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legritter

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    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A MERRY CHRISTMAS AGAIN TO ALL MY WEATHER MATES , :smiliz64: STAY HAPPY and remember everyday we will see new data ,the last couple of days as an example ,[how far a developing low pressure can be modeled ] and thats at fairly short range compared to what us model watchers are striving to predict .thats why uk met give a 15/30 day update everyday ,current data points to high pressure somewhere to our east come the next week ,with met office on their models forecasting the atlantic coming back in ,but looking 30 days ahead i feel even for super computers so many things could change at this range .for those seeing snow during friday sat ,enjoy it ,and perhaps our low will pause for several hours to salute us modelers ,that will do me fine here in somerset ,well i,m going to have another STella all enjoy this  christmas ,and a big thank you to the team who keep our forum up and running  :drinks:

    • Like 15
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    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I know its early times with tonights model runs but to me an increasing risk of high pressure hanging around after this weekends low pressure slips away ,direction still not nailed on .charts at the moment, fills me with christmas spirit [the weather variety ]I know we are aware that each day brings a different outlook but at the moment each day looks like a different book not page .well ecm out soon ,full run and i expect to see more blocking close to our shores .dont forget patience is the key ,a good nights sleep and a different day on the models ,If i dont get time to post again ,Happy christmas to all my fellow posters and partners in crime ,[[what crime i hear you say ]the crime of wishing for thick thick snow with no end in sight , :yahoo:  :smiliz64:

    • Like 13

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes patience is certainly the key word to stop us coldies going bananas ,will it wont it ,but certainly looking like an action packed weekend next week 27/29th ,if one was to put faith in GFS ,Tonights ecm run eagerly awaited to see if that produces a deep area of low pressure as the gfs does .just had an eee mail from friends in toronto ,and their weather channel are using the term Weather BOMB  in a new term ,SANTA BOMB ,will our Media latch onto this ,still plenty of interesting charts to keep us interested over coming week or so ,we just need a lowering of pressure from our friend the azores and for pressure to keep on increasing around greenland ,at the end of the day basic high somewhere to our north lower pressure to our south ,simple realy but of course mother nature sometimes has other ideas .well cupboards are well stocked ,candles at the ready ,i,m ready for a good old Block , :bomb:  :cold:  :drinks:

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I don't buy this low pressure over Scotland. It just pops up out of absolutely nowhere! No way could it so quickly get so strong? Surely?

     

     

    output_UZBtg6.gif

    It could of course develope earlier and run much further south ,or get pushed further north especially if the azores high flares up ,at this range very interesting but very early days ,hope though its a white one for all with a good undercut ,cheers .

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    An awful lot of focus here on how pronounced any cold might be.... but arguably, one of the most eye-catching forecast issues amongst ensembles is one of possible explosive cyclogenesis (vast majority of EC-EPS members from 00z suite producing lows from Boxing Day onwards, some very deep indeed, and all considered likely to entrain sub-zero theta-w irrespective of track). So, for us it's a story of potentially bad weather across a fair scope of outcomes (gales/severe gales/heavy rain/snow) rather than a myopic focus solely on snow. Whilst I appreciate some people merely seek the latter to the exclusion of all else, there is a resultant risk of not seeing the woods for the trees in terms of the potential (still highly uncertain) evolutions and how these might provide a very interesting / volatile period meteorologically, irrespective of how cold it proves.

    Thanks for your time and much appreciated interesting information ,looks like the uk could be in for an interesting newsworthy time ,on as you say several interesting synoptic situations possibly panning out , looking at the charts are fine on paper but what a massive area they cover and of course on many different MB levels ,interesting days ahead ,thanks again . :smiliz39:

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Guys ,

     

    I posted this morning re the above ...

     

    It looks as though the first attempt at cold by the GFSP is far to quick for lasting cold. (Maybe give us some snow at XMAS though).

     

    The GFS is still a dog's dinner  and may need until monday or tuesday before it gets the trend correct ....

     

    The ECM looks to be about the right speed as Tamarra and OldMetMan have suggested as per when the atmosphere will be correctly loaded for a lasting cold/very cold spell. 

     

    My post earlier said it may well follow a 1962 style run-up with a midlevel high  block off North west Scotland gradually moving into Scandanavia  and joining up with its big brother from the East. Afterwards the whole lot regressed to Iceland and we were stuck in freezing conditions for months.

