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Everything posted by legritter

  1. Afternoon all ,some great posts on here today , and currently some hope past 10 days with postage stamps showing a couple of ways to cold mid month . Just got that feeling that all will flip in our favour all of a sudden ,at the moment things are quiet in our area of the northern hemisphere , but things kicking of over the pond soon ,that of course could be good for us or bad ,all very frustrating but Very early days .We seem to be fishing in an empty pond perhaps we are due a nice big juicy shoal ,my straw at present seems to be the likely possibility of high pressure setting up somewhere to our north as hinted at on some of the ENS ,perhaps its good that our high pressure will get pushed away ,hopefully for some other to take up residence in a more favourable position .So a spell of mild weather then a cooling off ,that takes us to about the 12th of december ,after that who knows ,Met off update [current ]still going for anticyclonic conditions after mid month , so although we cant see their charts we can read into that statement ,thats all we can do , catch you all up later Gang
  2. Yes agree with day 8 chart,and IF high pressure does set up to our far north this could stear something vulgar in our direction if jet is favourable ,as I said earlier Barbara could easily emerge as our second named storm hopefully Barbara can head off to France , well not the best of ecm runs but could be better tomorrow ,would have thought that gfs runs now could get interesting any one for dart board lows cheers gang ,
  3. Afternoon all posters ,there seems to be some Buzz on this forum today ,good end run from ECM today lets hope it continues tonight .looking good on the ens also ,wonder what update Met office will do today but i dont expect much change to their wording as caution is the word ,[far to many media outlets ready to pounce] . So as we stand more frosts for some over coming days then milder air and atlantic fronts becoming more active .Looking at northern profile later next week and we have some quite cold air to our far north and far n west , gfs bringing in ever increasing deeper lows towards us ,and IF ECM chart 9/10 is on the ball these lows [Could ]turn further south , perhaps we will see some very cold 850 s moving south with time .Perhaps just a thought but perhaps Barbara [named storm ] will make it on Stage in about 8 days time , all interesting and of course not what some of us would like to see but now its december any snow chances will be greater than those back in november . So today is an upgrade for coldies and snowys , tonight i,m sure many of us will pull the sofas out and watch the show from there .for me looking at the northern profile over the pole [as presently forecast ]it looks like there are areas where high pressure could form in norther latitudes ,lets hope we arein the firing line ,Our friends across the pond are getting excited as their weather takes on a wintry look at last ,catch you all up later i,m off to dig the garden now its thawed a bit ,and of course before the next freeze !
  4. ok current modeling and charts data does show it turning warmer and unsettled ,but past i would say 8/10 days we could be on the cusp of something realy wintry or perhap[s just normal fayre ,winter as just started [yesterday ] there is no computer around which can predict the weather several weeks away , take a plane trip and look out a 36,000 say travelling from uk to western america ,thats what we are trying to predict !!!!!!!! Plus of course every thing above that altitude ,great forum gang catch you up later .
  5. Ecm is down the pub ,what's going on in the wood shed is there a surprise for us all ,cheers
  6. i,m off up the wood shed [we do have one ] We all know gang that come next week the models could very easily be showing a good wintry set up for mid month .Welcome to winter , we need to be patient ,looking at GFS just now and its hinting at a pressure rise from the pole in to scandy just a tease though but its seeing something ,i,m sure now we will get that mild spell but beyond that all to play for ,right woodshed here i come cheers to you all .
