Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

al-Tikriti

Members
  • Posts

    17
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by al-Tikriti

  1. While we all debate the performance of the NWP I hope the opportunity will be taken to learn lessons from this most fascinating period of model watching. The volatility of the models and the record 'shannon entropy' will hopefully give us a chance to refine our knowledge of the models and refine our weather forecasting in the future. A post winter analysis will also help to point out the strengths and failures of the models in the face of this volatility. The NWP of course is an attempt to predict the behaviour of a chaotic system and this chaos has been very evident this week. Lessons to be learned by both old and new weather watchers. British weather in particular never will be predictable or follow pretty patterns, unless of course that pattern follows fractal geometry LOL Finally although the models have not fallen into lockstep, realistically we can expect a cold second half of winter. The chance of mild still exists but IMHO is receding fast.
  2. I love snow and have travelled where there is 'proper winter' rather than the watered down UK version but I hope this time that the local authorities and train companies pull their fingers out and get organised. It reallt isn't difficult to cope with snow chaps and when London and the SE grinds to a halt it has significant economic impacts that we don't need right now. Personally I am hoping for a dusting tomorrow!
  3. Just wandered on over to the model output thread and I think some bans will be issued today. Is the 00z NWP output the 'kids club' or something?
  4. Experts correct me if I'm wrong but a streamer is often linked to 'lake effect' snow and are enhanced by geographical features concentrating winds onto a particular area. For example the heavy London snowfall of Feb '09 was caused by a Thames streamer.
  5. Agreed but what has caused this sudden turn around in model output? Could someone with more technical expertise than I please give an indication of how the GFS got it wrong for a couple of days and has now backed down?
  6. What kind of snowfall totals could we see from synoptics like that chart?
  7. Thank you GFS for finally seeing the light. I forgive you your trespasses of the last two days. Now for the cold!
  8. To put it very simply they are helping to pull the high pressure towards Greenland. Just what we want for a tasty Greeny block.
  9. I believe GFS is prone to westward correction. Or is that one of those model myths?
  10. Will that pivotal shortwave move on a southerly track or will it bulldoze due east? Has a short wave ever been watched with such anticipation?
×
×
  • Create New...