Lincs Observation

TwisterGirl81 yes indeed here in Lincolnshire it has been a stunning day and warm to boot, even though the temp maxed out at a lowly 12oC it felt very pleasant, we are turning a corner now as we move toward summer, so regardless of snowy charts or more rain I think as Sam Cooke sang a change is a coming

Morning all i know we are months away from Summer but with all this unpredictable energy and against the grain modelling is anyone casting one eye upstream for spring/summer signals, it’s been a dreadful winter thus far and the bells are starting to toll but it does make one begin to wonder if we will have an extreme summer too.

ANYWEATHER your absolutely correct we live in a maritime climate, and it’s right to say our weather is one of the most complicated in the northern hemisphere, however I still would argue that global weather patterns are becoming increasingly volatile which ultimately does effect even our small isle, I don’t think it’s a case of blaming anything, just an observation of how things have changed, the disturbing thing is its pace and downstream effects.

Good Morning all heres my two penneth on model outputs, some on here quite rightly in a normal situation referencing model outputs from years gone by as a guide to trying to work out potential outputs now, however I think now more than at any time in recent history this approach vary rarely give a viable conclusion. If you really think about it a model output in 2018 is never going to give viable clues now due to do many climate based changes for instance warming seas (slowing down of the Gulf Stream) erratic jet stream, rises in global temperatures due to global warming and other micro global phenomenon. Im not convinced that these variables are factored into models because the conditions are to prone to wild swings in short time phases. We have seen many outputs interpreted in good faith by very knowledgeable individuals only to be undone in a relatively short time scale, the amount of times I even listen to experts from the Met saying they can’t pin down forecasts even two days away because the simply can’t predict a track of a system until the very last minute. My thoughts are that any references to models from the past simply can’t be used as a tool to predict global weather patterns now as we are in a completely different and volatile place and I don’t know now how it will be done but a different approach is needed. The saving grace I suppose will be data collected now in the most volatile part in our climate history will eventually filter into outputs but could take time. im no scientist just my thoughts for debate.

Anthony Burden how many times have we been this close this winter, still days away and could still change, forgive me for been cynical but if it still shows this set up by Tuesday then my confidence will grow

Some post Christmas cheer or maybe optimism into 2024. Depends on your seasonal stance I suppose

Looks like everyone can take a break and relax for the next week as me move into the transition, might do some of us some good to look away from the models before we go again in the lead up to the Christmas holidays. time to concentrate on Christmas shopping and pre Christmas work parties. This last period has been very interesting indeed and I suspect that the fun is far from over as we turn into the new year. back in a week to see what’s going on

To be fair I was not intentionally watching the forecast, I have BBC breakfast on so hard to avoid really

BBC weather predicting warming up from the west/southwest this coming week pushing the cold air away from the UK. im not quite sure looking at the models this morning and posters comments that this entire wipe out of the cold from the uk is entirely right. less cold for a week or so before a gradual return of the cold is my take on things but hey im a plumber not a met expert

Surely with the entrenched cold over Russia and Northern Europe any warm air progression will be muted considerably as it tries to push against it. the more entrenched the cold the more difficult to shift it will be, can only be good moving forward ?

Apparently satellite information concludes 60% of continental Europe is covered in snow.

Standard click bait

The question is I suppose is what is the norm in a maritime climate, in the 70’s & 80’s the view I suppose was the norm but since I’ve rarely seen a straightforward winter. Those who were around in the 50’s 60’s would say there winters were the norm, global warming and extreme global weather patterns have complicated things somewhat. So anything that happens in our day and age is not normal in my opinion and the chase is exciting for some trying to make sense of what is going on. you have to concede especially in this country particularly we have never had constant variables and as such no normal weather.

I don’t think at any stage it was suggested a mini ice age was coming, it was suggested a pattern of weather not seen in the Uk since 2010. Now I know that’s not come to fruition that’s true and some maybe guilty of over expecting that said you have to agree that the model patterns are different this winter and not seen for many years. You can’t blame people for been a little over excited in the current global climatical synopsis

Totally agree here, this has been an unusual year weather wise and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. the El Niño is dealing out some quite dramatic weather globally that coupled with global warming is leading us into unknown territory. looking at historic trends is not going to give us a clue this year at all in my opinion in the current climate

More detail from another source on X

Posted up in a few sources on X interesting

It’s still an IF at this point I’m resolute on not being pessimistic at this very early stage of winter. Still to many permutations in the offing and this has and remains no ordinary year climatically. i don’t see this winter been that straightforward.

What is everyone looking for the breakdown already? blimey we barely a day into this cold snap and it’s all doom and gloom. have some perspective people we won’t be in perpetual freeze at some point things have to change but I feel it wlll just be the end of this phase before the cold returns and hopefully stronger

I wonder if this is the end of this sequence and soon to follow after will be the start of the same scenario set. I mentioned a few days ago I feel this could be a potential set and reset winter, it will be interesting to see once this phase is over. nothing scientific in my thoughts other than the way this year has panned out so far and the feeling any milder weather will be the full stop on a phase of weather before returning to what we are currently in and repeated as we move forward over the winter. like I say just a big big hunch

True

Sounds familiar like the storm ciaran

Morning all lots of snow charts been posted this morning, the one thing I have learned over the years on this forum is not to take them literally. snow forecast charts are extremely ambiguous and areas to see snow are notoriously difficult to pin down almost to the day, too many variables come into play on a snow event. so my advice is look by all means but take with a pinch of salt, that way if you don’t get any your not disappointed or if your lucky you will no doubt be pleasantly surprised.

Morning all in my opinion we do need a bit of perspective here, this is the first cold shot of the winter so early doors, and I feel this pattern in the current climate could repeat a few times over the next 16 weeks or so been more solid as we move forward. Also we really do need to get the cold in bedded over the next few weeks to increase snow chances further down the line. so I would no be too despondent at this early start we have good signs people keep the faith and play the long game

I am beginning to wonder and in light of the weird weather this year whether we are seeing the seeds of a set and reset pattern trend for the winter months ahead.