[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Hello?

 

 

UKMO sticking with the cheeky channel low. Not on GFS output but let's hope ECM can back it up.

would be nice ,potential hopefully ,alot of weather to get through and this could be what some lucky posters are dreaming of . 

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

yes i must admit i,m going to enjoy this week a real action packed and a quick change artist type situation from day to day ,and i,m pretty sure some surprises turning up .the end of the week could go many ways .saw my first sleet shower last night and watched it in the outside halogen lamp whilst sipping on a cup of tea ,very cosy [i must be mad ] some speculation now of a pressure rise towards the end of january ,Met office have been hinting for a while ,but its where that high sets up If it arrives ,and with february 20days away plenty more of winter left ,so gang seeing this is not the model thread         cheers .  nearly forgot the weather bomb .

[Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January]

As the crow flys it did cause massive problems, close to Eastern England (Denmark) 100mph + winds were recorded from ST Jude as it continued to deepen rapidly.So on a global scale the M.O were right to issue their warnings as it was nearly deadly in its impacts for our shores.

yes you are very correct there ,timings, depth of low ,track ,whether its developing etc all very critical ,and of course we could have got the full force of it here .As i mentioned ,as the low passed over my area all seemed so weak and calm ,lovely twinkling stars ,but the beast had been born ,with europe as its target .interesting days ahead ,Fax charts will be interesting as we approach .

[Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January]

just a snippet on the st Jude storm ,it had potential ,caused trouble across some southern and london area .but one of those occasions that crops up in meteorology ,its predicted path about 12/18hrs before had the low crossing uk slightly further north ,it did not develope so quickly .indeed i went outside during the night and the low crossed fairly close to my area with lovely clear star lit skies ,but this low DID cause damage ,further s/east ,this low midweek this week will cause many a head ache for the Met office and expect horror headlines in the press in the run up ,and i also expect some surprises as we get low 850 mb temp after the low exits ,interesting times for us storm lovers ,

[Southwest and Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

Yea but all relative really. I was expecting a strong line squall for all with hail etc. As with all the cold fronts down here they get quickly weakened down by that stubborn belt of High pressure continually to our South. Pressure already up past 1015mbs and rising rapidly. It was certainly an unnoticed affair as it passed here.

same here on west mendip Gibby ,a non event realy ,but chins up gang a very interesting week next week coming up and could get very news worthy ,but i feel the azores high needs to shove off a little .midweek storm still possible at round about later wednesday ,but at five days away positioning critical .tonights late night fax should tell us or hint at possible track , i feel the human input from the met is usually not far off the mark but they should have a fair idea come later sunday .well IF current models come off we could see some surprises next week later ,as any features capable of producing our craved after snow will appear nearer the time .so lets hope model runs ticking away right now at the time of this post show a slight deflation of our friend MR Azores .  

[Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January]

Regards next weeks possible midweek storm ,just spoken with my friend from the met and the met office seem to think that next weeks low will be a weaker feature eventually and also tracking to the north of the uk ,pressure over the azores area now expected to rise by several or more Mb come midweek .but caution still required as adjustments at this range could be critical IFF this system does track further south .very ironic that my Met friend came home to an old fence post completely cracked this morning ,one further bit of news ,many parts of uk likely to see some snow fall chances after next weeks low ,more exclusively to hight, and latest guidance on longer range outlook high pressure setting up to our east /s east ,but detail at this range very mixed .

[Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January]

realy great to see action weather but not so good for those locations taking a battering .atleast the met office now have plenty of warnings out ,they have also taken into account that any low pressure systems will always have a more northerly drift in any future runs as my informant as just informed me on his finishing of shift .its all down to years of Media scrutiny ,and knowing how to move the goalposts compared to years gone  by .never forget the problems forecasting the great blizzard of Feb 18th 1978 ,right up to t12 hrs many possible locations of the weatherfront and its position ,phone calls frantically going between bristol and regional weather centres in the n/west and republic of ireland ,many a but got kicked but good came out of it .a fair chance now of much colder 850mb temp getting drawn south later next week ,so i will certainly be keeping an eye on Met office updates Fax and ecm but as we approach things could get interesting and change at short notice ,cheers gang very interesting hopefully times ahead .  

