Waterspout

Just to the South/West of me from Swinton some poor souls around Eccles have been in those purple/white echoes for about 30 minutes now. Some friends said they have a lot of flooding there, what a difference a mile makes.

Just my explanation as I work with GM charts. Temperature is in kelvin so the formula is C = K - 273.15 when producing a chart. If a frame is faulty or missing, which does happen, then the K grid can get filled with -1s or 0’s , which if you don’t account for will give you lots of -273c conversions! I usually deal with this by carrying across the last good frame, which at least prevents a ridiculous looking graph!

Moderate Snow here in Pendlebury!

Just a comment on UKMET. Link here: Numerical weather prediction models WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The Unified Model is run operationally in a number of configurations for weather forecasting at the Met Office. 6 Days they describe as Short to Medium range. So it goes 1 perhaps. 2 days into what I would understand as medium, hence it’s understandable why some posters don’t believe it’s geared up to be accurate beyond T96 to 120. It is just the way it was designed I guess! Hence why lots of countries invested in the ECMWF, which is a true > Medium range model.

Snapped this in the few minutes between showers as Sun went down circa 18:50 towards Manchester from O’th Heights.

This was meant to be tomorrow the 3rd, but the upgrade of the IT infrastructure, which is also why some connectivity issues have happened in recent weeks, is behind schedule. It needs to handle twice the Data for v16. This has now moved to “March 2021”. It’s unfortunate as from tomorrow we wouldn’t have had to look at the current version anymore! It would have been consigned to the dustbin, I guess like the 06z Op! As it stand now we have at least another month of v15!

Snowing now in Pendlebury, Salford. Covering cars and grass quite quickly.

You might find this useful for some background of the testing since Autumn 2018! It’s also full of fascinating technical info! https://ufscommunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/UFS_Webnair_GFSv16_20201022_FanglinYang.pdf

Due to become the Operational February 3rd.

The v16 code was actually signed off and approved back in May 2020 by the Ops Director. This Parallel running October to the end of this month is purely “IT” related. The actual verification improvements were assessed by EMC based on the previous year’s initialisation data to evaluate performance compared to v15. They won’t pull the code on a project that started back in 2019, on those Stats you published for the 3 week period you illustrated. This is the new and improved code, even if it’s an overall 1% increase, it’s still improved after extensive testing on long term previous starting data spanning a longer period than those weeks you highlighted.

It was thought to be a 1-50 year event, at the least, so later in the Century perhaps.......! 10 years is too soon. But another one could happen in the next 80 years according to the law of averages! Based on 2 per Century?

My Cameras picked this up too! Started about 5ish. You’d swear it was snowing!

Think the Radar watching was the most thrilling part of this event! Got a brief covering from the light stuff, now rain here in Pendlebury, not even our increased elevation of 80m here in one of the higher parts of Salford could help out! Bet that was about half a degree the wrong side of marginal! Next please!

Unexpected showers formed the last hour, just NW of Manchester moving SE! Perhaps a flake here shortly!

I really enjoy reading your posts Frosty, and rarely post in here, but let's not get too carried away with hyperbole regarding Autumn Hot spells. A brilliant article by Mr Eden Sums it up, and we are not even Late September yet...... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15127159