Gary L
-
Posts
64 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Gary L
-
Geordiesnow It's clearly very complicated but I am very interested in the material impact of a warming environment. Would be great to see modelling studies to confirm whether or not it makes a difference, but you'd think it absolutely would have an impact.
-
Funnily enough the temperature here is 1.5c... Before AGW would we be enjoying a 0c snow fest at 200m?!
-
Wet snow here at 200m. Looks like the snow line is above 350m! Not a great day for snow.
-
The Northern Ramper Oh dear! Definitely looking a bit tricky away from the main road I'd have thought!
-
dodge I’m in Diggle so I’ll let you know how it goes further East in Oldham!
-
Power went out here for a few minutes. It’s pretty windy at the moment as I can hear the roar outside.
-
Would be a great end, just as it seems the model output might be sniffing a new chase!
-
This is the thing I have doubts about - If it were so simple we'd have the forecast broadly nailed down weeks in advance, which simply isn't the case. My comments come from a place where there absolutely is a lack of understanding - but I've not seen much to convince me that these indicators produce much certainty in any forecast weeks in advance. It seems to me they tip the balance, but are not definitive?
-
I'm not an expert in background signals but it seems there's far too much emphasis placed on them. I'm assuming they tip the balances by a few % in the direction of some scenarios (e.g. HLB).
-
-8c just reached. Going to bed soon, I wonder if we have a shot at -10c
-
Yeh, had a nice walk this evening in the frozen snow. Amazing what a couple of cm can do if it sticks around
-
-6.2c in Diggle. We do tend to get frost hollow behaviour in the valley
-
2.1c -0.3DP Light snow with some moderate bursts. 200m in Saddleworth.
-
It would be great to see a modelling study to understand how significant the increase in temperatures would be. Low lying area maybe always would have been marginal, but I'm at 200m and it's likely to rain today at some point!
-
It's quite sad that this likely wouldn't be so marginal pre global warming. Reduced sea ice, Arctic amplification, increased SSTs all seem likely to put 1-2c on this event?
-
Brilliant. Rare City Centre snow! Love it!
-
It's later on on Tuesday N Lancs area where the streamer seems to set up - accumulation charts then show sig. accumulation over high ground. Yes I believe so! Not 100% sure but I'd imagine at this range they'll be using the high res model.
-
The UKV 15z does set up a streamer tomorrow but it's too warm for most places < 200m I would think. I'm at 200m and it looks marginal at least for a time. It does however signal 10-20cm accumulations on higher parts around here, which will be nice to see.
-
Looking good Joe! I haven't lived in Saddleworth for a long time but in my 7 years here I've worked out we need more of WNW to hit Saddleworth's sweet spot! Keeping a close eye on it but looks like we're in with a good chance. Manchester (particularly South) often does very well in these situations - especially if they get hit overnight/early morning!
-
Flicking through the GFS ENS at 162 they look excellent on the whole. Some milder solutions but the disagreement in the evolution is quite clear with vastly different modelling of the GH high.
-
Certainly looks like turning colder, but yesterday and today the main thing seems to be the dominant high pressure very close to the UK. the ENS both GFS and ECMWF have mean pressure above or around 1020mb right the way through. My money at the moment is cold, with high pressure close to or over the UK.
-
Northwest Weather Discussion
Gary L replied to damianslaw's topic in Northwest Community Group's Northwest Weather Discussion
0.5c here in Diggle @200m and we have wet snow that’s settling a little. We’re close to the Pennines ridge here so might get a bit more overnight. -
Northwest Weather Discussion
Gary L replied to damianslaw's topic in Northwest Community Group's Northwest Weather Discussion
Went into Manchester to see some friends before, there was some flakes falling but it's all very wet in the city! Just got back to Saddleworth. about 1c at 200m and a heavy dusting of wet snow. Looks like there might be some more on the way -
Northwest Weather Discussion
Gary L replied to damianslaw's topic in Northwest Community Group's Northwest Weather Discussion
Temperatures and dew points look a bit marginal to me. Different event >300m.
