legritter

The suspence is nerve grating ,Will ecm throw a cracker in the works . v good day model wise so far best position so far .another way of looking at things could be Fridays low getting modeled further south .but i expect GFS to show many synoptic situations in its later frames especially if an Arctic high does set up shop .Certainly not boring .

If we can get the pattern right it does not take long to set up some cold air .Looking at the GFS pressure is rising very nicely in the polar regions but GFS is still showing a low of very deep pressure Just to the south of it ,looks a bit odd to me and i would expect if Gfs is correct on polar high that low should be further south ,so lets hope at this range its struggling with correct pattern ,just another take on it .i havent watched the end of the run yet as posting but we are a few steps hopefully on the road to our Fix .Looking forward to ECM and GEM tonight ,

Although tomorrow looks very windy and wet i have noticed the tone from weather forecasters come down a notch today as appossed to yesterday ,also my cousin informs me that the Met office have informed his transport company that the worst as been shunted further north so rain becoming a bigger threat to transport companys in our area .But still a very active Monday and early tuesday .Christmas day looks a fine day with slightly cooler temperatures and boxing day milder with sunny spells .Next fridays low seems to be heading much further north with high pressure pushing up from the S/west so next weekend mild but breezy ,and some signs of High pressure over spain and france setting us up for a possible very mild start to 2014 .But early days yet as the weather at 10 days is hard to model .Bumble bees visiting our pansy plants ,bulbs well and truly out ,but the weather can fool us .,remember Jan 20th 1947 extremely mild in parts of early january then the beast from the east visited for Seven weeks .

you never know who.s lurking in the shadows ,like you dont know synoptic situation two weeks from now ,and it could be creeping up on us in disguise .brilliant photo ,

Nice to see the vortex being attacked at last ,its early days yet with many days of ups and downs expected in the Models unless we get a smooth ride which i dont think in this weather game .Absolute loads of weather coming up over the coming week or so ,so it should be very interesting going forward .still some uncertainties regards Christmas day and boxing day as troughs at 4/5 day range are hard to predict so some possibilitys as regards the white stuff somewhere and considering where we were 10 days ago it sort of gives you an idea how hard it is trying to predict Jan 1st at this range .catch up later after tonights runs wonder what s out on that horizon which is so UNpredictable ,Cheers all i,ll have a Half .

Well certainly still interesting Model watching with plenty more Zonal weather over the coming week or so ,and a little light perhaps at the end of the tunnel regards some higher pressure perhaps attacking the arctic regions .Thanks to Mucka for helping me out with updating charts ,no luck yet i think i need a crash course on computers but will get there hopefully .Lets hope we all get Lucky over the Christmas period in any hvy precipitation especially if the Dice falls right .cheers

Icant get ECM to update from the last run ,is it just me or a glitch ,Cheers .

Well the burning question now is how much Longerrrrr will we see a constant stream of abuse being thrown at us from across the Atlantic and a troublesome high Laughing at us from central and eastern Europe .I suppose it depends on what lights your Candle whether you want to see a pressure change and to what degree .So far today looking at the models is certainly Groundhog day But we do have a few signs of perhaps some higher pressure trying to set up shop over the Arctic.And some colder air being draged in behind some of the Atlantic Lows and troughs .we can only Wait and just hope with 9 weeks of Winter left that us Coldies will be rewarded eventually .Eyes down for the Evening runs and STellas at the ready .

Fantastic post FROSTY lets hope your right ,but models i feel this morning on a knife edge ,looking to a better run from ECM this evening last few frames this morning no Christmas chear ,STellas all round gang .

Well the last few frames on tonights ECM a bit tamer but certainly a very disturbed spell of zonal weather to come for quite a while yet .But we all know it will probably all change for last couple of frames again tomorrow .Still i think small features will pop up on every run now but at this juncture No major pressure change is showing on current output .Certainly very disturbed out there now so i think its quite likely that the current spell of weather will be of Note when the weather history of our island is written up .And on that Note what comes next still to be decided.

Model watching is always going to be a painfull process especially if you are looking for your type of synoptics to turn up .but i would say to new members ,Read the posts of some of the regular posters ,pop into the learning area and look at past events in history ,history in meteorology does not always mean things repeat themselves but you can learn fascinating facts and apply it to your learning skills .Well im pretty sure looking at all current data and models that the next 10 days or so will be full of interesting weather and each day giving the Forecasters a new challenge as new features pop up in a very mobile and gradually turning colder weather pattern .BUT cast your mind back to friday the 6th of December ,and as i said last week on that date it was all talk of Euro tripe etc ,I for one had the Euro blues ,but look where we are now ,and where we could be two weeks from now in what is an eternity in forecasting time .Well GFS is in the kitchen cooking up ,and ECM tonight could lets hope be a good one .

Just had a fairly strong gust here .truckers reporting strong gusts and hvy rain in some parts of Cornwall .This front when it comes through could be extremely powerfull looking at SAt ,,later tomorrow with just a bit of height looking increasingly wintry ,but we need to be nearer T12 to be more sure .wouldnt be surprised to see something wintry tomorrow evening going across the mendip Highway to me mother in laws cheers gang .

Very interesting Model watching coming up especially If some cold uppers do appear .each day new possibilitys and new Synoptics to talk about .And with Christmas still 7 days away the synoptics for that day could change quite significantly .So for some thinking this Winter is Doomed from a coldies perspective ITS ONLY JUST BEGUN ,about ten weeks left plus the bonus of March ,The hunt is on ,Stellas at the ready i,ll have a half .

just like to add that myself along with many posters am a cold snowy Chap ,hoping for that High to the north with plenty of snow chances ,but i keep myself happy with other interesting weather .but im not giving up hope ,That Vortex can be broken and who knows whats around the meteorological corner .

Brilliant POST BY iAN Furgusson .There is plenty of action weather coming up and probably new features will appear each day during this current set up .YOU realy can find interest in other weather synoptic situations with out having raging easterlys every week of every winter .So tonights Models firms up on stormy outlook with cold air gradually being brought in to the mix ,SO CHILL OUT .

Certainly looking very stormy right out till just after the Christmas period ,with some very large rainfall totals and some wintriness chucked into the mix on todays models .It will always be a hard time getting deep cold into our Neck of the woods but when you take the millions of times and probably more that perfect Synoptics have set up shop in this part of the Northern Hemisphere its only a matter of time untill we get lucky again .Looking out past 10 Days we will nearly always have the models showing a possible pressure change as past this range is a long time in Meteorology .My Big Straw at the moment is perhaps the very strong Vortex and a winter so far dominated by high pressure over parts of europe could swing the other way over the coming 10 weeks of winter .ok we dont have deep cold but if you like action weather get out the STellas and sit down relax and i dont think you will be disappointed .

Sorry my previouse post was posted incorectly ,clicked on wrong quote i think .

A new thread , lets enjoy what the models throw at us in this very interesting disturbed spell over the coming week or so .plenty on offer going by todays output and Data ,and plenty of surprises in the very quickly mobile synoptic situaton that could gradually get colder if those colder 850 s come a visiting .

Well looking at current model output, Christmas day boxing day period which is still 8/9 days in the future could produce almost a surprise for many at this range .plenty of very active weather to come before this period with some uncertain outcomes .Fax charts very usefull and Reading met office updates Daily .Certainly not boring as new features every day are likely to be picked up bringing us interesting outcomes .So at this range possibilitys for all ,so lets enjoy .

Im taking orders gang for a low pressure system running across northern france come later next week ,and for a premium little extra charge some cold air in place over the continent ,Just a dream ,well anything at this range is possible but certainly looking at the current Models alot of weather to come ,enough to keep us interested ,Stellas all round after tonights runs .

MY Current thinking looking at the models is it would only need some medium adjustments ,and considering this period is at the 10/15day range who knows ,and mother nature is very much alive in our neck of the northern hemisphere so all to play for .

Well gang ,looking at models charts ,we may not have cold heaven But we certainly have Major weather events forecast for our island in what could become very newsworthy events .also an increasing risk of colder air being pulled into our shores .its all starting to get interesting and each day bringing even deeper Lows into our kneck of the woods .But the christmas /new year period still open for uncertainty in this very mobile pattern .

I think interesting times are ahead Model watching with each daily run of all Models giving us plenty to discuss. Todays GFS run was a complete turnaround but at that range it can be expected ,although the 528 dam wasnt that far to our north so i expect some interesting output to crop up soon .Tonights ECM was about as i expected it .But i must admit it is looking hard to get out of this current synoptic situation ,that is if thats what you want .so the weather is certainly not boring and plenty of time for many weather types to emerge over the coming winter months ,

Yes i would expect many changes to the GFS predictions for Christmas period and beyond and at 4 runs per day we could see everything including the kitchen sink ,two hours till ECM is out will this keep us glued , but a lot of weather to come and interesting times so its eyes down gang ,