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  1. The Russian High (block) is the game changer over the last 36-hours and has slowed the Atlantic and modelling pressure drops near the UK with colder air channelling to our NW/N: 36h ago chart>12z> D11 profile:
  2. Again another settled FI run from the GFS: Also another with some very warm uppers and mild temps, a snapshot: Looking lovely Springlike spell if it verifies.
  3. The GFS op still consistent with the anomalous heights close to the UK and it has dragged most of its members in that direction, op: Pressure> That is a solid trend. Temps vary due to the exact location of the core heights but both the control and op now hinting at some high uppers with support: Early days to be confident of either the solution or some very mild weather. With the Feb CET likely to be around 2.7c above average another warm month would not be going against the grain, although the first week of March may be slightly cooler than average. The ECM model is still not on board though I get the impression it is moving ever so slightly in that direction. GEM is not on board either. So still low confidence in the GFS solution post D8. The next 7-days a relenting of the rain intensity for most: Chilly feeling week ahead with some frosts as we get three mini-ridges moving through (ECM agrees) after Jorge moves away.
  4. For those in the flood hit regions, for the outdoors workers who are soaked to the skin, for enjoying a brisk walk without the risk of being blown or washed away, for maybe some sunshine to brighten up the days, or just for a change from the gloomy rain fest. In any case as I said, JFF ATM as ECM not quite in the same ball park, D10: ECMGFS
  5. Another good run from the GFS op: HP building in. Warm uppers on this run as well, have to go to N Africa to get uppers like this in our sector: Of course, JFF, that core of heights could meander east or west and that would make changes to the UK outcome viz temps and conditions. But hopeful of some dry and warmer conditions very soon.
  6. Consistency from the GFS up to D10. D8 looks like HP building in: So maybe 3-5 days of settled weather from next weekend, which will be a nice change. Low heights over Iberia the trigger. Of course, the ECM going the slower route towards higher pressure. GFS D11: Could see some milder temps as well as settled.
  7. The GFS 06z op has an upper low over Iberia and that props up higher pressure. At D10 those sort of features should be given low credence and the mean would be a better choice. D10: D10 mean>D16 mean> This does suggest the current GFS route of heights building a bit further north as the tPV relents to our NE on its move to the core being in Siberia is viable: Mean d10-d16> FWIW this is a trend, but JFF as FI it is.
  8. No high confidence but the GFS after D8 would bring settled and eventually a milder flow for a week or so: D16 It has been hinting at something like this is one form or other for some days so hope springs eternal, though that is all it is ATM! As for ECM at T144, that is one chart and needs to be put in context and if you watch that wedge, it moves from Iceland in the westerly flow towards Russia, which has been the signal for most of the runs with it showing: Nothing to suggest any change in the zonal flow over the UK for the next 10-days on the ECM and not that cold either.
  9. Not saying either way, but we know when snow is forecast the nearer to T0 the more accurate the forecast, That was possibly based on the 06z with updated data from the 12z. The 18z should in theory be more accurate. Watching the MetOffice videos it changes every hour but it doesn't look too intensive on the more recent charts. Hopefully those over 150m will see some white stuff in the hot zone. Us in the Surrey area look like missing out on anything again. Funny enough my app was showing snow for tomorrow morning before 4pm but has since updated to rain only which ties in with the downgrades. In any case the news story is more likely rain and wind for the weekend and the GFS is again very stormy: Gusts>
  10. Yes, ECM has impressed with it's consistent fail at D10 when height rises are involved. Yesterday I ignored it as I think there had been 20+ previous fails and statistically the probability of yesterday's D10 verifying was very low: yesterday>Today> We have also seen false dawns in FI from the GFS as it picks up a signal, then it crashes back to the ongoing pattern. The D16 mean offers little hope of a change pre-mid-March: The tPV is moving around to our north so little sign that a ridge could sustain but maybe a brief respite from the zonal flow is possible. Any wedge help would be welcome but they are only worth a cursory look till they reach D5. A mundane end to a rotten winter, 2.6c above average for Jan CET and currently 3.1c above for Feb! That is as far away from a cold winter the worst nightmare could come up with!
  11. The core of the precipitation is well into France on the ICON, the SE gets some rain and maybe a band of light rain, sleet in the Midlands:
  12. Some perspective on the GFS snow charts. For today: However, the MetOffice says rain apart from maybe hills (over 200m). Also the low on Thursday AM to clip the south coast with no snow and weekend more intensive rain. They do not have any mention of uncertainty so they are going with ECM/UKMO charts. We shall see how the pros get on compared to the other models?
  13. That was a wedge not a block per se. They are notorious to predict and they rarely hang around, getting pushed with the general flow. Not one ECM D10 chart with northern heights has verified this winter so are puzzled why this one will? GFS has that wedge migrate faster on the westerly flow so is a non-feature in reality. The ECM mean does the same. The heights to the NE on the mean is the Russian High that has been of no help this winter and that is one thing that we do not want. I find it hard to be inspired by the next 16-days and Cohen's blog is confident a positive AO remains for that time period so basically more of the same with the odd interlude like this week where the scraps of cold may get some snow to some. Hopefully with the +AO we may see the bulk of the tPV relax in our sector to get a settled spell, but based on the repeating pattern it will not have longevity. No sign of any tropical forcing. Maybe you see it different? The Cohen blog is quite interesting as he suggests the IOD was not the main reason for the mild winter: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
  14. If that is D8-D10 I have no interest, as ECM is a miscreant in that time range and should be ignored. The D10 mean suggests the op is doing its usual, of overplaying heights, 25mb>mean!:
  15. Not really looked lately as there is no real changes into March, the tPV dominating with no HLB'ing. Any wedges tend to move within that westerly flow so no sustained minor blocking getting into the reliable. So wet, cool, windy at times for my locale. The Thursday low an M4 north event most likely as we would expect: Any snow settling over hills in the Midlands will be gone within hours. Saturday sees another possible snow event to higher ground but too early to pinpoint most at risk. On the GFS 0z little respite from further rain events with maybe some wintry stuff to the usual suspects but for the SE a washout and although further chances of snow the margins are very fine (D10 an example) though the M4 corridor look to be on the right track for these repeated attempts: The mean uppers hovering a degree or two below the average from D4 onwards with few options in the ensembles for anything colder in my area: TBH a nice warm early Spring is preferable to more rain and a cool flow, but I suppose some may see some fleeting snow but a bit of a wimper as the model heads towards mid-March.
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