  7. Crikey i thought for a minute this was the ramping moaning thread ,but i clicked on the wrong site ,all could change this evening , thats what i like The chase for cold and snow synoptics ,great its winter tomorrow cheers
  8. I must admit i am watching nearly every run of the charts , but i,v just talked myself into taking some breaks before high level block syndrome kicks in .Pretty sure though that the pros have information and data which points to some kind of block setting up in about 12/15 days time ,so untill we get to early next week i am taking a big deep breath ,getting out on the garden for some digging [ when its thawed out ] tidy up the fish pond [when its thawed out ] replacing the grit in our bin [ some ones taken it ] all isn,t lost gang ,great forum probably by far the best ,with many more weeks of winter to come 13 in all ,cheers gang ,
  9. Good afternoon gang ,i,v been reading all the posts and looking at all the charts this morning as yesterday was busy on family commitments . well we certainly had it very cold this am water in bird bath frozen , certainly not had that much over last couple of years .so looking at current model out put it stays cold in my local ,with another hard frost tonight and possibly tomorrow then we get a cloudy hi , next week looking warmer with some weather fronts in the mix ,we will by early next week be looking at models for some sign of the return of high pressure of course at this range we wont know how this comes about ,or even guarantee it happening ,but i do feel that the professionals have enough Data with their computers and i feel confident that some sort of block Will arrive , but a block where ,all very important of course , if high pressure sets up over us or say just to our south the toys will come a tumbling out the prams ,[ i will state now ,i AM NOT a Troll ] just lightly joking of course . if thats what we finish up with , the long range computer models would have been right ,except of course a block there is no good for us snow starved weather fanatics . So looking at the extended outlook again ,and met office have stated [Colder than average ,]i would take it that the high Blocking high that is would be further north ,for all new Members at this range no one can put any details regarding snow potential ,between now and christmas we could very well have a good snowy spell ,then mild then snowy then very mild in time for christmas , and back to snow just after . So personally myself i am going to chill ,take a break from the computer from time to time then just check charts to see hopefully if this Block turns up ., just my little take on current situation ,not technical ,STellas all round cheers .
  10. Can confirm here on West mendip we have frost on the cars ,that was 9pm ,no wind at present ,owls are a screeching , cheers .
  11. great photo ,snow and bleakness and in november .
  12. Would be great IF it came off but look at the date [doomed i think ]perhaps its on to something ,we need to stay calm like the weather , i,v just got in after a good night out , crikey its a cold one out there , cheers gang .
  13. Yes agree waiting for good synoptics is very frustrating , [cold and Snow ] but i,m sure the professionals have seen something in their long range outlooks . They could be right that blocking will take place in a few weeks time , but of course where it sets up is so so important if you want it cold and possibly snowy in our neck of the woods . looking at todays ECM at around 7/10 days what catches my eye is that at this range those lows out west look like they might just do about anything ,especially IF pressure over the pole rises or to our north so lets wait and be patient, weather is fascinating but past the range of a week or so very very hard to forecast . Well good news ,13 weeks of meteorological winter to come soon ,[this thursday ] then we have 182 runs of ecm and uk met ,and of course double that of good old GFS ,enough to send you crackers ,so lets hope we can get a nice high pressure to our north somewhere ,low pressure to our south and this remaining for 8/10 weeks ,we can then just sit back ,pull up a chair do some curtain twitching radar watching ,a bit of food panic buying A STella etc .The upper air situation as apposed to most years is much different this year ,perhaps we will see big swings in the weather , and as others have said POtential ,Keep the faith gang ,relax chill , we dont realy know whats over that horizon ,cheers gang
  14. I have said this before ,i will take what the main models say out to 168 hrs ,as thats a week away ,tomorrows rum or should i say run will most likely be different again , i think perhaps the GFS as been on the Rum the last few days .Perhaps for now we are better off with nothing too cold or snowy in the charts ,just let things mature a bit and just wait to see what pops up more towards mid december , so another cliff hanger of a day , we are controled by computer weather models gang , great posts great forum , Stellas all round cheers .
  15. I feel the same ,think this is what bbc mentioned last night with guidance from met office , its going to be a tough bit of model watching , if the jet does dig south that opens up some good coldie synoptics or to our north different again ,or perhaps the middle ground . not a very technical post ,but we are in limbo along with the models i feel ,half expecting a sudden flood of charts all singing together , cheers gang ,catch you all up later .
  16. morning gang ,it certainly is frustrating times but hopefully we will eventually see some cold air flooding south , as for gfs this morning its been on the bottle ,ecm not yet out [come on ecm place that high in the right place for a beasterly ], uk met ,smell the coffee ,well i,v had me fag and a good moan and ramp now back to bed ,cheers gang
  17. Yes very interesting Model watching ,good run so fa r on GFS , but more runs needed to firm up and settle our Nerves .No joy of course on ecm run but i would expect going by what met office are hinting at for about ten days time i would hope to see Ecm throw out some stella runs from about saturday onwards .I,m going to firmly keep an eye on 168 hrs after all thats a week of weather ,From my experience if its out there [cold and snow ]it will probably be hinted at in main models then get snatched from us then emerge again with Met office very confident ,it should all come together ,and hopefully we can then start humming that song ,[let it snow let it snow let it snow ] so today a good run from GFS , lets see what those unseen bits of data that MET OFF use, is saying in outlook and eagerly awaited tonights runs , But gang stay calm ,we are still not in official winter yet cheers ,
  18. Sorry mods but posting this as i cant seem to get rid of it , MODEL FATIGUE ,CLICKED ON IT BY ACCIDENT CHEERS .
  19. From a coldies point of view i am happy at the moment with the charts out too 168 hours ,as thats a week away and a long time in forecasting .Final positioning of the high pressure and of course intensity and orientation still up for grabs ,so trying to fathom out what will be happening in ten days time seems pointless for us to worry about [but i can understand the frustrations of some ] Todays met update will give us some clues ,and i for one use this as the unseen Model plus i tend to look at charts out to 168 hrs as a guide ,well next stop for me GFS after a coffee ,enjoy your day gang .
  20. Morning ,we have the possibilities of a scandy high around 144/168 hrs or so , well that to me gang is good news . Gfs still big wild swings past this time frame , Yes we need to chil gang as Conner bailey degnan as just said above . Even our ECM as big variations past 192 hours ,a very long time in the weather game .So let the winter start to mature a bit , even my dog as the Grumps this morning i,m sure he understands the charts ,as he loves the Snow like me and us on netweather [or should i say most of us ] so lets wait for Met office update and pull that apart and of course todays later runs , I,V PULLED THE SETTEE away from the wall and got out the big straws from the loft ,i,m off to the woodshed up top garden [we do have one ]to have a discussion with myself on the prospects this winter , I still personally think the cold will come , cheers gang
  21. IF this run comes off or very similar there could be widespread snow even down my way south of the M4 even ,along way off but great to see , very tantalising though ,lets see tonights ecm next cheers
  22. Totally agree ,i do this myself sometimes , it helps i,m sure ,looking according to charts that high pressure will become established but of course positioning critical ,half expecting a STella run soon though ,and not the drink variety gang ,cheers
  23. Very calm here ,and gone milder but radar looks threatening . Would not be surprised if inland east of Dorset sees a 75mph gust and coastal areas close on 85 or more . Only good news with Angus currently timing ,hopefully worst gone before people are out tomorrow in mass ,take care ,.
  24. Just a short post from me ,i,ll take what models are showing out till about 6/7 days ahead tonight . We need i think to keep low pressure to our south and just hope high pressure becomes situated further north ,taking Met office further outlook one can hope that the data they have is saying low south high north ,so i am expecting further big firming up from the big three tomorrow , currently i have buckets of rain ,only 24hrs or so after some wet snow , Its great having this big yo yo now i feel as its got an air of the good old days ,not constant mild pathetic mush , and charts like we are seeing now in further outlook with just a Bit of luck Can deliver our cold wishes .I,m looking for trends and good signals ,we have it gang ,STellas all round , cheers ..
  25. Just read todays posts ,got some time to myself after looking after elderly relative 24/7 , still liking the look of the charts and All the signals coming from extended outlooks and of course the Models Was lucky to be about early this morning to see some of the WhITE STUFF ,very magical , but was gone [Just like that ] .Looking at tonights charts I think at past 6/7 days its going to be critical where we finish up at ,in relation to where any major high pressure sets up ,not very technical point from me but many outcomes for us in the UK ,Wecould finish up eventually at 8 to 10 days in the freezer , or on our way to it . The high to our west bathing us in Atlantic sourced air ,sat over us ,or even worse to our south ,and of course there are other alternatives , just cast your minds back 8/10 days to where we are now , I honestly think we are in a very good position for some interesting cold synoptics ,cheers gang .
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