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Good morning all.

My thoughts haven't changed for around a week now so the models have been fairly decent in predicting the general synoptic for up to mid month. 

I said back then that somewhere in England would likely experience a decent snowfall in the run up to mid month, even if fairy shortlived and I think the output has firmed up on this cold zonal flow kicking in this weekend.

 

I'm not having a go but I think it needs pointing out that Temp anomaly charts for the next 7 days  don't really paint an accurate picture of the weather many will experience over the coming days.

After a mild spell into Saturday things will turn colder and wilder from the NW. temps may be only a little below normal in the North and around average in the South over this period but it will feel cold in strong or gale force winds at times and although rain is most likely in the South it looks cold enough for snow to low levels at times in the NW. That snow line will move up and down the country as winds veer between W/SW and back W/NW but North Lancashire and Yorkshire as well as Cheshire at times could  see heavy snow showers at times with temporary accumulations possible. West Scotland, NI, and anywhere from midlands Northwards with elevation could well see blizzard like conditions at times. There is scope for prolonged periods of snow again next week in among rain and gales so quite mix.

 

The North/South divide as far as storminess and wintriness is concerned looks as though it may continue for a while after mid month so what people experience in the SE will be especially different from those in the NW which is where some of the disagreements will arise. Someone getting blown around in a blizzard will stagger in and see someone post "typical January fare, temps around average" and likewise someone will get in from a typical wet and windy day and read how the winter has finally turned with cold and snow. IMBY and NIMBY posts are no problem but we should try to remember conditions on the ground will be very different at given times for large swathes of England to save bickering.

 

Mini ramp ahead.

 

The good news for Southerners, as I see it, is that during 3rd week of Jan the scope for snow will move South albeit the synoptic will be quite messy and generally zonal still so any snow unlikely to stick around away from hills.

The Operationals are starting to pick up on some very interesting possibilities during this period IMO. First Southerly tracking lows across the base of a UK trough which if the pattern develops and is far enough South with UK on cold side of trough could give very heavy snowfall for parts England and the South could get a heavy fall from any channel low in such scenario.Again conditions for any snowfall will be marginal but the possibility absolutely exists.

Also they are picking up a new signal which may or may not develop. They have been modelling low pressure pushing SE into the continent for some time on and off but they are beginning to play with the idea of low pressure diving SE or disrupting much further West. If this happens West of the UK then again it could lead to some very heavy snowfall if it is firmed up upon. So look for slider possibilities also in this 3rd week.

ECM 240h chart from this morning handily shows the possibility of both scenarios but it is also in GFS output. It is just another possibility to add to the confusion at the moment but I think this signal is gaining in strength while any sort of strong Atlantic ridge (for this period) weakens - though it will be the weak ridge that aids any slider.

 

 

So while it may be typical January fare at a stretch the second half of January could be very snowy at times and the South will not be excluded from any fun and games.

Looking further into the crystal ball last week of Jan could see a better attempt at blocking and deeper cold pushing in from the NE.

 

Caveats.

We could yet get a much flatter pattern with the Azores high playing spoiler which will give our weather a completely different feel to above but what I describe above is not hope-casting or farfetched. It is currently a reasonable forecast IMO based on current output. The problem is that any snow events look to be marginal and temps never particularly cold so someone may get average and rain while another gets cool and snowy and of course any changes tot eh output could be negative for snow chances rather than positive but If this pattern does develop the MetO are going to have a very difficult but rewarding forecasting period coming up!

If you are anywhere with a little elevation or further North then you will likely see some heavy snowfall on several occasions between now and end of Jan. If you are in the South you could just see wind and rain though your chances will likely increase later in the month.

