legritter

Some good discussions tonight on our first class forum .All brought about by our computer models . i,v certainly learnt over the last few years watching the models that a complete turnaround can occur overnight or even during the day .personally i take the next 6 days charts and Data, Digest it accept it and then just wait ,so looking at a week away things will change in locations of high pressure areas, of low pressure whether or not a ssw will show its head and many other Meteorological big players .it could very well be that Tomorrow when we all wake up click on the computer the charts past five days would have changed [for good or bad ] depending on your preferences and your location in the uk .so after digesting all of todays data i can only come to the same conclusion as the pros at exeter who have far more data and charts at their disposal .but only a small miss calculation can bring us quite a big difference in the weather .our recent low must be a perfect example ,A gfs low centre moving to our n west then deepening and heading south east down north sea ,in the end it brought to some [lucky ones ]snow and now deep cold although short lived beets last years zilsh .I have not mentioned other models but just reminding some that things are not set in stone for the rest of winter ,So come on non believers plenty of winter left ,enjoy Stellas all round ,cheers

good evening posters ,happy ones and not so happy ones .taking all models and data currently, after our current cold spell yes we are probably heading for a spell of westerly sourced weather .but using as an example Both GFS models once we get to 8 days we start to see big differences from previouse runs ,and what catches my eyes is the possibility of some good Polar maritime shots .Any poster writing off winter at this stage in my opinion comes across as possible wind up material but entirely entitled to say that ,ok we do not have jam today but Big changes can happen ,we still have plenty of time for good cold snowy synoptics ,hope you all like my new hairstyle ,my old Avatar got lost somewhere installing my new computer and i,v just worked out how to install it ,roll on tonights charts ,cheers all

my star christmas post ,and a thank you to all those brave soldiers ,remember all models at long range are subject to sudden change ,any wind up merchants around find another hobby ,merry christmas to all ,hope you all have a fantastic day ,enjoy the weather synoptics of the next 3/4 days could be a few surprises ,cheers :smiliz64:

A MERRY CHRISTMAS AGAIN TO ALL MY WEATHER MATES , :smiliz64: STAY HAPPY and remember everyday we will see new data ,the last couple of days as an example ,[how far a developing low pressure can be modeled ] and thats at fairly short range compared to what us model watchers are striving to predict .thats why uk met give a 15/30 day update everyday ,current data points to high pressure somewhere to our east come the next week ,with met office on their models forecasting the atlantic coming back in ,but looking 30 days ahead i feel even for super computers so many things could change at this range .for those seeing snow during friday sat ,enjoy it ,and perhaps our low will pause for several hours to salute us modelers ,that will do me fine here in somerset ,well i,m going to have another STella all enjoy this christmas ,and a big thank you to the team who keep our forum up and running

GFS P frame 141hrs a real sausage dangling over the uk from southern russia ,and dont anyone dare get out the crayons .a good run hope tomorrow carries on with all models supporting a good HL block ,im waiting for tonights 120hr fax chart could be interesting ,cheers gang .

I know its early times with tonights model runs but to me an increasing risk of high pressure hanging around after this weekends low pressure slips away ,direction still not nailed on .charts at the moment, fills me with christmas spirit [the weather variety ]I know we are aware that each day brings a different outlook but at the moment each day looks like a different book not page .well ecm out soon ,full run and i expect to see more blocking close to our shores .dont forget patience is the key ,a good nights sleep and a different day on the models ,If i dont get time to post again ,Happy christmas to all my fellow posters and partners in crime ,[[what crime i hear you say ]the crime of wishing for thick thick snow with no end in sight , :smiliz64:

Yes patience is certainly the key word to stop us coldies going bananas ,will it wont it ,but certainly looking like an action packed weekend next week 27/29th ,if one was to put faith in GFS ,Tonights ecm run eagerly awaited to see if that produces a deep area of low pressure as the gfs does .just had an eee mail from friends in toronto ,and their weather channel are using the term Weather BOMB in a new term ,SANTA BOMB ,will our Media latch onto this ,still plenty of interesting charts to keep us interested over coming week or so ,we just need a lowering of pressure from our friend the azores and for pressure to keep on increasing around greenland ,at the end of the day basic high somewhere to our north lower pressure to our south ,simple realy but of course mother nature sometimes has other ideas .well cupboards are well stocked ,candles at the ready ,i,m ready for a good old Block ,

It could of course develope earlier and run much further south ,or get pushed further north especially if the azores high flares up ,at this range very interesting but very early days ,hope though its a white one for all with a good undercut ,cheers .

Thanks for your time and much appreciated interesting information ,looks like the uk could be in for an interesting newsworthy time ,on as you say several interesting synoptic situations possibly panning out , looking at the charts are fine on paper but what a massive area they cover and of course on many different MB levels ,interesting days ahead ,thanks again . :smiliz39:

MORNING GANG ,gfs normal [old ] is not updating on my computer its still showing 00hrs ,or am i missing something ,dont want to miss a good run ,cheers .

