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  1. Yes it looks like the current weak surface Artic high drops some heights over Scandinavia and that sinks towards the Azores wave. A weak feature with little WAA to sustain but it does alter the flow of colder uppers to give us a very cold draw for a few days. Not sure the prospect of snow is that great even in the SE/South, though flurries are possible. More a UK cold high for most than an easterly and certainly no block per se, the NH is driven currently by the PV meandering with little strat to Trop forcing, and minimal wave activity from the mid lats. As usual the models over egg these setups, exaggerated HP now being more realistically modelled. Not really seeing any potential for high latitude blocking even with the PV weak, just no action to kill it off. All very frustrating bearing in mind the strong SSW. It does make you think that even with exceptional background signals a memorable Winter is still very elusive for our little island.
  2. Maybe the strat to trop connect has not done the job. Certainly, the trop really doesn't look like it has been destroyed by the SSW. The models are forecasting one HLB and a robust Polar Low (PV) meandering around the NH ring, and in fact, as blocks go not much use as it won't sit still. At the end of the D10 ECM we have this: If the SSW is not doing its thing then it is no surprise that GFS and now ECM have picked up the signal that this is just a short cold burst. ECM had some unusual Synoptics on the 0z run which were unlikely to be repeated that held off the inevitable warming and now it follows the GFS and GEM. I think that we should be happy we are going to get 5 plus days out of this pattern, it just hasn't worked out on this SW (assuming the models have the next 10 days right). As for the ECM, the op can be a nut case, it tends to sit in small clusters when we have a complex setup, offering us wild outcomes. As I ignored the 0z run, I would ignore the 12z and hopefully something more akin to the GFS, that may keep the north in a colder pattern for longer. Then again it could be entropy as the models are unable to draw on a dataset to give us a reasonable solution to this unusual situation? Who knows? Just thinking aloud.
  3. As for the next four days, not much to discuss, winter is coming and it will be cold, and snowy for some (not all). The low on Thursday looks like it could bring a memorable snowfest, especially to those north of the M4, but too early to be confident either way. Further on, the difference between the GFS and ECM around D7 onwards is what causes the breakdown on the GFS. The ECM manages to keep the lows within the upper Atlantic trough flow, they, therefore avoid pumping up WAA north, and instead push it east. The GFS pushes the lows as the main feature and they drag up the warm air towards the UK and inevitably (ATM) warm up our sector. Can ECM produce two runs in a row where these lows fill and remain within the trough? Does it seem a less likely scenario? We will find out soon...
  4. ...and let's not forget the GEM who also has a similar low spoiler next week and the GEM brings in a breakdown: My opinion is that the low moving north will drag a milder flow in the UK quadrant and could scupper chances of cold further down the line. I suspect if we are to get a long-term significant cold spell we need ECM to verify.
  5. Hard to see any mid-term potential in the current output. Looks like we have a one wave attack with an EPO ridge from about D5; with the Azores high and Russian high, neither showing much hope of pushing north. The EPO ridge then acts as a conduit to push the polar lows towards Greenland. Inevitably that will lead to leakage downstream and the UK in the firing line for an unsettled period after the Azores/Uk ridge gets sunk. Hard to see this changing much, the GFS has been pretty solid with this of late. There are a few GEFS going elsewhere afterward's, but at D10 the majority offer the same story, hence the mean: D10 mean: D15 mean: Rare with a setup like this that we will get anything other than the usual zonal muck (after we lose next week's pleasant high). It's a stubborn setup usually, but this winter I suspect it is simply a passing phase that coldies will have to endure and look for a better profile in the New Year. It's from around D12 when the next Azores wave gets pushed into Europe and tries to ridge north, that the GEFS offer some interest, but transient and minor league winter fayre with that type of pattern. So assuming GFS suit is on the ball we have a 2-3 week period whilst we move past the next phases.
  6. Nice to see the ECM join the GFS, although variation on a theme at this range. Both models suggest by end of D8 a wedge of upper heights is undercut, keeping the cold coming. Details will take some time to clarify but lots of potential with this scenario. I think BA suggested this a couple of days ago, good spot if it verifies! The longwave pattern on the ECM is excellent, with a Pacific wave and Arctic High, this keeps the Polar Lows cut off and keeps the Canadian vortex subdued. If that profile is correct then very feasible model output. The initial northerly is certain now so we need consistent runs with the subsequent slider setup...
  7. The GEFS are mainly on board at D7, with the Control following the OP, and the mean supportive: D7: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168 D8: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192 So we would need a complete U-Turn by the GFS suite if the OP is wrong. Reasonable to expect ECM to move in that direction shortly.
  8. GEM continues to follow its mean with a 24 hour toppler late next week and zonal going forward based on an Azores high. Would not put much faith in that normally, but a carbon copy of ECM 0z, so concerning. Something will have to give soon so no point worrying about snow chances Thursday/Friday till we get the cross-model agreement on the Atlantic Block/wedge synoptic.
  9. The EPO ridge modeled stronger on 12z, similar to 0z. That will just fire up the jet and power through off US trough flattening downstream longwave pattern, UK included and killing any HLB: If the Eastern Pacific Ridge continues to be forecast I think we will miss out on this chance. No surprise these lows are blowing up with so much energy in the jet, and they will wash out the cold uppers. Still time for upstream LW corrections but there is now inter-model support for the E Pacific wave and that has been a pain in recent times for UK cold.