Barring the AH playing spoiler second half of Jan looks fascinating and a deeper cold spell still looks like possibly forming in last week. Hopefully we will get lets of updates from Fergie on MetO thoughts.

well glad i read this post before attempting a very similar posting myself .since last nights model runs and todays runs i am much more confident in an eventual cold cyclonic outlook later next week .As Mucka mentions its in these sort of set ups that many can see some good snowfalls .Indeed after flicking through my large collection of Royal Met Soc magazines it becomes very clear that some very notable falls of snow can turn up in the sort of synoptic situation Hopefully we can reach later next week .So lets hope ECM Meto and the rest of our gang can all sing off the same Hymn sheet soon ,with regards of course to Snow . :cold:just noticed how much page space i,v created ,apologies ,

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

morning all ,looks like gfs both are our friends still this morning .very interesting 240hr chart from ecm today ,but as we all know at this range subject to big changes the next time it updates .my big straw taken from the models today would be the fair possibility of good 850 mb temperatures becoming more widespread in our kneck of the woods and low pressure much further south and eventually to our east .so not a bad day so far ,we just need a good throw of the dice ,but i will only be happy when ECM and UK Met hint more like the GFS .so we have some very lively weather hitting the UK ,and a great interest on where the gfs low of next week tracks ,could be dropped totally ,or it could slip further south but at this range there are many options ,  

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Yes very interesting period coming up ,and the possibility of storms through next week with hopefully colder 850 temp hanging around a bit longer ,realy looking forward to charts lets hope they are kind to us ,nothing boring in our hobby ,and its early days still plenty of time for changes ,cheers .

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Still good possibilitys ,a fair chance that some of us could see some wintry weather turn up after our second low currently forecast to be very low pressure of 940 mb well to the north of mainland scotland this weekend .also hints of lower 850 mb temperatures turning up next week .not sure what to make of ECM 240HR CHART ,but hoping it can lead somewhere perhaps with tonights model runs .if theres not going to be any big players this winter regards SSW or siberian high etc we will just need the dice to fall right .but currently 6th january i,m still pretty confident of some real winter fun ,and as my post of yesterday still expect some change come mid month .but certainly not boring model watching more frustrating i realy feel like taking the razor to our azores high and just to remind the scandinavian high that it needs to buckle up and play ball ,and the jet stream to take a hike further south .but more runs are on the way today so lets wait pray and see .  

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

I

 

 

Is that a snow event for southern England on the 12z GFS P that I can see?

yes please BANK ,dont Panic captain Mannering ,STellas on ice ,still plenty of winter still left 

[Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January]

from a storm lovers position  any storms now becoming confined to only northern most parts of uk ,after last years severe storms this weeks storms are realy just a reminder that we are only in a run of expected westerly flow for early January . looking at todays charts our friend the azores high is well in controll of our weather ,and checking on spanish weather sites a large rise of pressure is expected over the coming week ,but a shift further west is expected after mid week next week 14th/15th january .at this stage eastern europe in about 10 days time is expected to see a high pressure set up and on its western flank some extremely high temperatures including the uk .after this the high is expected to sink south allowing a mobile westerly flow back into europe ,with a strong polar vortex setting up over greenland /iceland ,later in january and early february a further rise of pressure over north africa and southern europe could set up some very mild temperatures for europe .this is not a personal forecast but taken from other forums and collecting data from Construction companies who pay for extended forecasts from many professional forecasters .we seem to be in a run of high pressure dominated synoptics to our south and s/west but personally i feel that mother nature will balance the books soon ,i dont believe that any agency can predict past 4 weeks ahead alone 2 weeks so we still have plenty of time for snow and cold in my honest opinion .  

