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Tim M

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Posts posted by Tim M

    Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 minute ago, The PIT said:

    Too much of southerly component for us hence only 53mph max gust.

    Let's hope it stays that way from my point of view just down the road in Mansfield. Gusting 50mph plus here for last 2 hours, around 5mph higher than forecast for this time of the storm. Wonder why Mansfield seems to be one of 'worst' areas away from coasts and hills etc

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Lord Grogon said:

    Not quite. These are gusts in kph. So if I'm reading correctly it's 70mph gusts along the coast. 50-60mph inland. With some inland locations poss a bit higher. 

    A nasty event, but nothing ridiculously extreme in terms of windspeed. 

    What's actually more impressive is the size of the windfield as it impacts all of England and Wales. Cetainly, you'd have the whole country under at least a yellow warning. Storm Henk this ceratainly isn't... 

    GFS just out has my area, Mansfield, North Midlands, down for 75mph gusts! To me that is ridiculous for our area. Hope GFS is overdoing it.

    • Like 1

    Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:

    As far as I can see so far, the 12z suite continues the theme and strength of the winds.  I wonder if the MO are keeping their powder dry by showing western areas only so far, and then expanding areas and severity of the warnings on Saturday or so?

    Looking at the recent GFS, it seems to be that east is now worse. Quite concerned as my area, Mansfield in North Midlands / South Yorkshire, now has 75mph gusts! Certainly we havn't had gusts that strong since the 80s I think. 

    • Like 1

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Still a good 30 hrs to go at least before Eunice makes its presence felt. Expect more subtle variation from the models next 24 hrs. A shallower more southerly positioned feature is want we want - who wants 70mph plus winds no one really.

     

    Is there still a more than 1% chance of this with all the models seeming to be in so much broad agreement?

     

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:

    I have seen that the estimated gusts though in the metoffice site have been ca 20% lower than the ones that even there own chart has been showing all day and yesterday

    That has puzzled me too... is that down to human input after looking at the data perhaps?

    • Like 1

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    To show how everything changes, forecast for my area (North Notts) now says the worst wind gusts for me will be Wednesday night as part of Storm Dudley - forecast gusts upgraded to 60mph by XC Weather (GFS) for example Wednesday night, rather than on Friday, with that model now reducing max gust for me from 75mph on previous run to 48mph .

    As always with the weather I suppose we just have to wait and see. 

    • Like 1

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Tim M

    Hope this is the right place to ask this question: Why are the predicted wind gusts on the likes of Met Office and BBC websites something like 20/30mph less than XC Weather (GFS I know) for my area, North Notts (as an example) and a lot less than the charts being posted on here.

    In fact, MO and BBC at the moment are predicting higher wind gusts for Wednesday night for me and the predicted speeds for Friday have slightly reduced on those 2 sites, despite from reading on here the main models suggesting the opposite.

    I suppose my question is, how are the predicted wind speeds/gusts on websites like MO/BBC arrived at.

    Thanks for any pointers. 

     

    • Like 3

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    To my very untrained eye GFS/UKMO/ECM all now seem pretty much same in terms of areas to be worst hit. My area (North Nottinghamshire) pretty scary 40mph sustained winds Friday lunchtime with gusts approaching 80mph.

    Is there much of a chance ICON could be correct re the track, so taking the worst of the wind/storm much further south?

     

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 hours ago, The PIT said:

    nine times out of ten storms downgrade quite a bit nearer the time so may lose 10 to 15mph from the top speeds but still windy.

    Hope so! Just down the road from you The Pit and XC tonight says 39mph average wind speed for a time on Friday for me - not seen that before for a long, long, long time. Gusts up to 70mph are also more than we have had for many a year.

    Met Office website has toned the speeds a little from earlier and, of course, I know in weather terms Thursday and Friday are still a long way off.

    But I have to admit I am already concerned about the back end of this week.

     

    • Like 3

    Storm Arwen

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Tim M

    3 minutes ago, Vee89 said:

    Can I ask are you just going off met office for local predictions of wind We are in the red area and not sure exactly what to expect . 

    Based on advice from experienced members on here, I usually add 5-10mph to Met Office max gust predictions and usually focus on XC Weather (GFS) as being more reliable for short-term wind speed predictions or other weather models that members post. 

    I am a total amateur though!!

     

    Man With Beard who has just posted is a far better source of reliable advice!

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Storm Arwen

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Simon M said:

    Consider yourself lucky.  We only have a yellow warning for wind where I live with gusts expected to top out around 50mph and I'm pretty anxious, so I can't imagine how worried people in the red warning area might be.

    Snap! Though looking at 60mph in my area. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Tim M

    12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Wind update for tomorrow night. Lots of short range models now in view of the event. There's a bit of a split. One group generally sees peak gusts to 80mph or 90mph on NE coasts, 70-80 mph for coasts the west - ARPEGE showing 100mph but it frequently overdoes things. The EURO4 chart is reasonably representative of this cluster (note: these are maximum wind speeds during the run, not one particular time slot)

     

    However, another group is now keeping the worst winds off the east coast, and not so significant for the west. The GFS has followed this group today - still 60-70mph for the NE but nothing like as bad as the others:

    Screenshot_20211125-112146.thumb.png.fd12760f28e1a30d1ba98a1b0c06e8cd.png

     

    Screenshot_20211125-112236.png

    MWB... thanks for this, as a complete novice which group is/are the graphics relating to? - Thank you have seen edit of your graphics, much appreciated!

    Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

    I was out and about in Dudley this morning.  A huge black cloud . Heavy snow shower. Half an our. 2cm on the ground. Then the sun came out and thankfully it all melted away. I even commented to a lady walking her dog that I thought we had seem the last of it. Any way. All gone now. Let the spring begin. Had enough cold and dark to last a life time. Always hate November-February. Depressing horrible rubbish. 

    Can we start a Chasing Spring thread rather than Chasing Cold ... Not felt warm since mid November here. At least the days are noticeably getting longer.

    • Like 2
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