This post certainly sums up what i,v been thinking of posting tonight .i would also like to say that many of us knock the models at around about 168 hrs forward but they do sometimes latch onto something at that range ,then drop it in their number crunching only to bring it back ,tonights ECM 240 hrs could in fact turn up in about 6/7 days time .as far as GFS runs [both ]it would not surprise me that we will soon start seeing some very wild swings ,as we have seen today .So at this point tonight i think the real uncertainty starts about next fri/saturday ,one post that caught my eye tonight mentioned how good all models latched on to the late nov /dec synoptics in 2010 ,well it was awaiting ,how things are great in hindsight .still tonight at this point i feel very excited of the following interesting times ahead ,and hoping today as just been a blip on the way to a possible pattern change ,Stellas all round gang . :smiliz64:

A very painfull Analysis from Gibby this morning ,If its cold and snow you crave for .A big thank you Gibby for your loyalty and giving us your time everyday ,the good thing with regards our daily Models is the fact that Gibby updates everyday ,which in a nut shell tells you that things can change so lets all remember that in our everchanging Meteorological pastime ,there will be more bad times as regards what we want but gains every now and again .todays later frames of ECM with a bit of adjustment could bring us a good n westerly feed with some seasonal fun for some .Dont write off talk several days ago of a pattern change with cooler temperatures as quite often things get changed only to come back a little later .The professionals must have seen some data to suggest this and being at a far range would have only mentioned this with a fair certainty .looking at current charts and all other data available to me this morning i think that in about 10/12 days we will see a very active trough over us or to our east and n/east with the azores high relaxed somewhat but relatively high pressure over western med .IM still finding it a problem posting charts as computer i think needs replacing [christmas fingers crossed]

thats the problem with Meteorology ,like the jigsaw puzzle not complete till the last piece slips into place whether it be azores high ,iceland low ,southern euro slug or all the synoptics coming together pattern wise in mid july ,frustrating yes but a good bet at ten days range we know any current charts will be differently positioned .hoping we can see high pressure take over the roost ok it might turn dry but could just glide into the perfect position for deep cold .todays charts are showing some possibilitys but i feel with current possible pattern change around the new year we will have to wait till atleast midweek before we start seeing some ideal charts .It takes time i,m willing to wait a while ,and yes im going to crack open a Carling ,

I will try and find out where i read a good article [opi ] and something to do with the polar vortex being possibly broken up and not staying for long in one place this winter season .very interesting times on the cards i think and each day throwing up new possibilitys ,but as usual its along hard slog getting good winter synoptics into the good old UK ,but its happened on thousands if not more occasions as history will tell you ,well thats my big straw for now .

Just sat behind settee ,awaiting tonights charts ,dog curled up with tail cocked up ,i watched a very big flock of Jackdaws probably about 500 birds heading to our local woods ,something is a foot ,pattern change possible ,councill came around yesterday and toped up grit bins . Well lets hope gang that we see some good charts over the coming days but i,m expecting some big differences with the model, with a real firming up come Monday .I would not be surprised if next FRI/SAT brings a bit more of the white stuff but beyond that all i think to play for .reading other forums in northern Hemisphere and some interesting synoptic situations across the northern hemisphere we could just about to begin to see some good looking charts .looking at todays Met office 16/30 day update there must be signs for cold but pinning the tail on the donkey at this range must be a hard thing to do so dont expect to much detail at this range ,patience is needed and hopefully Jam tomorrow ,

Evening all ,well certainly tonights ECM was a bit of a let down for me especially in its later 3 frames .ok we have high pressure modeled too the s east of us but it would be totally wrong to accept this at this range ,could be that high could be many hundreds of miles in another location .PLenty of talk about a pressure change later this month perhaps this is the first sign appearing on our charts .i would have thought that the models would soon start sniffing at something and we are only 12 days into winter so gang be patient and No writing off winter , cheers

Very bright flash here on west mendip 20 mins ago ,heard no thunder as telly was on ,but some gusty wind ,radar nicely showing incoming rain from our west ,cheers .

