Pie Man

This is my last post. I thought this forum engaged in genuine weather discussions, not pseudoscience. This forum isn't for me. Read the pseudoscience link on Wikipedia and take a moment to reflect. I'm off to the pub to engage in some intelligent conversation. Goodbye Pieman

Yes it can. Scientia non habet inimicum nisp ignorantem Pieman

You're all completely missing my point. I'm not interested in criticising anyone's forecast, and I'm not going to make any forecasts myself. I want to engage in a proper scientific debate, which has to include an airing and discussion of the forecasting methods being used, not just the forecast outcomes. 'Forecasters' who will not discuss their methods have little credibility to me - regardless of the outcome of the forecast. Anyone can roll a dice. Pieman PaulB - I wholeheartedly agree with you. Your post is a breath of fresh air compared with those of many other contributors. Pieman

Lorenzo, You've hit the nail on the head. Science is about understanding mechanisms and being able to reproduce the results. It is not sufficient just to say 'lets see how it turns out'. It is like me saying to everyone that next time I roll a dice it will turn up '6' (my forecast). If I do roll a '6' then I take the glory and give you all a load of tosh on 'my method' and 'how I did it'. I can say anything I like 'because it worked'.If I don't roll a '6' (this bit deleted by OON).......unless I was to roll a '1' which means I have a correlation coefficient of -1 (i.e. the dice is upside down).Pieman

Science (from the Latin scientia, meaning "knowledge") is an enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the world. What bugs me is a wild assertion about possible future events which is not based on testable explanations (or at least not in a transparent way). This offends the scientific principle. Pieman

And your point is what exactly? Clearly there's little in common between these three. Shows how long range forecasts are usually little better than guesswork. Look atthe pressure gradient between Iceland and Norway; you have it falling towards Norway, the ECMWF has it rising and the GFS shows little gradient. Pieman

Today's (22 Jan) Met Office long range forecast is just a description of the UK climate. Anyone could do this. UK Outlook for Sunday 6 Feb 2011 to Sunday 20 Feb 2011: This period looks to start mainly dry across southern parts of the UK, with cloudier, wetter and milder conditions in the north and west. Overnight frost and fog patches could continue for many southern parts of England and Wales. Meanwhile, spells of rain or drizzle, perhaps heavy at times with strong winds, are more likely further north across Scotland and Northern Ireland, with hill snow also possible here at times. Updated: 1145 on Sat 22 Jan 2011 Here's my forecast for April 20th 2011. Temperatures about normal for the time of year, but with periods of warm spring sunshine at times in the midlands, east and south-east England. Generally dry, but some light showers are possible, especially in the north and west. Mostly light winds. Pieman

Just found this. It could be the first signs of the forecast stormy winds. There's definitely some kind of vortex here - maybe this could be the beginning of the Great North Sea Storm? Pieman

I'm finding this thread increasingly like an argument in the pub at closing time. Its getting boring. Time to move on. Pieman

MB, I am interested to see your 'forecast' but if you won't discuss your method, your workings, or your data sources then you have little credibility in my eyes. If you now refuse to post any more 'forecasts' unless we stop asking you about 'your method' then that further reinforces my doubt. I'm sorry, but I'm not willing to worship your ego until you can show me some science. Pieman. [PhD in Meteorology and lifetime weather observer]