[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Hi  gang,mr rabbit looks smart .great reading all your posts . Good to see plenty of variety in the weather. Personally i think next real wintry spell will start later next week,cant back this up with charts ,just wanted to pop in and say HI GANG.Cheers .

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

1 hour ago, khodds said:

Did anyone see a bright light in the sky under the moon earlier? Around 6pm. I thought it was a star/planet but it was BIG and gradually faded and went below the horizon so couldn’t have been and if it was an aeroplane it’s lights would have been the other way. It was there for some minutes and wasn’t a meteor

Earlier tonight i saw jupiter and low on the eastern horizon was Mars .did see the moon very briefly from the bus window .The International space station was about around 5pm i think .An Aeroplane as you said going away from you would be not so visible ,unless it was dropping from a high altitude which if directly towards you appears to hover for up to a minute or so  and can then turn and drop and dissappear out of vision .mind you in this type of very clear visibility in winter i have seen a statick bright flash about the size of venus appear then dissappear and pop up several degrees away ,probably not  so bright as venus , then you dont see it again .all this over several years ago early hours of morning after my evening shift at work .Another forum several years ago explaned to me that it could have been Satellite break up like junk .But i would have thought that would have tracked across the sky like a Satellite. I Think if it were Alien s , they would do an about turn and be out of our solar system in a flash .Loving this cooler weather , may be a sniff of snow  flurries  in outlook , hope you are all ok , i do pop in this forum for a read most days as its light hearted .cheers all  

 

 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

Hi gang , the met office are professionals as most of us  know .There is the potential for wintry hazards as we can see on the latest charts especially after this coming Wednesday which is 5 to 6 days away. . With their experience and extensive tools at their disposal and Past BUSTS ETC  they will not stick their heads out and say widespread Snow at this stage 5 to 6  days away .Neither will they hold back if charts and data suggests that the uk public are very likely to experience disruptive snow and freezing temp etc .Also take in to account the cost of living crisis and heating etc ,and as other posters have said the newspapers and other media outlets causing , ........... many problems which is the last thing we need right now in the UK .Keep an eye on the latest Fax charts  ,Ecm up to say 144 hrs ,and uk met the same .Also our brilliant knowledgeable posters , and give the curtains a twitch and be Patient. Cheers gang and im off to the kitchen for a sausage bap with coffe ,eyes down for the GFS  run in 15 minutes  . 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Hi gang ,very good winter synoptics are on the table, colder weather gradually reaching most of the uk .And even deeper cold waiting in the wings . 3 Months of Model watching , Ecm and Met office two runs per day =182 runs each and our friend the Gfs a total of 364 runs .Garden paths galore,prozack times ,throwing in the Towel ,curtain twitching, telling neighbours its going to snow ,visions and dreams of Minus 510 Damm lines and a frozen english channel you can walk on .Todays model runs are very good for cold wintry weather ,Let the Hunt commence gang , sausage baps all round .

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Get the cold in first Gang and the sausage baps will follow .I'm loving these winter synoptics and great posts ,big thank you to you posters for your inputs, cheers gang .. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A big change taking place tomorrow in the overall pattern, after about 6 weeks plus of incessant mild southerly/south westerly/westerly soruce airflow with a trough seemingly stuck on rotation to our west, high pressure that has been in position for most of this time further to our NE is on the attack, and with a very weak jet, will have easy time in taming the atlantic - very abnormal for what traditionally is the most 'westerly' period of the year.

The rest of this week will bring continuous easterly flow, nothing particularly cold for the time of year, just a little below average, with frost reserved for sheltered western parts, sunnier and clearer further west and north you go, duller to the east and south. Not very inspiring conditions for the south and east. The main theme is dry after 6 weeks of endless rain.

I've banged on about the 5th for quite some time now, and it is from then on things become more interesting, models showing a low/trough feature to the south developing as heights begin to advect to the NW, in the shorter term the models show these to have some influence - possibly giving fairly mild conditions for the south at least, but the north most likely to hold onto the cold, and we then have a recipe for a stand off, with the cold in with a good chance of ousting away any milder attempt from the south. All a long way off, but such battlelines make for very difficult forecasting and I would expect the risk of snow will increase markedly. 

In the meantime, expect the models to play around with the position of high pressure to the NW and lower pressure to the south - swapping places all the time.. until things creep into the reliable.

Hi gang, the above post is very similar to what i was about to post .Very interesting synoptics will play out , each day at a time with many twists along the way .take care all all round .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

Great posts gang,I'm a lurker and enjoying current outlook .Yes let's get the cold in and perhaps with warm sea temperatures we could see some of the white stuff .Net weather Forums its a 10 from me ,no not 10 day charts ,usual sausage baps and Stella's , take care all cheers . 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

Morning gang ,great posts as usual which makes good reading in the lead up to Winter . Yes Ecm looks great at 240hrs and gfs looks dire , we have many 10day charts to look forward to so i tend to look at the 168 hr time frame unless of course a ten day chart is showing a block to our north or nw /ne !! , great reading posters take care and Sausage baps all round and Stella's of course . 

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

Hi gang,Great posts and discussions on our upcoming Winter .We do have some encouraging signs that cold spells could arrive in our kneck of the woods in the near future possibly after a very stormy period first . But we all know there will be many wild goose chases and prozac times ,throwing toys out of prams and throwing the towel in ,then when we peep at a ten day chart showing snowmaggeta if thats the right spelling we will pop back into the forum for a good old Ramp . Sausage baps are at the ready gang and brown sauce ,Stella's on ice ,dreams of 510 Dam , sea ice on our shores ,Channel Lows , Lake effect Snow , polar lows ,radar watching and curtain twitching.  I am very aware of current living crisis so lets hope for a balanced winter ,but mother nature will do her thing ,cheers gang . 

,

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

Evening gang,hi posters great to be reading again on this forum .I have been lurking around and looking forward to the upcoming winter months .Great posts as usual on the best Weather forum around .Take care all and yes Stella's all round and Sausage baps are always on the menu ,cheers . 

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Hi gang ,temperature at 2pm 34c ,getting quite cloudy now ,we had a light breeze earlier. Radar watching tonight, and fingers crossed for a storm , but any look very isolated, tomorrow looks the best bet .cheers . 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Hi gang ,temp just hit 27.3 c ,hoping for some action weather around over coming few days, but think that radar watching and good luck will be key ,cheers . Winscombe, north Somerset .

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Evening all ,well  lets hope we can all or most get some real humdingers of storms next week . Will be watching all charts like a hawk later this week ,all enjoy the summery weather ,i still read the posts and enjoy the occasional Sausage Bap , take care all .cheers .. 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

My prediction ,11am for warnings ,sausage baps at 1pm ,cheers gang .

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

Evening gang ,I've been reading your posts in between some DIY over the last 2 months ,great forum for sure .Looks like the weather gods are going to give many of us a taste of winter with the dregs of a cold arctic being shunted way south in our direction .Too early for nailed on or set in stone but from my experience and reading all the charts etc ,certainly a very interesting time cold wise coming up. Sausage Baps are still on the menu and Stella's all round , take care all  . 

 

[Storm Franklin]

Certainly many places will see a day of action weather tomorrow ,currently warnings are yellow ,i am sure Amber will be added in the morning .850s will be falling ,and the DAM will eventually fall to 528 , could be that a few surprises lie ahead .All this is better than the crudy mild constant benign spell we had in January and early feb , cheers alll .

[Storm Franklin]

Brilliant discussion gang  ,there is potential for a very stormy squall line , i feel warnings will be updated later tonight or tomorrow morning. Some better 850s around later ,take care all brilliant posts , and sausage baps for you all .

 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Hi gang ,just thinking about the great snowstorm of February 18th 1978 ,  on the tuesday 14th feb the fax for later that week showed a forming low pressure moving south east from s ireland ,will it bring snow to southern uk ,those 4 days before arrival were nail biting for me , what a difference 44 yrs make in meteorology , but even in this modern age with more computers the weather still as surprises , its certainly been a very interesting time this storm watching, i need a good nights sleep tonight ,so please no surprises ,cheers gang .

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Evening gang, the storm that stands out for me is the Burns day storm ,bristol mid afternoon was crazy ,that for me was outstanding and memorable. Todays storm also memorable, lets hope we can have a few lows crossing northern france , with some lower 850s in place . A great day today weatherwise for all of us posters to learn from each other ,take care all , sausage baps all round  .

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Hi gang ,polite notice to any TROLLS on our friendly forum ....... Go Fly  a kite ...., ,here on west mendip we've just had very strong gusts ,now gone quieter but expecting as the wind turns more north of west another v windy spell .remember gang ,the Met office i feel have done a professional job with this storm, and remember Meteorology is Not an exact science  .stay safe all ,and be polite ,we all have different views on life , we are so lucky with having these forums ,cheers and yes sausage baps are on my menu . 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Hi gang , eunice packing a punch in the last 20 min here on west mendip .typical calm period earlier this morning fooled many people including myself , stay safe , great posts from you guys and gals , cheers gang .

 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Morning gang ,all very interesting weather chat , brilliant posts which i enjoy ,shall i dare mention sausage baps and Stella s . Fridays storm still posing a problem to which track it will take ,but its going to be expected to give one hell of a blow for many .Its also becoming possible looking at the charts that we could see another possible 2 storms ,Franklin and Gladys next week , January was flat and lifeless, all we need now is a few channel lows with good tracks and we could shout SNOOOOW, Cheers gang .. 

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Hi gang  ,certainly quiet on here today .Atlantic stiring up in further outlook, we need a powerful area of low pressure to move to our east so lets hope tonights Runs look in our favour. Of course a nice direct Arctic blast would be good,  at least its only very early February, take care all ,yes sausage baps are on the menu today ,cheers .

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

Evening gang, later stages of tonights ECM is fueling up my imagination. So will tomorrow bring the prospect of a killer Blow to our friend the magnetic snow cold hating big blob of a high pressure thats been annoying us for too long now .I am still convinced that we will see wintry charts ,some amazing even phenomenal low pressure systems being modelled for the north Atlantic, so an uptick for some changes ,sit back gang ,feet up ,sausage baps and STELLA all round, gfs soon ,ecm only 10 hrs away , cheers gang .. 

 

 

[February 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

4.3 c ,rainfall 76mm ,cold spell for all mid February, probably more named storms .