legritter
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Posts posted by legritter
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Yes certainly some action weather about ,some winners and losers but those lucky ones could see some good storms .Radar showing only a very slow progress westward but intensity looks good ,and still developing so surprises could pop up overnight and again tomorrow .bring on the darkness flashes ,i might go on a flash watch tonight peeping out of window ,Snow starved after this winter so lets hope we all get our storms ,looks good around gloucester area keep the reports coming in ,cheers .
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Any action seems to be further south of our area ,but fingers crossed we did have a rumble earlier here on mendip and whats to our s east could swing our way ,bring it on and lets get some night time flashes ,cheers gang .
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Any action seems to be hit and miss but a few locations doing well for action ,we did have a long rumble about an hour ago .a pulse of v hvy rain around hampshire dorset area which could hit other areas further west and n west ,but still developing situation, plenty of possible chances to come over coming days so fingers crossed ,bring it on ,cheers all .
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I may be totally wrong ,the modells later next week may be totally wrong ,so may my sea weed ,but i have a feeling in my water that the weather will become more volotile looking at current charts .Dont forget folks we all post on the best weather forum in the world ,long ,may it last ,cheers
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evening all , well as others have pointed out ,any action possibly starting later Next week .i wouldn t want to bet at this range ,Every run seems to change in location of main high pressure area ,but Easters are well known for surprises ,and not the chocolate ones .,Take care all ,
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Just thought i would pop in and say hello ,other issues have been keeping me busy ,well looking at current charts no big weather events look likely over the following week ,but beyond that it could all change tomorrow ,
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cheers to a good thundery spell ,and may it continue through to the autumn ,plenty of Spanish plumes and Night time rattlers .ok we missed out on the snow in general ,best of luck to all posters ,bring it on ,cheers all .
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Good morning all posters ,well looking at charts it looks like the weather is going to become a QUick change Artist ,atleast not boring and some of us this weekend can dust off the barbys cut the grass and enjoy a few stella on the patio .then what ,well plenty of possibilitys including a wet breakdown from the s west possible ,Vast flocks of sea gulls overhead ,so some of the White stuff possible ,its been a long frustrating winter lets forget this one ,Crack open the STellas and enjoy ,Perhaps the summer from hell is on its way .cheers gang .
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Afternoon all posters ,Three weeks without a Computer ,its been hard but been looking at bbc charts ,computer now repaired .Its nice to be back and catching up with weather charts ,oh to have had some of these charts back in our winter .i will catch you all up later cheers .
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Well next friday is the last day of February will real winter appear to grace our storm battered Island with a blanket of the white magical stuff .well quite possibly looking at current charts , I can see the headlines now ,Councils caught out as Snow blankets UK ,Snow minister appointed ,At this range its a fair shot and we do need to see some upgrades but could be our best shot yet ,Frosty is working on the charts now ,and Joe Lamminate will be making his predictions after another 14 runs of the main models ,and i predict record posters will flood back onto the Forum ,it certainly as been a very interesting winter period and i think we all need to read some of the posts of early December ,if only to remind some of us ,including myself that we did not know what was around the corner ,i think our winter will be a good learning tool to professionals as well as Amateurs .
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Gibby ,Thanks for your take on the models twice each day ,but crikey both of Gibbys posts today are on the same page ,where have all the posters gone .still a possibility of some wintry weather perhaps later next week looking at ECM end frames ,well we are knocking on the door of Spring ,but last March did bring some of us some Snow so a bit of time is left hopefully .im pretty sure having a mild winter this time as been frustrating and Prozack moments have been experienced by many including myself ,but i must admit having absolutely amazing zonal severe weather since early December as helped me through this winter ,does look though that later next week could get interesting again ,at least i saw some snow if only for 5 mins but it was hvy and magical .A bit of everything so far including 4.1 earth tremor today ,Great Forum this ,wish it had been around 40 yrs ago ,cheers .
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A rumble of thunder ???? very pleasant here today , sunshine - a few showers , but very pleasant .Found a daffodil in my garden about to bloom andblue tits checking out my nesting box...........