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

good afternoon All ,glad Gibby to see your postings ,and you are ok .well us coldies are still awaiting something more wintry and with the first half of winter nearly two weeks away and signs of the next week still according to models remaining mostly on the milder side except for some brief colder shots i thought i would for a change stick my kneck out a little .both GFS models do show today a colder synoptic situation out past 10 days and the end of ecm also looks wintry ,at the moment it looks like the azores high could become displaced further west and north ,and lows coming out of n/east states and canada heading further south .at this stage theres a possibility of much colder 850 mb temp flooding south and s/east across us hopefully .so any poster writing winter off dont as its only 5th january ,so here goes my forecast for the last half of january ,mother nature to balance the books ,low lying areas of england and wales to see snow ,some pretty cold nights possible ,some lucky posters some not ,this is all based on current data and reading forecasts from around the internet . i fully expect the GFS runs to become very changeable pretty soon ,and i,m expecting ecm tonight to be well liked ,its great to be a part of NWeather forum i dont personally like Roller Coasters but this one is great ,    .

[Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January]

10 years on anybody?

 

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html

 

thankfully now it looks like the most severe of the weather will be much further north ,but at this range it could upgrade further south ,so plenty of interest in the models lets hope from a severe weather point of view our azores high moves further west with time but all data seems to suggest our high will be active for quite a while yet .

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

we could get lucky gang ,just spoken to my friends in toronto and their weather channel is in meltdown at the moment with upcoming cold snowy weather ,but they are saying mid month january a big pattern change could happen some where in northern hemisphere perhaps that somewhere is us ,i wont hold my breath but heres hoping .its been a long hard time watching this mild dross but nature does sometimes balance the books .heres too the best forum around 

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Expect to see the GFS and ECM produce winter wonderland charts in FI on one run to only completely abandon them on the next run for several days. From one run to the next doesn't matter but the fact that's theres even a remote sign of an end to this zonal weather hell is better than where we were. Enjoy the eye candy while it lasts

 STellas on ice ,ice pixs at the ready ,come on models its been a longgggg wait .

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Very nice to see today a swing in the Gfs runs out past 10 days .there are some who wont trust these charts at this range but somewhere in the models predictions i,m pretty sure that it has reasons to produce charts like this. Touching on the subject of Meridional flow across the British isles ,if synoptics are right all parts of the uk can get in on the act of colder wintry weather ,but of course the further you are located north the better chance you will get of a bite of the cherry ,but there again If a weather feature runs across to our south or a low comes s/east across our west us snow starved southeners could be sitting comfortably .this is by no means a ramp ,so today i,m certainly feeling a bit more up beat with the charts .I would surely want to see further runs from today firming up on any possible cold shot ,but i do feel that we are approaching a very interesting stormy spell of weather with any vortex moving away from its usual place of residence and atlast some higher pressure showing over variouse parts of the Arctic ,lets hope we can get the Dice to fall in our favour ,cheers all   

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Well i must say tonights ecm run does not fill me with cold weather expectations .even looking at gfs both models gives me a fear of panick   and IFF the met office were to suddenly show us all their data out to the end of January i think i would dive behind the settee and stay there till well april .But we are talking Weather ,give it a couple of days and we could be looking at some good eye Candy .i,v probably got well over 300 books on meteorology a thousand Roy Met Society journals and bought many old historical weather diarys ,surprises turn up all the time ,and i have met well respected scientists who have stated that Meteorology is so hard to predict out past 10 days yet alone 15/30 days .Well things will be kicking off big time across the pond so i surely expect a stormy spell after about the 8th of january ,ok Ecm looks very bog standard mild tonight but things could change quickly on future runs .but its great to debate which charts are more accurate and in advance thanks to anyone who puts in the work to find these things out .perhaps if the budget for collecting weather data was increased that would help ,but it would have to be one hell of an increase .anyhow anyone lucky enough to see the holy grail sat /sun ,all the best   

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

I would like to raise a glass to all our posters ,waiting for good weather synoptics can be very frustrating ,that big nasty atlantic to our left seems to laugh at us very frequently and our pain in our side mr azores needs to take a holiday .but i feel we are still in with a good chance with plenty of winter left .so Happy new year to all ,and a happy new year to our new model       .

