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grca

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  1. Which model is going to be right then? The differences at 5 days are quite stark.. GFS 114hrs 6z run (0z was also identical at 120hrs to this) UKMO 120hrs 0z run You beat me to it Karlos :-)
  2. I think it would be safe to say that after the 20th there are a few options on the table... This for the Netherlands. I would love to know what is causing this uncertainty on such a regular basis in the models, it seems like a weekly drama at the moment - will it / wont it :-)
  3. I don't ever comment on the models and what they show on here so be gentle. To me none of the models have got this right yet after days 4-6, what is obvious is that this high over Scandi is not budging anywhere quickly though. The UKMO has been resolute holding the block but not finding a clean route for the lows to travel into mainland Europe - it does however hold the high in place without any sinking showing that it believes the most likely scenario is for this to remain roughly in place. This has been consistent now for days and most of the other models have been moving towards it evo
  4. Maybe Catacol, GP or Tamara might know the real answer here, could be faulty data? But where has the AAM reading gone to on this latest plot over night?
  5. Granted this is for the Netherlands, but the control run on ECM shows that the at least one of the high res op's still finds a path to very cold possibilities and in the short term too. Not saying this will happen though..
  6. Could be an interesting set of ensembles from the 6z, at around 162hrs I would suggest 12 or so members would go onto offer something more interesting. Ptb 3 is a cracker.
  7. Hi Tight Isobar, I am a fan of yours :-) just wondering what you make of the ensembles for the Netherlands from the ECM which have just come out? Does that not imply that the ECM Op is on the cold side compared to the rest of the suite?
  8. I am not the best at reading charts and I hope my posted charts show up as I see them on my computer :-) At day 5 the differences on the Alaskan ridge between the 3 main models we can see look very different, UKMO and GFS the closest and ECM slightly different by not building the secondary ridge behind the first poleward attempt. The GFS has a more organised low pressure system passing above the UK and the UKMO has a slack low directly over us, the differences I appreciate might just be timing. To the more learned posters here, would that not suggest that even day 5 currently in
  9. When the various models still show various solutions and there is no agreement is it correct to think that what is shown on each individual op run is going to be correct? It is obvious that currently in the accurate range of the models up to up 120hrs they agree, after this time we have a variation of solutions. Each person on this forum has his / hers own preferred outcomes be it mild or cold be it what they prefer or what we personally would wish. What we have tonight is a move towards a colder solution which tomorrow could be gone, however in the last 3 days I personally prefer tonight'
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