Thanks for this insight ,every little bit of info helps when studying the models .it will be interesting to see some future model runs hinting at perhaps some definate pressure change but i fully expect it will take some time ,or the possibility of a sudden change of the models .It can be frustrating whilst looking for cold but i have conditioned myself now to looking at several runs together and repeating to myself, Tomorrow a new day and more new Updated data and that Models are not mystic Megs ,mother nature is full of surprises .Meteorology as moved on in the last 30 years ,back then a new 120hr updated fax chart would arrive from the weather centre most days by Post ,now the touch of a key board, presto ,but the uncertainty certainly makes for interesting hunting in our search for cold [snowy ]Synoptics ,tonights ECM eagerly awaited , wrapping up for now cheers

Some realy good posts today and great to be a part of a brilliant weather forum .charts still showing plenty of interest and we dont seem to be stuck in a rut ,great start to our winter and some hints of plenty of variation in the longer outlook models ,thats what im looking for variation ,just getting it right for cold sometimes comes when we have some uncertainty ,and its only early days cheers gang

I still think all is to play for out past 7 days ,and certainly seeing the possibility of high pressure being modelled closer to our shores ,Does not put the fear of [big mushy ]up me .this high pressure could eventually be modelled further north .I do accept tonights ECM is not showing any christmas cheer in its later stages but let the winter Mature ,we sometimes or quite frequently get a knock in the gool ...but remember tomorrow is another new day in our hunt for cold .we still have some incoming wintry weather ,and for most more than last year already ,

Well with no major cold spell visible on current modelling many of us are going to have to see what we can squeeze out of air originating from northern latitudes with the hope that good 850 mb temp and some weather systems can produce some wintryness even down to low ground .IT does look that generally the next 10 days will pan out as current Data suggests .but with the mention of christmas now coming into discussion on this forum i would say with over two weeks till 25th many things could change big time in any possible Synoptic outcome .I always try and post a more light hearted view on the charts aimed mostly at beginners and new posters ,leaving more technical views to other experienced members who are also able to post charts etc .If we take current synoptic situation over coming 5 days and go back TEN days from today what was the 10/15 day forecast certainly one of westerly systems but alas no mention realy of what we are about to experience wind wise and for some wintry wise ,so with christmas 16 days away it would take a very brave punter to say what synoptic situation we could be looking at by then .I will finish by saying plenty of action weather and all to play for Roll on tonights charts Enjoy our weather bomb ,which was once referred to as a deep area of low pressure with a very quick drop of pressure ,im not being sarcastic just keeping up with the times cheeers gang

Dont gang get too hung up over the possibility of high pressure setting up over central or southern europe ,this If it starts to show up more over the coming days on our available models will only be an attemp by the computers to try and locate the most likely area it will have its centre ,and at this range expect large swings ,it could of course go our way and finish up in a favourable position further north .[ fingers and toes crossed ].we are having just what we wanted some good looking charts ,snow for some ,and i,m expecting some surprises to turn up every time our friend the Fax charts are updated .Some interesting weather more akin to WINTER ,beats mild mush anyday ,tonights ECM eagerly awaited catch you up later ,

Charts currently showing interesting weather for the next 7/8 days with some lucky posters seeing some snow ,also towards the end of the working week depending on synoptics a few more of us could join in the fun .I also take on board signs of temperatures recovering past 8 days as high pressure to our s west regains any lost ground BUT beyond this say 12 days away is realy pushing medium range modelling to the limit ,you have only got to remember last winter and how that Monster broke out of its cage .Realy enjoying our forum with its daily changes ,ebbing and flowing ,Thats Meteorology for you ,Hands up those who would like a supercomputer for christmas that is accurate out to 4 weeks ,No thanks lets continue to enjoy the uncertainty ,

Todays Models and charts showing alternating milder spells with colder interludes right the way out till 15th of december and thats where i would draw the line to what i would expect .even in this ten day period exact synoptic situations Will change .My eye is drawn to the possibility of an active deep trough possibly over us or to our east come 12 days time .Gfs is already taking low pressure more and more to our east in later output ,and there is a big difference from run to run more so than we have seen to late .Its only early days gang ,christmas is still 20 days away new year nearly a month away ,Thats one hell of a time in Meteorology ,The winter i,m sure is still Maturing and i,m convinced at some point we will see the models reflect this .Brilliant Forum and remember ,how many times we go to bed with a completely different outlook the following morning .I will just mention Stratospheric influences ,yes a brilliant tool for us interested in the models as im sure what goes on high up there, does indeed have a big impact on the main drivers of our weather in the Troposphere but its a relatively new science and to my knowledge for the size of the stratosphere im sure more Data collecting is needed .And a message to all ,all to play for gang Chill out take A STella and enjoy our top of the rating Net weather forum :yahoo:ps Gfs as left the post ,lets see how things change now some action weather is modeled in .

A lot of good constructive discussions today ,And in my opinion a good start to winter on the Model output forum .most charts now showing a colder out;look but in fits and starts .alot of IFS out past 7 days ,for me does the azores high just hang around or collapse ,and are we going to see a pressure rise n /east of newfoundland greenland area i,m hoping for some possible answers from ECM tonight .some very interesting data for us to have a gander over ,and nice to see it early in the winter ,well inm looking forward to tonights runs in about an hour ,catch you all up later ,