     

    The latest ECM now reminds me of 1956 (feb)  where the arrival of extreme cold was quick and very aggressive. A depression to the northwest suddenly decided it had had enough of fighting the block over northern europe and went on its holidaays straight over central England to the Mediterranean. The cold and gales for two days was intense with 5foot drifts everywhere. even on low ground.

     

    I remember the MO didn't pick it up til late on (12hours) and it was  a great shock to many people though admittedly it was made worse because Europe had been very cold that year.

     

    So don't be in tooo much of a rush bloggers . Slow and steady  is the way....

     

    So as my previous post suggested we may have much to gain from the slower evolution. Its almost the longer it takes the worse (better?)  and more intense it will be.

     

    MIA

    This post certainly sums up what i,v been thinking of posting tonight .i would also like to say that many of us knock the models at around about 168 hrs forward but they do sometimes latch onto something at that range ,then drop it in their number crunching only to bring it back ,tonights ECM 240 hrs could in fact turn up in about 6/7 days time .as far as GFS runs [both ]it would not surprise me that we will soon start seeing some very wild swings ,as we have seen today .So at this point tonight i think the real uncertainty starts about next fri/saturday ,one post that caught my eye tonight mentioned how good all models latched on to the late nov /dec synoptics in 2010 ,well it was awaiting ,how things are great in hindsight .still tonight at this point i feel very excited of the following interesting times ahead ,and hoping today as just been a blip on the way to a possible pattern change ,Stellas all round gang . :smiliz64:  :drinks:

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A very painfull Analysis from Gibby this morning ,If its cold and snow you crave for .A big thank you Gibby for your loyalty and giving us your time everyday ,the good thing with regards our daily Models is the fact that Gibby updates everyday ,which in a nut shell tells you that things can change so lets all remember that in our everchanging Meteorological pastime ,there will be more bad times as regards what we want but gains every now and again .todays later frames of ECM with a bit of adjustment could bring us a good n westerly feed with some seasonal fun for some .Dont write off talk several days ago of a pattern change with cooler temperatures as quite often things get changed only to come back a little later .The professionals must have seen some data to suggest this and being at a far range would have only mentioned this with a fair certainty .looking at current charts and all other data available to me this morning i think that in about 10/12 days we will see a very active trough over us or to our east and n/east with the azores high relaxed somewhat but relatively high pressure over western med .IM still finding it a problem posting charts as computer i think needs replacing [christmas fingers crossed]  :cold:  :drinks:

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I must admit my optimism has waned as the day has progressed. The over riding trend as the day has gone on is for that persistent high over Iberia to grow in strength. I remember many a winter when all the dream synoptics are in place only for everything to be scuppered by the beast from the south.

    thats the  problem with Meteorology ,like the jigsaw puzzle not complete till the last piece slips into place whether it be azores high ,iceland low ,southern euro slug or all the synoptics  coming together pattern wise in mid july ,frustrating yes but a good bet at ten days range we know any current charts will be differently positioned .hoping we can see high pressure take over the roost ok it might turn dry but could just glide into the perfect position for deep cold .todays charts are showing some possibilitys but i feel with current possible pattern change around the new year we will have to wait till atleast midweek before we start seeing some ideal charts .It takes time i,m willing to wait a while ,and yes im going to crack open a Carling , :cold:  :drinks:

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Erm, to be very clear: OPI hasn't been peer-reviewed. To say it's 'poor' is pre-empting rigorous independent assessment and unfairly dismissing work by it's authors. It may or may not be onto something, but for now we can't assess this in any informed fashion, so it's not factored into key seasonal prognostics.

    I will try and find out where i read a good article [opi ] and something to do with the polar vortex being possibly broken up and not staying for long in one place this winter season .very interesting times on the cards i think and each day throwing up new possibilitys ,but as usual its along hard slog getting good winter synoptics into the good old UK ,but its happened on thousands if not more occasions as history will tell you ,well thats my big straw for now . :cold:

    • Like 3

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    :help: Just sat behind settee ,awaiting tonights charts ,dog curled up with tail cocked up ,i watched a very big flock of Jackdaws probably about 500 birds heading to our local woods ,something is a foot ,pattern change possible ,councill came around yesterday and toped up grit bins . Well lets hope gang that we see some good charts over the coming days but i,m expecting some big differences with the model, with a real firming up come Monday .I would not be surprised if next FRI/SAT brings a bit more of the white stuff but beyond that all i think to play for .reading other forums in northern  Hemisphere and some interesting synoptic situations across the northern hemisphere we could just about to begin to see some good looking charts .looking at todays Met office 16/30 day update there must be signs for cold but pinning the tail on the donkey at this range must be a hard thing to do so dont expect to much detail at this range ,patience is needed and hopefully Jam tomorrow , :cold:  :cold:  :drinks:

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Evening all ,well certainly tonights ECM was a bit of a let down for me especially in its later 3 frames .ok we have high pressure modeled too the s east of us but it would be totally wrong to accept this at this range ,could be that high could be many hundreds of miles in another location .PLenty of talk about a pressure change later this month perhaps this is the first sign appearing on our charts .i would have thought that the models would soon start sniffing at something and we are only 12 days into winter so gang be patient and No writing off winter , :cold:  :cold: cheers  :drinks:

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes, albeit with the caveats of uncertainty previously expressed..

    Expect the broadly W to NW flow bias to dominate through next 10-15 days with good broad confidence. Towards end of this trend period, both some MOGREPS and EC members (n.b. bear in mind we always follow postage stamps closely, rather than just ENS mean, as latter tends to become skewed by leaning towards the climatological more 'energetic' influence eventually, i.e. prevailing westerly/zonal) hinting at height rises initially to S / W / E (varied emphasis thereof) of the UK, with some recent longer-range NCEP-GFS members also suggestive of same signal. This may, or may not, prove to be an initial phase of a zonal relaxation or subsequent complete reversal but mechanism for this is enigmatic, noting a continued GloSea signal (post-d15) for some northerly blocking solutions appearing amongst members into end December-early Jan.

    Thanks for this insight ,every little bit of info helps when studying the models .it will be interesting to see some future model runs hinting at perhaps some definate pressure change but i fully expect it will take some time ,or the possibility of a sudden change of the models .It can be frustrating whilst looking for cold but i have conditioned myself now to looking at several runs together  and repeating to myself, Tomorrow a new day and more new Updated data and that Models are not mystic Megs ,mother nature is full of surprises .Meteorology as moved on in the last 30 years ,back then a new 120hr updated fax chart would arrive from the weather centre most days by Post ,now the touch of a key board, presto ,but the uncertainty certainly makes for interesting hunting in our search for cold [snowy ]Synoptics ,tonights ECM eagerly awaited , :cold: wrapping up for now cheers  :drinks:

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Some realy good posts today and great to be a part of a brilliant weather forum .charts still showing plenty of interest and we dont seem to be stuck in a rut ,great start to our winter and some hints of plenty of variation in the longer outlook models ,thats what im looking for variation ,just getting it right for cold sometimes comes when we have some uncertainty ,and its only early days  :cold: cheers gang 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I still think all is to play for out past 7 days ,and certainly seeing the possibility of high pressure being modelled closer to our shores ,Does not put the fear of [big mushy ]up me .this high pressure could eventually be modelled further north .I do accept tonights ECM is not showing any christmas cheer in its later stages but let the winter Mature ,we sometimes or quite frequently get a knock in the gool ...but remember tomorrow is another new day in our hunt for cold .we still have some incoming wintry weather ,and for most more than last year already , :cold:  :rofl:

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well with no major cold spell visible on current modelling many of us are going to have to see what we can squeeze out of air originating from northern latitudes with the hope that good 850 mb temp and some weather systems can produce some wintryness even down to low ground .IT does look that generally the next 10 days will pan out as current Data suggests .but with the mention of christmas now coming into discussion on this forum i would say with over two weeks till 25th many things could change big time in any possible Synoptic outcome .I always try and post a more light hearted view on the charts aimed mostly at beginners and new posters ,leaving more technical views to other experienced members who are also able to post charts etc .If we take current synoptic situation over coming 5 days and go back TEN days from today what was the 10/15 day forecast certainly one of westerly systems but alas no mention realy of what we are about to experience wind wise and for some wintry wise ,so with christmas 16 days away it would take a very brave punter to say what synoptic situation we could be looking at by then .I will finish by saying plenty of action weather and all to play for Roll on tonights charts  :bomb: Enjoy our weather bomb ,which was once referred to as a deep area of low pressure with a very quick drop of pressure ,im not being sarcastic just keeping up with the times cheeers gang  :cold:  :drinks:

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Dont gang get too hung up over the possibility of high pressure setting up over central or southern europe ,this If it starts to show up more over the coming days on our available models will only be an attemp by the computers to try and locate the most likely area it will have its centre ,and at this range expect large swings ,it could of course go our way and finish up in a favourable position further north .[ fingers and toes crossed ].we are having just what we wanted some good looking charts ,snow for some ,and i,m expecting some surprises to turn up every time our friend the Fax charts are updated .Some interesting weather more akin to WINTER ,beats mild mush anyday ,tonights ECM eagerly awaited catch you up later , :cold:  :yahoo:

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Charts currently showing interesting weather for the next 7/8 days with some lucky posters seeing some snow ,also towards the end of the working week depending on synoptics a few more of us could join in the fun .I also take on board signs of temperatures recovering past 8 days as high pressure to our s west regains any lost ground BUT beyond this say 12 days away is realy pushing medium range modelling to the limit ,you have only got to remember last winter and how that Monster broke out of its cage .Realy enjoying our forum with its daily changes ,ebbing and flowing ,Thats Meteorology for you ,Hands up those who would like a supercomputer for christmas that is accurate out to 4 weeks ,No thanks lets continue to enjoy the uncertainty , :cold:  :drinks:

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by legritter

    Todays Models and charts showing alternating milder spells with colder interludes right the way out till 15th of december and thats where i would draw the line to what i would expect .even in this ten day period exact synoptic situations Will change .My eye is drawn to the possibility of an active deep trough possibly over us or to our east come 12 days time .Gfs is already taking low pressure more and more to our east in later output ,and there is a big difference from run to run more so than we have seen to late .Its only early days gang ,christmas is still 20 days away new year nearly a month away ,Thats one hell of a time in Meteorology ,The winter i,m sure is still Maturing and i,m convinced at some point we will see the models reflect this .Brilliant Forum and remember ,how many times we go to bed with a completely different outlook the following morning .I will just mention Stratospheric influences ,yes a brilliant tool for us interested in the models as im sure what goes on high up there, does indeed have a big impact on the main drivers of our weather in the Troposphere but its a relatively new science and to my knowledge for the size of the stratosphere im sure more Data collecting is needed .And a message to all ,all to play for gang Chill out take A STella and enjoy our top of the rating Net weather forum  :cold: :yahoo:ps Gfs as left the post ,lets see how things change now some action weather is modeled in .

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A lot of good constructive discussions today ,And in my opinion a good start to winter on the Model output forum .most charts now showing a colder out;look but in fits and starts .alot of IFS out past 7 days ,for me does the azores high just hang around or collapse ,and are we going to see a pressure rise n /east of newfoundland greenland area i,m hoping for some possible answers from ECM tonight .some very interesting data for us to have a gander over ,and nice to see it early in the winter ,well inm looking forward to tonights runs in about an hour ,catch you all up later , :cold:

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Its certainly good to see some very interesting charts and Data today ,ok no deep freezer being forecasted but next week looking very disturbed possibly stormy for a good few of us .Also in the far outlook high pressure possibly occuring over north east canada west greenland area ,im not suggesting a block but if we can get the main trough over scandy and a lessening of any hights to our south and south west we could be looking at a synoptic situation that us Coldies would relish . Model watching as just gone up a gear today ,Brilliant forum ,And a big thanks to the knowlegable for their contributions ,bring it on we have Some meat on the bones , :cold:  :yahoo:

    • Like 3

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by legritter

    If we get some good deep cold we could get some good lake effect snow with SST above normal ,I know this Can be hit and miss but atleast some of the magical stuff .I fancy a good old Ramp ,bring it on ,i,v got a new Halogen 500 watt outside lamp fitted for snow flake watching ,And my other half is going to let me peep out the corner of the curtains so long as i dont get my grubby hands messing them up .Nice to see the polar Vortex on the move and sort of soothing that theres plenty of winter to come , :cold:  :cold: well gang  :gathering:  :drinks: i,ll have a half .sorry forgot to say GFS SHUNTING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE ON CURRENT RUN .

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    good morning posters ,although no real signs of deep cold on todays charts and Data there is plenty of interest out past the 6 day range .every possibility of some newsworthy weather headlines Next week and quite a chance for some of us to see[ Some]Snow and unwelcome wind storms .but as usual at the seven day range many things yet to be sorted on any track and timing of such events .past this it could be a case of repeat and rinse looking at extended Data ,but remember how things changed last year towards mid month ,no guarantee it will this time around, but we are i feel going to have some very interesting Model discussion with some Joy for some depending on your preference of weather type .so to sum it up it looks like our kneck of the woods is going from quiet uneventfull weather pattern to a Quick change artist with a sting  in its Tail ,Mr vortex Has been given the Sack by north american and Canadian upper air space ,Final destination [watch this space ]. Not a very technical post but we all have our way of expression , :yahoo:  :drinks:

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