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

I enjoy mods watching and have for many years especially of late , but never try and fall into the trap of  looking past day 7.. those experts among us that try to predict seasonal forecasts are flogging a dead horse as this is now the second winter on the trop that has been forecast to have a cold hearted winter (when predicted back at end of nov) 

I don't like to have my hopes dashed so therefore just look at what the mods are saying now, not nxt month...

Lets hope there will be something in store for February..

There could very well be something more wintry in store for the second half of January .met office hinting on long range forecast ,of course this is data charts we do not see .that hint is based on current data ,but to be honest in my opinion if over the horizon there is a northern block possibly modeled i,m sure we would see it sooner .so we just have to hope that soon we will see atlantic lows being modelled further south and heights in the arctic more noticeable  as the days go on .ok todays charts look typical winter fayre but past 10 days even 8 days we  could be looking at a new chapter .it realy is patience but we still have plenty of winter left .so from todays charts nothing of note regards real cold and snow but a fair chance that the atlantic could get very active past next say wednesdsay 7th january and if but not a big if, lows take a more southerly course we could be in for some fun here on the best forum ,would not have thought 10 days ago that my local lanes would have ice by the bucket load and pond frozen over and my carrots frozen solid in the ground ,Meteorology full of surprises ,catch up with you all on tonights charts ,   :drinks:I was quoting met office 30 day forecast with hints of colder drier settled weather ,but read into it at your peril but they do have some good software and have  come up trumps in the near past .2013 as an example ,cheers 

[Southwest and Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

temp down to minus 4c at 8 am this morning ,milk delivered about 5 am ,tops of milk frozen ,brilliant landscape just as sun was rising ,enjoy the frost as the atlantic is ganging up on us ,but i will only trust charts out to 7 days at best ,to me it looks stormy past next week with some powerfull atlantic lows lets hope they get modelled further south on tonights model runs .cheers gang . :smiliz21:

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Some good discussions tonight on our first class forum .All brought about by our computer models . i,v certainly learnt over the last few years watching the models that a complete turnaround can occur overnight or even during the day .personally i take the next 6 days charts and Data, Digest it accept it and then just wait ,so looking at a week away things will change in locations of high pressure areas, of low pressure whether or not a ssw will show its head and many other Meteorological big players .it could very well be that Tomorrow when we all wake up click on the computer the charts past five days would have changed [for good or bad ] depending on your preferences and your location in the uk .so after digesting all of todays data i can only come to the same conclusion as the pros at exeter who have far more data and charts at their disposal .but only a small miss calculation can bring us quite a big difference in the weather .our recent low must be a perfect example ,A gfs low centre moving to our n west then deepening and heading south east down north sea ,in the end it brought to some [lucky ones ]snow and now deep cold although short lived beets last years zilsh .I have not mentioned other models but just reminding some that things are not set in stone for the rest of winter ,So come on non believers plenty of winter left ,enjoy Stellas all round ,cheers   

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

good evening posters ,happy ones and not so happy ones .taking all models and data currently, after our current cold spell yes we are probably heading for a spell of westerly sourced weather .but using as an example Both  GFS models once we get to 8 days we start to see big differences from previouse runs ,and what catches my eyes is the possibility of some good Polar maritime shots .Any poster writing off winter at this stage in my opinion comes across as possible wind up material but entirely entitled to say that ,ok we do not have jam today but Big changes can happen ,we still have plenty of time for good cold snowy synoptics ,hope you all like my new hairstyle ,my old Avatar got lost somewhere installing my new computer and i,v just worked out how to install it ,roll on tonights charts ,cheers all   

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

True. It is only the weather.

Enjoy your day and be thankful that we were not around 100 years ago.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82101-christmas-truce-of-1914/

Merry Christmas everyone

my star christmas post ,and a thank you to all those brave soldiers ,remember all models at long range are subject to sudden change ,any wind up merchants around find another hobby ,merry christmas to all ,hope you all have a fantastic day ,enjoy the weather synoptics of the next 3/4 days could be a few surprises ,cheers  :smiliz64: