grca

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0&runpara=1 At around this period (132hrs) the // is showing some heights rising in the Atlantic between our lows. Is it possible that with a little less forcing from the Jet Stream that maybe this height rise can gain some traction? Even if it only produces a wedge of heights being left behind? Sent from a long term lurker p.s. no idea how to link a picture but I am sure you can all find the image I was trying to show

Which model is going to be right then? The differences at 5 days are quite stark.. GFS 114hrs 6z run (0z was also identical at 120hrs to this) UKMO 120hrs 0z run You beat me to it Karlos :-)

I think it would be safe to say that after the 20th there are a few options on the table... This for the Netherlands. I would love to know what is causing this uncertainty on such a regular basis in the models, it seems like a weekly drama at the moment - will it / wont it :-)

I don't ever comment on the models and what they show on here so be gentle. To me none of the models have got this right yet after days 4-6, what is obvious is that this high over Scandi is not budging anywhere quickly though. The UKMO has been resolute holding the block but not finding a clean route for the lows to travel into mainland Europe - it does however hold the high in place without any sinking showing that it believes the most likely scenario is for this to remain roughly in place. This has been consistent now for days and most of the other models have been moving towards it evolution recently. I think the word battleground is not a bad description but not a battleground which is a snowy one (yet anyway). This could go anyway but in my opinion based on what I can see in the daily output over the last days + some (small) knowledge of prior history of these setups I don't think we have yet seen any model show us the likely correct direction of travel, I also believe that this holding pattern could stretch for a few more days yet with the UKMO for example spilling out the same picture for days 4-6 until it finds the right solution. Whilst it holds the pattern, in fact the longer this picture holds in my opinion the more likelihood or chances are that we could get the trough disruption into Europe and find the easterly and cold. Just my thoughts.

Maybe Catacol, GP or Tamara might know the real answer here, could be faulty data? But where has the AAM reading gone to on this latest plot over night?

Granted this is for the Netherlands, but the control run on ECM shows that the at least one of the high res op's still finds a path to very cold possibilities and in the short term too. Not saying this will happen though..

Could be an interesting set of ensembles from the 6z, at around 162hrs I would suggest 12 or so members would go onto offer something more interesting. Ptb 3 is a cracker.

Hi Tight Isobar, I am a fan of yours :-) just wondering what you make of the ensembles for the Netherlands from the ECM which have just come out? Does that not imply that the ECM Op is on the cold side compared to the rest of the suite?

I am not the best at reading charts and I hope my posted charts show up as I see them on my computer :-) At day 5 the differences on the Alaskan ridge between the 3 main models we can see look very different, UKMO and GFS the closest and ECM slightly different by not building the secondary ridge behind the first poleward attempt. The GFS has a more organised low pressure system passing above the UK and the UKMO has a slack low directly over us, the differences I appreciate might just be timing. To the more learned posters here, would that not suggest that even day 5 currently indicate that this is where FI starts?

Could this be a start of upgrades for cold? Likely to change but at least this is at 144hrs and not 168+ Probably going to get blown away by 168 now I have posted something though..

Updated info... ECM short ensembles for De Bilt Netherlands, still showing that the op and control are at the bottom end of the clusters but a good sign in my opinion as they should be leading the way in picking up mid term changes.

Sorry mods, please delete this immediately after reading..way too many Tottenham supporters posting tonight pretending to talk about model output :-) where's all the Liverpool supporters tonight :-) On topic now, ECM 15 day showing that the op was on the bottom end of the pack, not to say this is wrong and hopefully an emerging trend as this is 2 times in a row. Apologies just noticed this was the midnight output not the 12Z...

Agreed on this, there does seem reasonable doubt at 7 days which could suggest a change to a more NW flow. I have been trying to post the 18z ensembles but for whatever reason I can't. By the 26 / 27th though there is a split which could indicate a slightly different outcome to currently modeled is coming. I tend to work on the lines of when high pressure is shown at higher latitudes (above the Azores for example) regardless of where this is shown it is possible that this could happen. The likely location for where it ends up though get's decided normally closer to the time. Based on what has been modeled in the last few days, strat forecasts and bias employed by most models I do agree with others that early Feb could see a different outcome to what is currently shown. I do see a mid Atlantic ridge forming within the next 10 days and hope (as it is not currently modeled) that this ridge will be sufficient in strength and latitude and not blown away by any remnant of vortex left over Greenland pushing the jet stream straight west towards us. By the weekend we should have a better glimpse of what could potentially be coming in the next 2 weeks, but based on what has been shown by the far more experienced posters like Tamara (not the only one mind you) I am certainly not writing off any potential for a colder last 1/3 of winter.

I would slightly differ with your view there and suggest that the main group remains cold, and there is an even colder group visible too. Remember this is for the Netherlands therefore locally in the UK it could be different depending on location. The op and the control you could say are at the top end of the potential solutions available.

UKMO for comparison to GFS at 96hrs.. UKMO GFS UKMO looking to replicate it's earlier run to my untrained eye..