppers (as per previous GFS run), so maybe ignore this GEM run. The GEFS post-D10 mainly zonal with the jet running through the UK, in fact the op is one of the better runs which is sad in itself. The mean: Still no sign of forcing, MJO or whatever. The tPV looks like it is winding down, so as we go through February chances improving with even moderate forcing for that bottled cold to flush south somewhere in the NH: D4> D16> ^^^Very similar design viz pattern, but maybe less strength; straw clutching it may indeed be!
  5. ...though compared to this morning's ECM, still lack of clarity, though both cold and that maintains that theme for around D8-D12. D10>>
  6. No blown up low (N of Scotland) as per the 06z so no warming out of the uppers and a more sustained colder flow: 06z12zuppers> So rain from the cold front for most but wintry showers following.
  7. Sums up what many of us are thinking, that even with good background signals and the following hype when the MJO goes blocked, there has been in the last two winters an underlying atmospheric state that has muted these signals. How long this winter spoiler persists and why, we will know in time? The GFS 06z for D7 brief NW'ly looks banked now, just how cold those uppers get? The 06z slightly dampening them but all within the envelope and still far enough away for upgrades: No ECM conversion yet viz the phasing of the low.
  8. The GFS out to D16 repeating zonal mini-ridge synoptic so cold NW'ly turning Westerly possible, but at this range those uppers only cursory: op> mean> However, compared to the mean^^^ the op at the best end of the spectrum for cold for the favoured. GEM gives us that brief NW'ly from D8-10 but already toning down the T850's and we know GFS overdoes those, so any snow looking like hills and mountains to the NW & W. ECM maintains the run from last night in terms of synoptic, the delay of the low off the eastern seaboard, D10 on ECM but still D8 on the GEM and GFS! A colder version of that twist from ECM this morning and should be trusted as much as a yesterday's 12z till the other models jump to it. The mean has moved towards the GFS though still not there, probably interfered with by the smaller cluster supporting the op? Best to ignore ECM after D7 ATM. FI remains poor, now up to Feb 5, a short month as it is, and little sign, apart from noise, of any MJO forcing or any HLB'ing. The tPV remains the driver as it ebbs and flows to our north.
  9. ECM D9 today compared to D10 yesterday 12z: GEM and GFS at T216: ECM last two D10 charts were probably overdoing the heights and the GEM and GFS moved towards it, and agree. I expected the 12z from ECM to just adjust that LP cell exiting the US east conus, but the 12z phased it slower! That low should drive the mini-ridge east forcing the colder flow (as per GFR/GEM) but it stalls and even post-D10 the low and ridge remain to our NW rather than on their west to east march! New spot by ECM, or simply ECM D9-10 inconsistency? The mean supports that feature, so puzzling, but I have seen whole suites get it wrong before, so low confidence ATM in ECM D10 (as always). ECM D10 mean: Pretty awful...
  10. Yes, and replaced by cold rain for us in the south at sea-level: Even a colder than average NW'ly is not much use for southern snow lovers. The Downs and other hills may get a coating from the initial cold flow around D8, assuming it verifies for once. Even the north on this run after D10 will struggle to see settled snow TBH (more of a westerly). Then at the end of FI the trend for anomaly UK heights is maintained. So February may start mild as January did (SW'ly for the south)? The mean suggests from D12 for a slow push north of the Iberian high though rather subdued, so for many a westerly zonal flow (worse of both worlds): 2m temps: Nothing resembling a cold spell in my locale if you take the mean^^^. Maybe at the end of FI the tPV splitting, one Siberia (daughter) and the main Canada. So that may coincide with the heights building to our south?
  11. Looking at the more amplified early charts that SteveMurr posts may be good short-term for that trough but conversely on most GEFS and the GEM where it was modelled on the 0z it builds back a high close to the UK and it means after D10 less cold for FI compared to the 0z due to the where the high sits. Of course that could change, but for the longer term I think the early amplification will have a net effect of milder runs as a whole. GEM: T216T336 GFS T216: T294 T300:
  12. Not much to say really, same old, same old right out till D16. We are locked into the current pattern of no northern blocking. Maybe the jet further south, or maybe not, if it does then likely cold-zonal rather than cool-mild. But NW'ly can only get you so far for wintry weather especially the further SE you are. GEM moves towards ECM at D10 with a mini-ridge in the westerly flow so maybe 48h of cooler uppers, though upper T850's cut off early so a watered down cold rain scenario mostly. GFS flatter again but probably too progressive as per usual so expect a shift towards GEM/ECM. Maybe as suggested repeated pattern though still the mean in FI suggests anomalous heights building near the UK, and that maybe the MJO signal; dying in 7 and moving back to 5, so that is subject to change. D16 mean: No need to comment on the above, a picture paints a thousand words. As for the hope that the +IOD would relax, maybe second thoughts on that: May explain why we are stuck in this rut. As for the strat, I suspect that if an SSW happens it will be too late to save winter, but maybe a cool damp Spring again? Still no sign of the MJO/WWB showing up in the models for anomalous height rises and even with the lag that should be helping in FI, so maybe other forces dampening the effect? Though after D10 we do see mid-lat Pacific, Russian and Iberian highs; that may indeed be the extent of the MJO forcing within the whole atmospheric mix? Hoping the trough at D8+ stalls a bit and we get a more potent cold upper flow like the GEM: Though the ECM has moved away from this in the latest run and GFS yet to board that train...
  13. It is what it is when the NH profile is zonal, it is the best we can expect. But for most it will be fleeting followed by a rise in temps and for the south a bit "meh". However, I will be grateful of something more interesting and some cold days followed by a NW'ly cold airflow will do for the time being. Maybe a rinse and repeat to follow if the pattern does not change. Though I would add that post-D8 remains fluid as the three main models show at D10: They are a variation on a theme and usually they meet in the middle, and that will be another damp squib. It is not until D12 that the GFS op gives us that NW'ly (supported by control). But this keeps being delayed so it seems on the never never at the moment! Neither the GEM or GFS mean supports the ECM op or the GFS D12 NW'ly so a way to go before we get unanimity for a 48h cold burst and compared to the January so far small pickings indeed (3.9c above average before today)! We shall see...
  14. No big changes on the 06z. The jet further south, so more unsettled for the south compared to the 0z. The tPV still in full-on mode with zero signs of any forcing, from the MJO or whatever: Chances in this setup for the odd PM blast, transitional, and likely to be watered down as we approach T0. Short-term, clear skies, so cold high for a couple of days, then more cloudy, so milder. This maybe the closest the south gets to a winter in 2019/20, so make the most, and enjoy...
  15. The three models at D10 all suggest that if the 24h mini-trough in the westerly flow does provide a mini-ridge and a transient cold flow, a northerly is low-probability, more like a NW'ly: As we would expect ECM the most amplified and low-verification, the GEM much flatter at that period with no mini-trough and the GFS in the middle ground. Either way for the south, pretty much a non-event. The GFS trending as per yesterday with UK heights build from post-D10, giving UK anomalous heights right out into D16+. The mean supports this well: Though variations on a theme and the op was the milder end of the envelope. Too early to see if this is a change to early Spring, but as we enter February not a great turn of events as it currently stands (caveats & disclaimers). Anyways dire doesn't really cover it as we see the models take us out of the coldest phase of winter.
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