  10. + EPO and PV lobe over Canada/Greenland = fast jet + flatter pattern UK segment. Best we can hope for is cold zonal in medium term. After mid Dec flattening EPO so reset. See what that brings?
  11. I can assure you the upper air temp over London is not currently 13c! That graph looks like something went wrong. This is the latest from Meteociel: Looking pleasant, even mild for a few days, then remaining dry but not so warm, though possibly still above average away from a strengthening cooler wind later in the period. After that (D8 plus), the usual uncertainty at that range, but a chilly spell looking the likely favorite from the recent output. Though the fast-moving Rossby wave activity due will mean periods of cooler and milder interludes as the wave(s) propagates east. The MJO signal overriding any El-Nino trend for the next 2 weeks and then hopefully we will see what November holds going forward.
  12. So no surprises. My expectation of this "snowy spell" was low bearing in mind the repeated pattern of this winter, a short snowy shot every month, that in the SE was rather meh. Despite all the background signals the over riding factors have been the PV mobility and for the UK the Azores high/ridge. The PV has killed any HLB by keeping it in the mid latitudes as it moves from Canada to Siberia and back again. This propensity has meant the omnipresent Azores has sent energy into any potential Atlantic sector HLB and sunk it. The background MJO or forcing has failed to disrupt the pattern long enough to force a reset, hence the next two weeks will be wiped off from wintry potential (apart from possibly a passing low bringing colder uppers for a few hours). At the end of the GFS (D16) the mean has the PV lobe over NE Canada so maybe cooler zonal, but at the end of February that will not cut it for us in the south. From late Sunday to the end of the run the south well above average uppers till D14: My summation of this winter is even when signals are good, and the pros were spot on, the Atlantic has been very much a bit player the last three months, we do need other factors to play ball for the UK to benefit from a snowy picture. Yes the SE had a week or so of continental cold, but cold for cold sake has never been my mantra, rather cold as a foundation for snow. I have no interest in a cool Spring so some on hilltops get transient snow; here's hoping that we don't have a repeat of last year's Spring, we have seen once a pattern gets entrenched it can be a nuisance for weeks and weeks. As for the next two weeks maybe some warmth with temps above 12c and with the sun, could be very pleasant from Wednesday for a week or so.
  13. We can look at the D10 charts from the big three: What is obvious is again the ECM propensity to blow up heights, so hard to accept that run as being repeated let alone the D10 outcome. GEM and GFS are similar but the GEFS mean at D10 much worse for cold, so again the ops will need to drag the ens in quickly, where as the trend is the other way at the moment: London ens ECM 12z: We know the ECM op has little support the last few runs as it is notorious for finding the outlier solution in these setups.Need the ens to start to move towards it otherwise its only a matter of time before we see the op move towards the ens. The overview is that we lose the trop Pacific wave by around D8 and the PV on the GEFS now heading back to Siberia by D16. That to my eye means not a blocked pattern so any cold spell is likely to be transient and it also suggests MLB rather than HLB after around D10, so UK high again? What i dont see is the ECM D8 euro wave being even close to the outcome (no GEFS close): Easy to conclude that ECM is as usual not very instructive when there is some height building and best to ignore at the moment. The GEM and GFS look closer to reality though they need to garner support from their ens as they are close to the best case scenarios.
  14. I was just pointing out the UK perspective, and of course your location the Europe picture is more interesting, as it really does not have much interest if Poland is snowed in and the UK is in a westerly flow; the same for the US going into the freezer when the forecast was much milder! For my location the block being more persuasive has made little difference as to surface conditions, that being my point. I have no interest in that block bringing a continental flow for the last remnants of the winter as I want snow rather than cold. The GEM moving from one cluster to another: 0z 12z Which is my point re the models clueless at the moment. Expect changes run to run, cross and inter model.
  15. I think I am missing something as the last three days have been wet and the next 7/8 are forecast to be similar, with about 6 more spells of rain incoming from the west!!! For the UK it has not really made a difference and I for one never expected full on zonal once the PV to the NW dissipates (in a week or so). So we still would have had the forecast 10 day or so spell of Atlantic, maybe the UK the end of the line rather than Europe, but essentially the same either way! IMO that was a good spot by the models of this westerly flow and as our many years of experience tells us the models probably overplayed the Atlantic viz the stubborness of the block. I could argue that if the block was over run by the Atlantic then any forcing may have been more favourable to the UK re an Atlantic ridge rather than having to rely on the retrogression of the block to our east, which rarely goes to plan? There remains much uncertainty, with several possible outcomes, from UK high to euro block to maybe a bit higher blocking. The models tend to play around with these possibilities at this range and anybodies guess? What we do need is this downwelling from the warming to favour the UK as for us in the south it may be our last chance of decent snow chances. My thoughts are that the models are over zealous when a new signal is signposted and that they are more likely than not over doing the heights, as they have all winter, so I expect the models to reflect that in the next day or so (NB. As when a zonal spell is spotted the Atlantic is overdone, when blocking is modelled, they over play the heights).