legritter

first area of showery rain this morning now scooted off east ,but its colder now at mid day than 9am this morning .i think quite a few will see some white stuff but heavier precipitation could bring it down to quite low levels after sun set .as i type [one finger ] rain as arrived ,would not be surprised to see lightning hail soon going by the look of radar out west ,fingers crossed for all .we just need a good throw of the dice and later this week and next could turn quite wintry charts past five days changing from run to run so hopefully in our favour ,

certainly a very potent storm coming up ,i,m not comparing it with any other historical storm at the moment as there is still some Uncertainty of its track and depth but pointing out that with the burns day storm this arrived during daylight hours and caused many casualties ,hopefully this one will arrive at its worst overnight but i fully expect gusts of around the upper 70s or even 80mph even in land .went into bristol last friday with my wife and we had a hard job to walk in local 40mph gusts with many shop advertising boards flying in all directions .the cold front associated with this low could provide some spectacular weather ,then to follow something interesting, possibilitys of something wintry for some ,but at this range 4/5 days we need to get the dice to fall right .so we reach the mid point of winter with the possible position of a low of 950 ish milibars ,will mother nature balance the books soon with a high of outstanding credit ,lets hope so ,

would be nice ,potential hopefully ,alot of weather to get through and this could be what some lucky posters are dreaming of .

Thanks for a very interesting forecast ,always good to read your contribution ,lets hope we can get a good throw of the dice with any snowfall chances .

yes i must admit i,m going to enjoy this week a real action packed and a quick change artist type situation from day to day ,and i,m pretty sure some surprises turning up .the end of the week could go many ways .saw my first sleet shower last night and watched it in the outside halogen lamp whilst sipping on a cup of tea ,very cosy [i must be mad ] some speculation now of a pressure rise towards the end of january ,Met office have been hinting for a while ,but its where that high sets up If it arrives ,and with february 20days away plenty more of winter left ,so gang seeing this is not the model thread cheers . nearly forgot the weather bomb .

yes you are very correct there ,timings, depth of low ,track ,whether its developing etc all very critical ,and of course we could have got the full force of it here .As i mentioned ,as the low passed over my area all seemed so weak and calm ,lovely twinkling stars ,but the beast had been born ,with europe as its target .interesting days ahead ,Fax charts will be interesting as we approach .

just a snippet on the st Jude storm ,it had potential ,caused trouble across some southern and london area .but one of those occasions that crops up in meteorology ,its predicted path about 12/18hrs before had the low crossing uk slightly further north ,it did not develope so quickly .indeed i went outside during the night and the low crossed fairly close to my area with lovely clear star lit skies ,but this low DID cause damage ,further s/east ,this low midweek this week will cause many a head ache for the Met office and expect horror headlines in the press in the run up ,and i also expect some surprises as we get low 850 mb temp after the low exits ,interesting times for us storm lovers ,

same here on west mendip Gibby ,a non event realy ,but chins up gang a very interesting week next week coming up and could get very news worthy ,but i feel the azores high needs to shove off a little .midweek storm still possible at round about later wednesday ,but at five days away positioning critical .tonights late night fax should tell us or hint at possible track , i feel the human input from the met is usually not far off the mark but they should have a fair idea come later sunday .well IF current models come off we could see some surprises next week later ,as any features capable of producing our craved after snow will appear nearer the time .so lets hope model runs ticking away right now at the time of this post show a slight deflation of our friend MR Azores .

Regards next weeks possible midweek storm ,just spoken with my friend from the met and the met office seem to think that next weeks low will be a weaker feature eventually and also tracking to the north of the uk ,pressure over the azores area now expected to rise by several or more Mb come midweek .but caution still required as adjustments at this range could be critical IFF this system does track further south .very ironic that my Met friend came home to an old fence post completely cracked this morning ,one further bit of news ,many parts of uk likely to see some snow fall chances after next weeks low ,more exclusively to hight, and latest guidance on longer range outlook high pressure setting up to our east /s east ,but detail at this range very mixed .

realy great to see action weather but not so good for those locations taking a battering .atleast the met office now have plenty of warnings out ,they have also taken into account that any low pressure systems will always have a more northerly drift in any future runs as my informant as just informed me on his finishing of shift .its all down to years of Media scrutiny ,and knowing how to move the goalposts compared to years gone by .never forget the problems forecasting the great blizzard of Feb 18th 1978 ,right up to t12 hrs many possible locations of the weatherfront and its position ,phone calls frantically going between bristol and regional weather centres in the n/west and republic of ireland ,many a but got kicked but good came out of it .a fair chance now of much colder 850mb temp getting drawn south later next week ,so i will certainly be keeping an eye on Met office updates Fax and ecm but as we approach things could get interesting and change at short notice ,cheers gang very interesting hopefully times ahead .

well glad i read this post before attempting a very similar posting myself .since last nights model runs and todays runs i am much more confident in an eventual cold cyclonic outlook later next week .As Mucka mentions its in these sort of set ups that many can see some good snowfalls .Indeed after flicking through my large collection of Royal Met Soc magazines it becomes very clear that some very notable falls of snow can turn up in the sort of synoptic situation Hopefully we can reach later next week .So lets hope ECM Meto and the rest of our gang can all sing off the same Hymn sheet soon ,with regards of course to Snow . :cold:just noticed how much page space i,v created ,apologies ,

morning all ,looks like gfs both are our friends still this morning .very interesting 240hr chart from ecm today ,but as we all know at this range subject to big changes the next time it updates .my big straw taken from the models today would be the fair possibility of good 850 mb temperatures becoming more widespread in our kneck of the woods and low pressure much further south and eventually to our east .so not a bad day so far ,we just need a good throw of the dice ,but i will only be happy when ECM and UK Met hint more like the GFS .so we have some very lively weather hitting the UK ,and a great interest on where the gfs low of next week tracks ,could be dropped totally ,or it could slip further south but at this range there are many options ,

Yes very interesting period coming up ,and the possibility of storms through next week with hopefully colder 850 temp hanging around a bit longer ,realy looking forward to charts lets hope they are kind to us ,nothing boring in our hobby ,and its early days still plenty of time for changes ,cheers .

Still good possibilitys ,a fair chance that some of us could see some wintry weather turn up after our second low currently forecast to be very low pressure of 940 mb well to the north of mainland scotland this weekend .also hints of lower 850 mb temperatures turning up next week .not sure what to make of ECM 240HR CHART ,but hoping it can lead somewhere perhaps with tonights model runs .if theres not going to be any big players this winter regards SSW or siberian high etc we will just need the dice to fall right .but currently 6th january i,m still pretty confident of some real winter fun ,and as my post of yesterday still expect some change come mid month .but certainly not boring model watching more frustrating i realy feel like taking the razor to our azores high and just to remind the scandinavian high that it needs to buckle up and play ball ,and the jet stream to take a hike further south .but more runs are on the way today so lets wait pray and see .

yes please BANK ,dont Panic captain Mannering ,STellas on ice ,still plenty of winter still left

from a storm lovers position any storms now becoming confined to only northern most parts of uk ,after last years severe storms this weeks storms are realy just a reminder that we are only in a run of expected westerly flow for early January . looking at todays charts our friend the azores high is well in controll of our weather ,and checking on spanish weather sites a large rise of pressure is expected over the coming week ,but a shift further west is expected after mid week next week 14th/15th january .at this stage eastern europe in about 10 days time is expected to see a high pressure set up and on its western flank some extremely high temperatures including the uk .after this the high is expected to sink south allowing a mobile westerly flow back into europe ,with a strong polar vortex setting up over greenland /iceland ,later in january and early february a further rise of pressure over north africa and southern europe could set up some very mild temperatures for europe .this is not a personal forecast but taken from other forums and collecting data from Construction companies who pay for extended forecasts from many professional forecasters .we seem to be in a run of high pressure dominated synoptics to our south and s/west but personally i feel that mother nature will balance the books soon ,i dont believe that any agency can predict past 4 weeks ahead alone 2 weeks so we still have plenty of time for snow and cold in my honest opinion .

good afternoon All ,glad Gibby to see your postings ,and you are ok .well us coldies are still awaiting something more wintry and with the first half of winter nearly two weeks away and signs of the next week still according to models remaining mostly on the milder side except for some brief colder shots i thought i would for a change stick my kneck out a little .both GFS models do show today a colder synoptic situation out past 10 days and the end of ecm also looks wintry ,at the moment it looks like the azores high could become displaced further west and north ,and lows coming out of n/east states and canada heading further south .at this stage theres a possibility of much colder 850 mb temp flooding south and s/east across us hopefully .so any poster writing winter off dont as its only 5th january ,so here goes my forecast for the last half of january ,mother nature to balance the books ,low lying areas of england and wales to see snow ,some pretty cold nights possible ,some lucky posters some not ,this is all based on current data and reading forecasts from around the internet . i fully expect the GFS runs to become very changeable pretty soon ,and i,m expecting ecm tonight to be well liked ,its great to be a part of NWeather forum i dont personally like Roller Coasters but this one is great , .

thankfully now it looks like the most severe of the weather will be much further north ,but at this range it could upgrade further south ,so plenty of interest in the models lets hope from a severe weather point of view our azores high moves further west with time but all data seems to suggest our high will be active for quite a while yet .

we could get lucky gang ,just spoken to my friends in toronto and their weather channel is in meltdown at the moment with upcoming cold snowy weather ,but they are saying mid month january a big pattern change could happen some where in northern hemisphere perhaps that somewhere is us ,i wont hold my breath but heres hoping .its been a long hard time watching this mild dross but nature does sometimes balance the books .heres too the best forum around

STellas on ice ,ice pixs at the ready ,come on models its been a longgggg wait .

Very nice to see today a swing in the Gfs runs out past 10 days .there are some who wont trust these charts at this range but somewhere in the models predictions i,m pretty sure that it has reasons to produce charts like this. Touching on the subject of Meridional flow across the British isles ,if synoptics are right all parts of the uk can get in on the act of colder wintry weather ,but of course the further you are located north the better chance you will get of a bite of the cherry ,but there again If a weather feature runs across to our south or a low comes s/east across our west us snow starved southeners could be sitting comfortably .this is by no means a ramp ,so today i,m certainly feeling a bit more up beat with the charts .I would surely want to see further runs from today firming up on any possible cold shot ,but i do feel that we are approaching a very interesting stormy spell of weather with any vortex moving away from its usual place of residence and atlast some higher pressure showing over variouse parts of the Arctic ,lets hope we can get the Dice to fall in our favour ,cheers all

Well i must say tonights ecm run does not fill me with cold weather expectations .even looking at gfs both models gives me a fear of panick and IFF the met office were to suddenly show us all their data out to the end of January i think i would dive behind the settee and stay there till well april .But we are talking Weather ,give it a couple of days and we could be looking at some good eye Candy .i,v probably got well over 300 books on meteorology a thousand Roy Met Society journals and bought many old historical weather diarys ,surprises turn up all the time ,and i have met well respected scientists who have stated that Meteorology is so hard to predict out past 10 days yet alone 15/30 days .Well things will be kicking off big time across the pond so i surely expect a stormy spell after about the 8th of january ,ok Ecm looks very bog standard mild tonight but things could change quickly on future runs .but its great to debate which charts are more accurate and in advance thanks to anyone who puts in the work to find these things out .perhaps if the budget for collecting weather data was increased that would help ,but it would have to be one hell of an increase .anyhow anyone lucky enough to see the holy grail sat /sun ,all the best

I would like to raise a glass to all our posters ,waiting for good weather synoptics can be very frustrating ,that big nasty atlantic to our left seems to laugh at us very frequently and our pain in our side mr azores needs to take a holiday .but i feel we are still in with a good chance with plenty of winter left .so Happy new year to all ,and a happy new year to our new model .

There could very well be something more wintry in store for the second half of January .met office hinting on long range forecast ,of course this is data charts we do not see .that hint is based on current data ,but to be honest in my opinion if over the horizon there is a northern block possibly modeled i,m sure we would see it sooner .so we just have to hope that soon we will see atlantic lows being modelled further south and heights in the arctic more noticeable as the days go on .ok todays charts look typical winter fayre but past 10 days even 8 days we could be looking at a new chapter .it realy is patience but we still have plenty of winter left .so from todays charts nothing of note regards real cold and snow but a fair chance that the atlantic could get very active past next say wednesdsay 7th january and if but not a big if, lows take a more southerly course we could be in for some fun here on the best forum ,would not have thought 10 days ago that my local lanes would have ice by the bucket load and pond frozen over and my carrots frozen solid in the ground ,Meteorology full of surprises ,catch up with you all on tonights charts , :drinks:I was quoting met office 30 day forecast with hints of colder drier settled weather ,but read into it at your peril but they do have some good software and have come up trumps in the near past .2013 as an example ,cheers

temp down to minus 4c at 8 am this morning ,milk delivered about 5 am ,tops of milk frozen ,brilliant landscape just as sun was rising ,enjoy the frost as the atlantic is ganging up on us ,but i will only trust charts out to 7 days at best ,to me it looks stormy past next week with some powerfull atlantic lows lets hope they get modelled further south on tonights model runs .cheers gang . :smiliz21: