al-Tikriti
-
Posts
17 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by al-Tikriti
-
-
I love snow and have travelled where there is 'proper winter' rather than the watered down UK version but I hope this time that the local authorities and train companies pull their fingers out and get organised. It reallt isn't difficult to cope with snow chaps and when London and the SE grinds to a halt it has significant economic impacts that we don't need right now.
Personally I am hoping for a dusting tomorrow!
-
Just wandered on over to the model output thread and I think some bans will be issued today. Is the 00z NWP output the 'kids club' or something?
-
what are streamers??
Experts correct me if I'm wrong but a streamer is often linked to 'lake effect' snow and are enhanced by geographical features concentrating winds onto a particular area. For example the heavy London snowfall of Feb '09 was caused by a Thames streamer.
-
if upto High resolution was not cherry enough. T192 + till the end is simply undescribable
Agreed but what has caused this sudden turn around in model output? Could someone with more technical expertise than I please give an indication of how the GFS got it wrong for a couple of days and has now backed down?
-
Bonkers FI. Snow event anyone!!!!
What kind of snowfall totals could we see from synoptics like that chart?
-
Aye, Monday night through to Tuesday morning could finally deliver the goods, if the GFS is on the money!
You should be getting a very nice dose Mr Ponce.
-
Thank you GFS for finally seeing the light. I forgive you your trespasses of the last two days. Now for the cold!
-
newbie question...why is that a good thing if you don't mind me asking?
To put it very simply they are helping to pull the high pressure towards Greenland. Just what we want for a tasty Greeny block.
-
Maybe model fatigue, but looks like a movement west at 42hrs......maybe wishful thinking though!
I believe GFS is prone to westward correction. Or is that one of those model myths?
-
Will that pivotal shortwave move on a southerly track or will it bulldoze due east? Has a short wave ever been watched with such anticipation?
Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
While we all debate the performance of the NWP I hope the opportunity will be taken to learn lessons from this most fascinating period of model watching. The volatility of the models and the record 'shannon entropy' will hopefully give us a chance to refine our knowledge of the models and refine our weather forecasting in the future. A post winter analysis will also help to point out the strengths and failures of the models in the face of this volatility.
The NWP of course is an attempt to predict the behaviour of a chaotic system and this chaos has been very evident this week. Lessons to be learned by both old and new weather watchers. British weather in particular never will be predictable or follow pretty patterns, unless of course that pattern follows fractal geometry LOL
Finally although the models have not fallen into lockstep, realistically we can expect a cold second half of winter. The chance of mild still exists but IMHO is receding fast.