legritter
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Posts posted by legritter
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Charts and data today does support a dramatic warm up next week .
But the weather could become balanced on a knife edge with realy hot temp 30c plus being at a premium for some .but with a nudge of the pattern 32 could be achieved .
Its going to be interesting watching this event unfold and already the media are latching onto next week making headline news ,but we have been there before and at this range many options still possible ,certainly Model watching will be interesting ,so lets be thankfull we have some interesting weather on the horizon ,sit back relax ,get the drinks on ice enjoy
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Standard GFS this morning in its 06Z run. What it giveth in the 00Z it now takes away, a major punting eastwards of the plume for the middle of next week. Next Wednesday now 13/14C cooler than was progged in the prior run.
Also notice the deteriation in conditions Friday through Monday, increasing cloud, rain and drizzle from decaying fronts that become trapped across the UK, with a flatter Jet and less oomph from HP ridging up from the South another mediocre weekend looking increasingly unlikely.
In effect FI starts next Monday but given the models continued mis-positioning of plumes intitially to far west in the 6-8day range it looks increasingly likely the 06Z run will be fairly close to the mark with maybe one warmish day in the extreme south east before a buckled jet and assocaited trough becomes established over the UK later next week.
What a happy first post - sorry!!!
A big welcome Alderc and your post sums up what i was about to post ,and if projected low pressure also from other charts arrives we will be chasing for a day wth the bbq ,but as always things could move back later ,thats the weather game ,lets hope it changes cheers
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Yes it would be nice to lose this nagging west or north westerly wind .
but some hope in the charts today with some real heat moving in to parts of europe lets hope it as our name on it .
Still i feel we have the possibility of low pressure creeping in from the west hinted by some data ,as usual time will see but lets get those bbqs dusted and plenty of cool drinks just in case .
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Looking at todays charts and as others have pointed out no heatwave but certainly some usefull weather around .
even early next week things are uncertain but south looking more likely to see anything like summer .
then looking further ahead low pressure mid atlantic and a possible rise of pressure across europe , if the two can become favourably situated we could see some real summer weather .
But more runs needed and as usual time will tell ,perfect day today here lets grab it and enjoy .cheers
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Lebapper .
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Brandstorm pickle sheeted over a nice sausage Bap ,and a pint of nimbuSTella cheers
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my neighbours asked me on thursday night is it going to be thundery overnight and during friday of course i said yes all coming up from france .
I should have known better by now ,after taking down our clothes dryer in the garden some of my recording equipment from on top our shed and getting all my photo equipment set up , a real let down here ,but the same as our snow chances [we have plenty of time left ] no doubt we will be all at it again soon .
well a nice thatchers gold and some sausage baps will go down well tonight ,
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Well hopefully any action could be when it starts to get dark this evening .
a Very frustrating radar watch but with current conditions aloft i think we will soon see isolated cels just mature as the colder air out west moves closer ,also what was moving n/west from france as now gone more northerly as the low moves closer .
best of luck all .
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Past experience says hang on in there ,yes its frustrating watching the radar and what i,m trying to do is keep away from the radar for a few hours .
i
,m pretty sure it will all kick off later this afternoon and some locations will get some good storm action and locally some high rainfall totals overnight .
i,v known total cloud cover but still finished with a good storm .
best of luck for all ,currently light spots of rain here ,cheers all .
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Certainly looking good storm wise for cornwall /devon looking at radar .
Still not sure how far east any storms will be tonight ,As another poster has pointed out it only takes a small cell to fire up and turn into something worthwhile for other areas to come into the firing line ,in this set up i,v seen storms develope very quickly ,hope plenty of posters get some good ones ,an interesting day on offer tomorrow into saturday ,cheers .
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Realy hope many posters get their storm .What is becoming a real concern is the potential for very large rainfall totals ,when i lived in bristol back in 1968 a thundery low developed and caused carnage but areas not that far away were just very wet .
we did have frequent thunder and lightning but with the noise of the rain and murk it was the rain which won the show .
As this is a developing situation i think we will be in a far better situation regards areas to get hit later this evening .
Its great that posters are sharing their knowledge here on this forum ,as many years ago [yes i,m 63 nearly ] we never had the internet but bbc was good and of course local met office , i would watch the southern skys with fingers crossed and get realy excited when those first flashes occured in the distance ,looking at current info i would say any storms tonight could be very intense but still hard to pin down still even at this hour .keep the info coming please ,i,m off for a Bap and to get my loyal old fashioned camera up and running .cheers all .
dont panick captain mannering theres a storm coming .-
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not a bad old day for tidying up the garden today ,but still that annoying wind and big areas of unwelcomed clouds but when the sky cleared it was rather nice .
Hoping for some weather action come later thursday and friday ,would be nice to see one of those night time storms that you can read a book by and send the soot down the chimney .
its a good job the old jack daws have fledged ,cheers .
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The Gfs 00z shows warmer and more humid weather spreading up from the near continent across England and Wales, becoming very warm in the far south on Thursday and quite widely across the south and southeast on Friday with 26-27c for the SE. Thundery weather with torrential downpours push north during Friday but with sunny spells too.
What really caught my eye on this run is the mid to late June period which shows high pressure building in close to the south through next week and then a major change to very warm / hot anticyclonic conditions for the whole country, a north / south split for most of next week with the south having a lot of fine and pleasantly warm weather the north of the UK staying unsettled for a while longer but looking further ahead, these charts would really put the Flaming into June.
yes looking at charts and Data this morning theres plenty to give us hope of a warmer high pressure dominated spell of weather from next week .and with the sun or should i say daylight hours being at their maximum every possibility of some great bbq weather with STellas ,but certainly now looks like a very wet for some and potential thundery spell looming and attacking us from the continent ,certainly not boring but i,m sure many twists yet to come as the models firm up ,great to see some interesting posts ,cheers gang .
perhaps that nagging chilly wind as got the message .-
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w09's words are a joy to behold, especially for those who missed out last week. While it's still not a given, it is better chance for a wider area.
Yes agree totally ,although detail still patchy it looks more interesting ,we dont always need high temperatures but the ingredients are there ,as for comments on storms now compared to yester year ,i,m pretty sure that over a span of many years the big ones still turn up ,interesting times .
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I realy hope the dice and all the right Atmospheric conditions come together later this week to give many of us a cracking light show .
very hard at this range to get a handle on any locations or intensity but the chance is there so i,m happy with that .
looking at current charts it looks like some areas could see some noteworthy rain , cheers all .
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Things looking hopefully good for thursday /friday but areas and intensity of anything thundery we will i feel have to wait a few more runs . certainly a good bet for thundery rain but all the elements need to come together ,i,m hoping for some night time fun even if its short lived ,but certainly interesting for us storm starved posters ,will put STellas on ice ,cheers all .
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Well looking at the Radar here you would think its steady rain but just DAMP AND WINDY .
Probably will turn heavier as the front gets closer .
looking forward to some weather action later this week but i think all the models will only get a grip come later wednesday .
Went out for a long walk in the woods today and still loads of bluebells ,wind now started to pick up ,cheers gang .
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The GEFS 12z mean is again looking superb between early and mid June, more than likely through late June too. Becoming warm with a good deal of sunshine everywhere and very warm in the south, mid 20's celsius is realistic across the south from later next week onwards. Like I said before, the south has a good chance of gradually tapping into very warm and humid continental conditions if our anticyclone migrates to the east / north east or north of the UK. A major pattern change is now less than a week away.
Yes things looking rosy on tonights charts with warmth replacing this cold nagging wind we have had this May ,although we have had some good days the cold seems to be hanging around that corner waiting to pounce .
Lets hope high pressure gets the upperhand ,or we could see humid wet days ,are we ever happy ,cheers all
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The GFS 6z really hots up and becomes very humid during FI with temperatures into the low to mid 80's F as we import continental conditions into the UK with an airmass sourced from north Africa / Spain, there is a thundery breakdown and then the Azores high looks like it would start to build in again. The signs are increasingly good for a nationwide spell of warmth and high pressure from mid / late next week onwards.
Yes todays charts certainly giving more reasons to be cheerfull about .
i,m still sat on the fence but i,m becoming more confident as all the big players are now singing together .
just waiting now for certain headlines to appear ,but its great that we have our own weather watchers and a big thank you to those who regularly post on here ,Crack open a STella on ice we may all need it soon ,but some cool wet weather first ,cheers gang .
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I would realy love to see what the Met office are saying come too fruition .
Yes they have a good track record ,and charts are showing high pressure come early June but low pressure at the end of this month and some rather wet and cool conditions also in the mix .
Its the location of any high pressure which needs to fall into place so i am going to wait till we have some firmer agreement from our main models .
Patern change possible but many twists and variations could happen ,so heres fingers crossed ,cheers all
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I realy think its a hard one to call as the end of this month and early june looks unsettled looking at current charts and data .
I realy want to see THE met office high pressure situation come off perhaps we may get a halfway house with high pressure over europe and a low pressure area to our west ,some high heights also showing up to our far north ,Atleast not boring but as i say hard to call and plenty for us to muse over ,cheers gang ,
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Evening gang ,i,v just had a look at the charts and Data [the first time in a while as other things are keeping me busy ] and i can only say No big heatwave yet ,but no washout so lets just hope that eventually high pressure will drift in closer to our shores .
I think i can sum up current synoptics ,its been good out in the garden today but our gas fire as just gone on ,but as an older poster with cold legs its comfort ,take care all
i,ll have a half .-
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The Ecm 12z shows a warm day for England and Wales on monday, very warm and probably sunny for the south east with 24/25c likely. Looking at next week generally, Wednesday/Friday & sunday stand out as looking fine and pleasant in most of the UK, the most unsettled weather on this run is further north/northwest with high pressure staying close to the sw/s/se which is where the driest, brightest and most pleasant conditions would be although by T+240 it's unsettled for all.
Lets Enjoy any sun and warmth we get over the coming week .
Having just sifted through the further outlook charts we could be seeing a rather unsettled period later in the outlook .
we could infact be looking at some very interesting weather ,but as usual nothing set in stone but some signs afoot .
How much influance the azores high will play could be crucial ,great day in the sun today but a spring nip in the air tonight .
Cheers gang .
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Well early next week looking like it could turn more settled and with some warmth .
but looking across over hudson bay area high pressure looks like sending some low pressure areas into the atlantic so we need some rise of pressure from our friend the azores high ,i said our friend i must be loosing it , but there are hints on the charts of that possibly happening ,but there again if the high sets up shop too far west we could get a blast from the north /west .
so more runs needed and its only early days yet , today as been drab and i hate that nagging wind ,STellas all round gang .
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dont panick captain mannering theres a storm coming .
perhaps that nagging chilly wind as got the message .
Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Certainly some real good potential now showing for thunderstorms next week .
but at this range very hard to be accurate ,looking at current charts my guess at this range would be to see some very good storms but slow moving ,lets hope they hit during overnight period .
we realy need to get to late tues /wed before areas can be named ,so lets have some cracking storms and plenty of posters getting in on the act ,STellas at the ready and blackout blinds for those of a nervous nature ,i realy understand those who dont like storms as my sister sits under the stairs , well lets enjoy the chase cheers