legritter

January 28, 2015

Temp now 4.3 c and windy ,yes i think later tonight could deliver but very hit and miss as always in this type of set up ,i,v positioned my lamp ,told my wife i could be possibly curtain twitching tonight ,she said ok make sure you have clean hands and dont do it with room light on ,lets hope we have the dice fall in our favour over coming week or so ,plenty of weather features around though ,bring it on

January 28, 2015

I am very happy with current charts and Data but as is the usual putting the meat on the bones is very hard at the moment .but here we go the expected cold air is flooding south and snow showers for some and little features could pop up now we have colder temp crossing warm seas .so friday looking a day of milder temperatures and this weekend brings an arctic blast with the possibility of sudden developements which will i think be a very nowcast situation .interesting start to next week if we get a low track south east to our west ,but probably very frustrating for many posters as the track and many other synoptic variables could give a hit for some and a miss for others .and the prospect of a good cold spell developing as the models swing in our favour .realy hope we all get our Fix from some feature ,great forum and its only late January ,cheers

January 27, 2015

We are using UKV now for the higher-res PPN phase forecasting / accumulating snow likelihoods.

Thursday early hrs/ early AM is particularly interesting, given the continued modelling of a small-scale cold front moving south through W Midlands/Bristol Channel. Theta-W fields show this well. We suspect this could yield more organised prospect of snow showers for some districts of W Country/central-S England early Thurs but await further runs before committing to the notion with deterministic confidence.

Thanks again for your input ,very interesting spell incoming ,The magic of snow ,outside 500 watt lamp ready ,garden furniture all arranged for photo shoot ,fingers crossed ,

January 27, 2015

Good afternoon ,Hello hello ,very quiet on here ,well the fun and games will kick off tomorrow ,and we already have had a fair set of charts .but as is usual in this sort of synoptic set up we are kept waiting and waiting ,simply when we get the cold air in then the features that will bring any snow will start to develope in the cold air over warm seas so if you are getting worried each day could bring a surprise or two .Looking at the charts today i think more of an interest later in the weekend ,5/6 days away so with a bit of luck i,d say all to play for .I do suspect a lack of interest of some posters as the posts the last couple of hours as been minimal .i,m pretty sure many of us will see some snow but remember its a very now cast situation in this set up with even the professionals holding fire untill all available and updated raw data comes in .remember we are talking arctic sourced air for probably a weekor so loads of possibilitys ,Its realy Fax chart territory ,Forget some of the hype around and concentrate on our regular posters and enjoy what arrives after tomorrow ,cheers gang

January 26, 2015

Well i,m certainly liking current charts ,plenty of wintry possibilitys and i,m sure that many surprises will and can pop up with little warning .some are looking for the breakdown Again ,this is out at least untill next week and currently is not certain ,this cold period could get extended day by day .in fact todays 06 gfs run shows exactly that ,we need to enjoy this cold period and tonights charts could even be more mouthwatering .Fax charts i,m sure will change very quickly in this set up which is on the way ,cheers

January 24, 2015

Very good potential on todays charts so far .And if the pattern what is currently modelled for next weekend comes off i,m hoping for some features to turn up to give snow for many .But at this range we can only follow all models for the general flow .so plenty of caution from us snow lovers needed but i realy do hope many of us can see some snow and smell that Arctic air .Fax charts very usefull in this set up so i,m looking forward to some very interesting model chat from us Hunters of cold weather synoptics ,bring it on ,cheers all

January 23, 2015

I'm gonna say this is best case scenario for coldies, this shows at least a 6 day freeze....Not what the METO

are predIcting

Pretty sure the Met Office will come on board when they are more certain .plenty more runs needed ,but certainly some good charts popping up .current GFS run showing big difference at about a week away compared to last run ,tonights ECM needs to reflect the same ,cheers

January 22, 2015

Yes the Northerly of sorts has been showing for a number of runs now, Seems an ever growing trend of late. If this set-up played out -10 850's would touch Northern Scotland and Snow showers would push way South of the UK.

will certainly bank this ,but tonights ecm i hope will be showing an upgrade with our azores high shoved west some .of course Met office models we dont get to see in further outlook are showing colder and wintry flavour IF going by todays further outlook .we need plenty of upgrades and i feel the dice falling in the UK s favour ,so hopefully gang let the hunt commence

January 22, 2015

Quiet in here ... more amplification on 06z GFS mid-Atlantic by next weekend compared to the 00z - still not enough amp to head us into a full on northerly though ...

but hopefully some good signs emerging today ,lets hope 12z gfs shows a less strong azores high and tonights runs also show plenty of scope .Last frames of ECM this morning also promising but you can just see that big fat lardy azores awaiting to pounce but i could be wrong ,a diving south of the jet is my straw clutch today plus a possible rising of pressure on our side of the pole .do feel though that we need a big player on scene soon but we are only just half way through winter so all to play for ,catch you all up later ,Sausage sandwich brown sauce here i come .

January 21, 2015

good afternoon all ,must admit i,v just taken the last day off model watching .gone to bed and just looked outside at the weather [and no surprises ]feel refreshed today after sleeping .but its nice to see the possibility of a rather cold zonal later next week .hoping that we can get much more from either a good n/westerly or even northerly If we get lucky .but each day will continue to be a rollercoaster but with plenty of winter left perhaps we can at last get some deeper cold into n/west Europe and some lower 850 temp of say minus 10 .Model watching should come with a health warning but it is self inflicted when will i ever learn .read the instructions before looking at charts ,be aware of the side effects ,illusions of snow ,MOOD swings ,feeling tense ,Sleep disturbances ,all this aside we do have a very good crew on Net Weather so lets enjoy the next Hunt for Cold synoptics ,Roll on tonights charts and Stellas all round ,Currently future charts looking good ,

January 20, 2015

Steady light rain here temp 3.4 ,wind picking up ,we need some good precipitation ,could still be some surprises later me hopes .perhaps later in the night ,plenty happening on the radar ,those lucky posters further north could do very well ,off to put half a small chicken in the oven no chips but plate of veg ,then a thatchers cheers .

January 20, 2015

The radar's showing a small patch of sleet/snow over cardiff. Yet it's as dry as a bone, nothing falling from the sky at all. Not even rain.

probably going from frozen state [solid ]back to gas state ,happens quite often in winter set ups ,havent got time to explain fully but very frustrating ,certainly looks a snowy sky s /west from here we just need that dice to fall right later this afternoon .the low as started to move a little faster now and an easterly wind is picking up ,we just need that front to pep up and move in ,

January 19, 2015

As the current cold spells looks likely to deliver far less snow than many of us southern snow lovers were hoping.

I am trying to think of some crumbs of comfort for the rest of the winter and it has come to me in the form of The best spell of cold and snowy winter weather I have lived through( Dec 2010 aside). Way back in February 1978 After a week and half of bitterly cold days and nights with the odd snow shower, heavy snow (6ins) fell on my Dorset home from a west country slider on the the night of wed 15th Feb, the following night another west country slider did exactly the same thing again. Then on the sat 18th feb after a bitterly cold and cloudy day an easterly gale started to blow during the evening giving a blizzard which lasted for 30 hours in some place here in the southwest. Drifts of between ten and thirty feet were common place in exposed rural locations. This huge snowfall fell with uppers of just minus 2Â°C ( You don't always need minus 5 for heavy prolonged snow). The winter prior to this had been pretty non descript in southern England not unlike the current affair.

The point of all this is that by far and away the best snow storm I have ever lived through came in a cold spell that didn't start until the 8th of February in a winter that is not even in the top 25 coldest of the twentieth century. Hang on in there snow lovers the best snow doesn't always have to come in January.

brilliant post ,i lived in east bristol and we had a very good fall with some drifting ,i can remember it starting about 9pm on a saturday night . On the run up to this west country blizzard i had been a guest of the local weather centre on the run up to this event .it went down to the last wire and even 12 hrs before things were well from certain .places like Gloucester and Swindon only managed a peppering at the most .And not a cold winter generally .the following winter was snowy ,and yes South of the M4 did well on this occasion ,so dont give up hope ,im pretty sure tomorrow and early wednesday could deliver for some ,met office are being very professional over this Synoptic situation and IF needed can put out warnings to many institutions now on the internet ,a good day for radar and cloud watching tomorrow ,lets hope for some lamp post or security light watching .

January 18, 2015

yes watching radar very carefully ,looks like heading in our direction but quite often these little features can fizzle out ,if it does make it to somerset it could be snow ,so heres hoping .temp here now 2 c

January 17, 2015

well ,its only early in the GFS run but good signs regards the high to our n /east ,we are still talking about 3 days untill the trough moves in from the west to affect us , come this time tomorrow things could look different in snowfall potential .A very fascinating and nail biting time for Model watching on the cards .ok it could be that the Atlantic does win out for a while but hopefully with cold into europe and perhaps our lovely azores booking a holiday further west we could get some dream synoptics we all crave for ,just look whats happened over the last week concerning the charts ,things could flip back in our favour tomorrow .And goodnight from me ,Fax charts update eagerly awaited gang .

January 17, 2015

News on M4 Demolition ,the M4 is being moved during the following 2 yrs ,work starting soon according to reliable sources ,the met office have a grant funded by W N S ,[WE NEED SNOW ] ,THE WINTER OF 2016/2017 will be a snowy one ,lows ganging up to move up english channel with a high situated over finland with a ridge to iceland lasting from late november till late march ,you will be able to walk across the ice from Southampton to isle of Wight .Skating in Bristol channel ,currently temp of 3.8c light rain ,crack open a STella and enjoy ,

January 17, 2015

Yes there is no clear signal, just one of several possibilities. If we look at the GEFS at T120 we have 7 members who are outliers ( I am assuming the first slider is now the most likely scenario). We can therefore discount the signal at D8 from them (mostly zonal, one bucks the trend). So when you take the rest as a collective only 33% at D8 are now zonal. The rest at least draw another 2-3 days of colder synoptics. Thats why the mean is not of great use at the moment as it has high clusterings of members that are completely wrong, be it the sliders or non-sliders.

This is of course only one run (and the 06z to boot) so we need to see that trending, but as more members join the sliding cluster the trend will become more apparent.

The ECM on Tuesday is modelling a short wave in the SW that travels east, it mixes out the uppers but with its own precipitation signal; so would be very interesting if it verified and if other conditions allowed it to fall as snow:

150117_0000_90.png 150117_0000_96.png

The sattelite low sounded fine ,thought it was a new weather terminology ,but good that we can Edit our posts .the fun on here certainly makes up for some of the let downs i,m sure .looking at all output next weeks weather looks very interesting and still i feel will pop up a few surprises ,perhaps a russian high backing west ,not completely out of the question ,patience is the key as always ,great forum cheers gang

January 16, 2015

Yes we have recently replaced our blind in the kitchen as dirty marks on the corner because of a snow watcher ,i promised my wife i would stop ,but feeling the urge again if we get lucky tonight .,and following days .i,v instaled a new 500Watt lamp out our back so i can sit and smoke watching out for a flake or two .Certainly gone colder now also air feels drier so hopefully this weather front could deliver under any persistent precipitation .looking at mon /tues low, it all depends on location and orientation of the occlusion and how far east it finally gets ,and of course how active it is .but at 3/4 days away possibly many twists and turns to come if you are looking at charts ,but i give it a fair chance at this range ,was nice going across the mendips on wednesday ,although afternoon still a nice white landscape .

January 15, 2015

How much do I hate these 4 little words when you keep hearing probably rain....

" South of the M4"

But to be fair I'm no expert but the charts look like we will all get snow at some point during the next few days. â„â„â„â„â„â„â„

yes very good looking potential for next week ,Fantastic charts and many posters in with a good chance of snow ,i must admit ,[south of the m4 ]is fast becoming a very annoying saying to me ,from my IMBY perspective ,tonights charts eagerly awaited ,perhaps met office could include the m4 corridor on their charts ,catch up later all .

January 15, 2015

Not a bad GFS 06hrs run, I hope people can just remain patient and not get too hung up on the actual 850's if the easterly verifies.

It's very difficult at this range for NWP to be accurate, deeper cold pools can form nearer the time. Although I think we're unlikely to see some 5 star cold theres a decent chance of something close to -10 850.