Yes brilliant day here on west mendip ,sat outside in the sun ,bumble bees about ,ravens buzzards and perigrans over head ,blackbirds are looking in bushes for nesting sites .sun still streaming through the window and yes bulbs well up with some probably out soon .i bet the wildlife as taken a hammering this winter ,and still some mixed up weather still to come by the look of the charts .
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No respite for the flooded areas this week, more rain exacerbating the already critical situation, thursday looks very rainy but with perhaps the north most in the firing line as a wave feature runs along the front enhancing the rain even more and slowing it's progress eastwards..one to watch.
Morning all ,well todays charts are showing yet more rain and zonal weather .but i think every run this week will show big changes as lows develope out in the atlantic and head towards our Magnet of an island .nothing big showing yet but real Potential for secondery lows to form and looking to our east n/east with pressure there possibly rising fronts could stall with time .Im off to see the bank manager for a loan to start building Boats on second thoughts i may invest in a bulk load of Sledges ready for next winter .-
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Beautiful day here today. Max of 8.7C after a low of -0.7C with near enough unbroken sunshine all day - the roads are now completely dry and not a puddle in sight. Shame it was just a one-day affair. I could see the high cloud ahead of tomorrow's weather arriving on the western ho
possibly a halo again tonight ,yes what a cracking day ,warm in the sun ,bumble bees out and i think a pair of blackbirds are up one of our fir trees thinking of nesting .Fantastic forum this for keeping people informed ,
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The daily express couldn't tell the weather forecast from their elbow. Where is the three months of record breaking snow. Makes you wonder where they get their forcecasts from? Any suggestions
Yes they totally got it wrong ,scaremongering as usual to sell their papers ,but the only bit they got right was [winter from hell ]a bit of luck on their part .I suppose this summer will be the summer Hells kitchen 45c for three months ,lets go back to early December and not even the Experts had a clue of what was to come ,thats the weather folks ,take care .
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I,v just had a cup of coffee up garden ,unbelievable in the sun .even joined by a bumble bee ,great to see and a help to many i guess .but plenty of rain in the more west of our region and troublemakers turning up later in the week ,cheers
The sun as affected me head or was it that coffee .-
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Evening gang ,just been out side and theres a lovely Halo ,perhaps the high level cloud from our next system approaching .next week looking tamer but our area looks under threat again monday for rain which could get upgraded over time .but looks like things will fire up again later in the week .perhaps the wind tamer but plenty of rain on offer in further outlook ,and so it goes on ,its so quiet tonight this time last night it sounded like a freight train was passing the neighbourhood .cheers .
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Early Yellow warning out for Tuesday in the south west with another 10mm to 15mm widely and up-to 40mm locally over high ground
Issued at: 1150 on Sat 15 Feb 2014
Valid from: 0015 on Mon 17 Feb 2014
Valid to: 2345 on Mon 17 Feb 2014
Another spell of rain is expected across southwest England during Monday. This is not expected to be as prolonged or heavy as in recent days but still has the potential to exacerbate existing flooding problems given the saturated state of the ground. The public should be aware of this possible further flood risk and disruption to transport.
Chief Forecaster's assessment
Another spell of wet and rather windy weather is expected across southwest England during Monday. The associated Atlantic low pressure system is significantly less energetic than recently but may still lead to some exacerbation of existing problems given the saturated state of the ground. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 mm seem likely quite widely and perhaps 30 to 40 mm locally, mainly over high ground. This Alert will be reviewed on Sunday morning.
Areas under the warning
Devon, Cornwall, Dorset, Plymouth, Poole, Somerset, Torbay, Bournemouth, Isles of Scilly
And will probably include areas a little further north ,more added to the pot no doubt and a good top up coming later next week .last nights winds here were up a notch on wednesdays storm for here on west mendip ,but whilst sat outside late last night in porch sheltered it sounded like a freight train with a roar of a jet overhead .and Yes we have childrens trampolines blown all over the place ,but the big thing i did notice was how mild it was mid evening ,take care all and a great forum .
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anybody else having probs with raintoday
It seems to do this when very busy as you can understand ,will probably catch up with frames later .
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Moderately heavy rain shower & an overcast sky. Nice :/ changed quickly. Really windy now too!
im about 8miles away and can see your very dark sky ,missing here but temp just dropprd .
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I am a well known cold weather and snow fan as much as anyone on here and probably at least as much as you as well, cooling climate, but objectivity comes first, imo, I think in this thread, and most especially atm in the continuing atrocity of the winter pattern which has kept managing to attain levels of sustained high impact and severity that are as deeply worrying as they are astounding.
Previous posts over the last week or so have attested to a relaxation of the most extreme conditions after the next storm system on Friday/Saturday wreaks even further havoc, but that simply means in the first instance that severe gales and storm force winds become less likely. One would like to call that a start towards improvement, and of course it is in terms of one dangerous hazard at least removed from the equation - but does the modelling look any more conduisive to making the rain stop and easing the horrific flood problems as it does in bringing in any cold spell such as you keep predicting with such confidence?
Its easier imo at at least to answer the question about any cold 'potential' first. The evidence from the stratosphere continues to suggest that sequential warmings as seen higher up continue to flatter to deceive and are not propogating to the surface, and also failing to sustain themselves and make any difference to our surface weather in the troposphere.
Vorticity remains firmly to our NW and truly significant amplification also remains in the wrong sector of our NH to influence us downstream and there is good ensemble agreement for this vorticity energy to continue to leak depressions downstream over the coming 10 to 15 day period albeit with less intensity than present.
It seems clear to me at least, that the latest attempted split in the pattern and amplification wrt a weak surface rise in pressure is very unlikely indeed to lead to the sort of appealing scenario the ECM suggested this morning and the pattern will stay too flat for the foreseeable future, albeit with the temperature gradients reduce somewhat stateside the cyclonic activity is set to become less intense.
There remains scope for eventual pressure rises down the line towards months end as suggested previously for reasons given then - so a real improvement may finally occur in terms of the weather painfully slowly drying up. At this stage, imo at least, that has a much better chance of happening first rather than any change to a much colder last third of February.
Its a drying up of the pattern which remains too far ahead than ideally wanted for most if not all of the country and that should take precedence I think over chasing phantom easterlies - and that is coming from someone like me who is one of the biggest fans there can be of them.
fantastic post ,yes im a snowy fan ,but for the sake of safety any significant cold and snow can wait a while ,plenty of rain to come yet over the next 7 days and models becoming interesting ,cheers gang .
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Never mind about snow Ian we have just had one of the most intense hail storms in Radstock I have seen for years. Ice everywhere making our rush hour very difficult
absolutely fantastic sky clouds as that storm tracked to my south from here about an hour or so ago ,grabed camera which as been out in car for a while battery flat ,grabed my old manual camera no film ,not sure of exact wind gusts here but would say short of burns day storm ,but sat in amazement watching our fir trees .If the synoptics and track of late fridays storm come in to line right it could be just as bad ,take care all and get some sleep tonight some will see the white stuff some wont ,cheers .
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Note the gale warnings just issued for the southwest; Lundy, Fastnet and Irish Sea.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast/#?tab=map
An upgrade from this morning's shipping forecast already. Hurricane force 12 imminent (within 6 hours)
Just came on forum to post same thing ,good job tides are in low mode ,possibly burnsday storm type weather today ,take care i got caught out in that one ,midafternoon a massive tree came crashing down across the road frightening ,take care .
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Only the ECM can show a south westerly from the Carribean and then on the next run have a bracing easterly straight from Siberia.
Look at that cold heading our way
Well said Captain ,plenty in the charts to keep us glued ,certainly no let up on the horizon unless later ecm frames verify ,and then another possible hazard SNOW ,looks like a very interesting model output to come .
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on second thoughts i may invest in a bulk load of Sledges ready for next winter .
Convective / Storm Discussion - 21st April 2014 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Some action kicking off over the channel ,a hard one to call but hope for some ,lets hope we are in the firing line .we had one or two isolated cells develope today over mendip but only large spots ,looks like a rash of tiny action breaking out ahead of main rain area now heading north and n/west .cheers .