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Everything posted by legritter

  1. I met Ian McCaskill ,a very nice person and very knowledgeable in Meteorology it came across in his weather presentations ,one of the Best .
  2. Morning all ,it looks to me that we are now entering a period of uncertainty past the 168 hr mark . looking at this mornings ECM in its later stages it does look like some sort of Zonal could win out next week .I say uncertainty but i am quite aware theres always that past 168 hrs . And at this range high pressure could become Anchored to our east with any Zonal being derailed way to our north . If i may just mention the christ mas period and still way to early at 13 days away , but i do have a gut feeling that our rather mundane synoptic situation will be replaced in about 10 days time ,but with what i have NO clue ,the weather does seem to be a very quick /Quick change Artist , so perhaps something is brewing , Thanks to Fergieweather for putting some meat on the bones , wish i could add some myself ,cheers gang ,
  3. Afternoon all ,after studying all current charts and Data I am inclined to think that out around later next week we could very well have some very threatening lows coming our way ,I am not suggesting A Battleground situation [ the type we dream of ] but perhaps lows taking a more southerly track , of course at this range any high in our local will be critical to what weather we get . I think we will start to see on the models very soon more of a hint of where we are heading ,regards positioning of high pressure and how very deep cold air exiting n,east Canada could influence the UK . Worth pointing out for new members that it does not take many days under high pressure in mid or late December for cold air to develope , so on the 9th december i will say ,stay calm ,its mild now ,but the mid to longer outlook can change very quickly , a couple of stella runs ,get all models singing together ,Squirrels nicely tucked up in bed ,frosty happy with his crayons and a happy crowd on this forum cheers all ,
  4. Dry frosty high would be good ,then let it migrate north ,not asking much ,we need some slices of bread not crumbs ,cheers .
  5. Well if the complex workings of our planet are not going to support a proper northern block for our island this winter ,I would prefer v cold zonal run instead .at least we will have some snow shots ,but very very early days ,past about 168 hrs is very uncertain at the moment ,even the pros are unsure ,but the hunt is still truly on gang .
  6. good morning gang ,still we have most good synoptics way out in the longer range .Do we keep high pressure close by or is the Atlantic going to come crashing through ,my only hope at the moment is for the high to migrate a little further north and the atlantic to come whistling in on a southerly tracking Jet later next week .realy wish i could see something wintry but all seems clouded in ifs and buts , lets hope tonights charts can get an angle on what we all are looking for ,And remember its only december the 7th ,
  7. Yes 192 hrs looking good ,and at 8 days away of course it may not come off but there again it could ,wish I could be more positive ,it's going to be interesting watching this blocking take hold ,if we could get a clean high I think that would generate some interest , nothing past 10 days set in stone That's the way I like it ,are we all a little meryer tonight ,hope so cheers gang .
  8. Any body for an albatross ,northern profile looking interesting ,this is my first attempt at chart posting well here goes ,enjoying tonights chatter .cheers
  9. Well certainly a very active forum ,I, v popped into some others across the pond but ours seems full of level headed posters scratching around looking for that brutal cold snowy spell . Across the pond they are beeting each other up over how much snow is going to fall , they ought to feel ashamed . any how early days for us ,think euro slug will gradually get eroded away ,straw now for me is possible Scandi high or something to our north , pole profile looks about right soon ,but it needs to come to daddy (uk) cheers
  10. sounds like it but that is the perils of long range forecasting ,so a period of mild coming up ,then possibly the atlantic firing up but still whether we get deep lows next week [week monday 12th ]all depends on positioning of any euro hi . Recent met off update to me points to euro high rather than high pressure to our north ,but really looking past two weeks is a mine field ,lets hope some of these Enns postage stamps etc are going to play in our favour ,So lets get the atlantic fired up and move on a bit who knows whats around the corner [over the horizon ] it could all suddenly fall in our favour , lets chill out ,STellas all round sausage bap for me , cheers gang .
  11. Afternoon all ,some great posts on here today , and currently some hope past 10 days with postage stamps showing a couple of ways to cold mid month . Just got that feeling that all will flip in our favour all of a sudden ,at the moment things are quiet in our area of the northern hemisphere , but things kicking of over the pond soon ,that of course could be good for us or bad ,all very frustrating but Very early days .We seem to be fishing in an empty pond perhaps we are due a nice big juicy shoal ,my straw at present seems to be the likely possibility of high pressure setting up somewhere to our north as hinted at on some of the ENS ,perhaps its good that our high pressure will get pushed away ,hopefully for some other to take up residence in a more favourable position .So a spell of mild weather then a cooling off ,that takes us to about the 12th of december ,after that who knows ,Met off update [current ]still going for anticyclonic conditions after mid month , so although we cant see their charts we can read into that statement ,thats all we can do , catch you all up later Gang
  12. Yes agree with day 8 chart,and IF high pressure does set up to our far north this could stear something vulgar in our direction if jet is favourable ,as I said earlier Barbara could easily emerge as our second named storm hopefully Barbara can head off to France , well not the best of ecm runs but could be better tomorrow ,would have thought that gfs runs now could get interesting any one for dart board lows cheers gang ,
  13. Afternoon all posters ,there seems to be some Buzz on this forum today ,good end run from ECM today lets hope it continues tonight .looking good on the ens also ,wonder what update Met office will do today but i dont expect much change to their wording as caution is the word ,[far to many media outlets ready to pounce] . So as we stand more frosts for some over coming days then milder air and atlantic fronts becoming more active .Looking at northern profile later next week and we have some quite cold air to our far north and far n west , gfs bringing in ever increasing deeper lows towards us ,and IF ECM chart 9/10 is on the ball these lows [Could ]turn further south , perhaps we will see some very cold 850 s moving south with time .Perhaps just a thought but perhaps Barbara [named storm ] will make it on Stage in about 8 days time , all interesting and of course not what some of us would like to see but now its december any snow chances will be greater than those back in november . So today is an upgrade for coldies and snowys , tonight i,m sure many of us will pull the sofas out and watch the show from there .for me looking at the northern profile over the pole [as presently forecast ]it looks like there are areas where high pressure could form in norther latitudes ,lets hope we arein the firing line ,Our friends across the pond are getting excited as their weather takes on a wintry look at last ,catch you all up later i,m off to dig the garden now its thawed a bit ,and of course before the next freeze !
  14. ok current modeling and charts data does show it turning warmer and unsettled ,but past i would say 8/10 days we could be on the cusp of something realy wintry or perhap[s just normal fayre ,winter as just started [yesterday ] there is no computer around which can predict the weather several weeks away , take a plane trip and look out a 36,000 say travelling from uk to western america ,thats what we are trying to predict !!!!!!!! Plus of course every thing above that altitude ,great forum gang catch you up later .
  15. Ecm is down the pub ,what's going on in the wood shed is there a surprise for us all ,cheers
  16. i,m off up the wood shed [we do have one ] We all know gang that come next week the models could very easily be showing a good wintry set up for mid month .Welcome to winter , we need to be patient ,looking at GFS just now and its hinting at a pressure rise from the pole in to scandy just a tease though but its seeing something ,i,m sure now we will get that mild spell but beyond that all to play for ,right woodshed here i come cheers to you all .
  17. Crikey i thought for a minute this was the ramping moaning thread ,but i clicked on the wrong site ,all could change this evening , thats what i like The chase for cold and snow synoptics ,great its winter tomorrow cheers
  18. I must admit i am watching nearly every run of the charts , but i,v just talked myself into taking some breaks before high level block syndrome kicks in .Pretty sure though that the pros have information and data which points to some kind of block setting up in about 12/15 days time ,so untill we get to early next week i am taking a big deep breath ,getting out on the garden for some digging [ when its thawed out ] tidy up the fish pond [when its thawed out ] replacing the grit in our bin [ some ones taken it ] all isn,t lost gang ,great forum probably by far the best ,with many more weeks of winter to come 13 in all ,cheers gang ,
  19. Good afternoon gang ,i,v been reading all the posts and looking at all the charts this morning as yesterday was busy on family commitments . well we certainly had it very cold this am water in bird bath frozen , certainly not had that much over last couple of years .so looking at current model out put it stays cold in my local ,with another hard frost tonight and possibly tomorrow then we get a cloudy hi , next week looking warmer with some weather fronts in the mix ,we will by early next week be looking at models for some sign of the return of high pressure of course at this range we wont know how this comes about ,or even guarantee it happening ,but i do feel that the professionals have enough Data with their computers and i feel confident that some sort of block Will arrive , but a block where ,all very important of course , if high pressure sets up over us or say just to our south the toys will come a tumbling out the prams ,[ i will state now ,i AM NOT a Troll ] just lightly joking of course . if thats what we finish up with , the long range computer models would have been right ,except of course a block there is no good for us snow starved weather fanatics . So looking at the extended outlook again ,and met office have stated [Colder than average ,]i would take it that the high Blocking high that is would be further north ,for all new Members at this range no one can put any details regarding snow potential ,between now and christmas we could very well have a good snowy spell ,then mild then snowy then very mild in time for christmas , and back to snow just after . So personally myself i am going to chill ,take a break from the computer from time to time then just check charts to see hopefully if this Block turns up ., just my little take on current situation ,not technical ,STellas all round cheers .
  20. Can confirm here on West mendip we have frost on the cars ,that was 9pm ,no wind at present ,owls are a screeching , cheers .
  21. great photo ,snow and bleakness and in november .
  22. Would be great IF it came off but look at the date [doomed i think ]perhaps its on to something ,we need to stay calm like the weather , i,v just got in after a good night out , crikey its a cold one out there , cheers gang .
  23. Yes agree waiting for good synoptics is very frustrating , [cold and Snow ] but i,m sure the professionals have seen something in their long range outlooks . They could be right that blocking will take place in a few weeks time , but of course where it sets up is so so important if you want it cold and possibly snowy in our neck of the woods . looking at todays ECM at around 7/10 days what catches my eye is that at this range those lows out west look like they might just do about anything ,especially IF pressure over the pole rises or to our north so lets wait and be patient, weather is fascinating but past the range of a week or so very very hard to forecast . Well good news ,13 weeks of meteorological winter to come soon ,[this thursday ] then we have 182 runs of ecm and uk met ,and of course double that of good old GFS ,enough to send you crackers ,so lets hope we can get a nice high pressure to our north somewhere ,low pressure to our south and this remaining for 8/10 weeks ,we can then just sit back ,pull up a chair do some curtain twitching radar watching ,a bit of food panic buying A STella etc .The upper air situation as apposed to most years is much different this year ,perhaps we will see big swings in the weather , and as others have said POtential ,Keep the faith gang ,relax chill , we dont realy know whats over that horizon ,cheers gang
  24. I have said this before ,i will take what the main models say out to 168 hrs ,as thats a week away ,tomorrows rum or should i say run will most likely be different again , i think perhaps the GFS as been on the Rum the last few days .Perhaps for now we are better off with nothing too cold or snowy in the charts ,just let things mature a bit and just wait to see what pops up more towards mid december , so another cliff hanger of a day , we are controled by computer weather models gang , great posts great forum , Stellas all round cheers .
  25. I feel the same ,think this is what bbc mentioned last night with guidance from met office , its going to be a tough bit of model watching , if the jet does dig south that opens up some good coldie synoptics or to our north different again ,or perhaps the middle ground . not a very technical post ,but we are in limbo along with the models i feel ,half expecting a sudden flood of charts all singing together , cheers gang ,catch you all up later .
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