Much depends on how the Euro trough sets up, as the initial slider slowly fills you don't want the UKMO view of the low centre off the sw because this is more likely to draw up some less cold air into eastern Europe, after this you want the troughing aligning ene from France and as far east as possible to cut off any less cold air from getting drawn into the circulation.

The high near Scandi will try and escape se so you need this blocked off by troughing underneath.

In terms of the slider low still some room for changes but at this point its going to be hard going to avoid some less cold air from being drawn into the circulation, this is temporary as soon as this drifts sufficiently se then colder air will return.

yes very difficult to put any finer detail concerning precipitation for next week .with just possibly 1c temp making a Very big difference in any one location ,regards sleet snow .if i could hope for one change it would be for any possible pressure rise over scandy currently modelled to kick in a little earlier ,but certainly very good charts and possibilitys ,i,m pretty sure that each Fax chart will show some surprises .If low pressure does get set up to our south there could be a chance of fronts pushing back north ,tonights runs eagerly awaited and plenty of debate to increase our knowledge on the best weather forum around ,Stellas all round gang

January 14, 2015

morning all ,first off we have very good looking charts in front of us for wintry potential .dont look at just one run or a particular day especia;lly when looking past 5 days .Met office produce Fax charts out to T120 simply because thats the limit for any fair agreement of any frontal systems ,positioning of lows etc .in my many years of weather knowledge looking at what is shown today i would say there is no guarantee of snow in any one place come friday onwards ,but many places will get it if current indications pan out .but certainly A Lot of weather of mixed variety to look forward to over the coming week .

January 13, 2015

rain as just turned to sleet and wet snow Temp currently 1.7 c ,fairly large wet flakes ,just need another 1c drop and could be in with a chance .tonight will be if you catch these hvy showers ,radar looking good we just need some persistant precipitation ,if it comes along i feel confidant it could give a good covering .

January 13, 2015

good afternoon ,my practice on chart downloading is nearly complete ,just need to get the chart to appear on my post .we are i feel sat watching the possible change we were all hoping for and todays models are delivering .As other posters have pointed out we dont need a big block situated in a clasic synoptic situation just some reasonable low temperatures if a trough front approaches aligned correctly .A Historical example would be Feb 18th 1978 ,low tracking s/east then east /s east to our s west ,it was a surface high on near continent that gave us the temp for a pasting for some .i do so much like todays ECM ,hoping tonight will be a big upgrade of sorts in its later frames .Gfs a very usefull tool for finer detail sometimes and of course Met Office Faxes very handy for getting a feel on how things are changing during the 24hr period .Another point regarding current possible synoptics is that we can get situations say 4 days ahead which look good for snow then it is taken away ,but another good possibility arrives because of that developing situation ,all very frustrating but we are weather watchers ,so i will finish and await this evenings model runs ,

January 13, 2015

first area of showery rain this morning now scooted off east ,but its colder now at mid day than 9am this morning .i think quite a few will see some white stuff but heavier precipitation could bring it down to quite low levels after sun set .as i type [one finger ] rain as arrived ,would not be surprised to see lightning hail soon going by the look of radar out west ,fingers crossed for all .we just need a good throw of the dice and later this week and next could turn quite wintry charts past five days changing from run to run so hopefully in our favour ,

January 12, 2015

certainly a very potent storm coming up ,i,m not comparing it with any other historical storm at the moment as there is still some Uncertainty of its track and depth but pointing out that with the burns day storm this arrived during daylight hours and caused many casualties ,hopefully this one will arrive at its worst overnight but i fully expect gusts of around the upper 70s or even 80mph even in land .went into bristol last friday with my wife and we had a hard job to walk in local 40mph gusts with many shop advertising boards flying in all directions .the cold front associated with this low could provide some spectacular weather ,then to follow something interesting, possibilitys of something wintry for some ,but at this range 4/5 days we need to get the dice to fall right .so we reach the mid point of winter with the possible position of a low of 950 ish milibars ,will mother nature balance the books soon with a high of outstanding credit ,lets hope so ,

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Posts posted by legritter