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MurcieBoy

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MurcieBoy last won the day on January 21 2011

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  1. News of this today caught my eye. I remember when I posted up my forecasts on here a few years back, my pc cost me just a few hundred quid! My 2p's worth to today's news would be: - this should be great for short term forecasting, but to forecast long term accurately (ie: months and years ahead), one really needs to step back and understand what are the true underlying causes of our weather - To have sensors around the planet, linked to super computers tracking and modelling weather movement is not "true forecasting" - To truly forecast is to predict something before the "embryo", so to speak, has formed; ie: to accurately predict months and years ahead. As long as we think this cannot be done, we shall not avail ourselves to the opportunity of learning how it could be done.....
  2. Really hope this takes off; well done to those who make it happen!
  3. Yes, many thanks from me too Roger for all your efforts. My forecast was made using my usual method and variances were expected. As stated before, I shall be looking at the variances from these trials to see what other information I need to take into account to formulate the definitive DNA for a particular day.
  4. My effort was based on 00:00hrs 20 March 2011 and here are the comparision charts showing the variances:
  5. You are correct, the energy is there. Its just a question of whether it manifests itself in the part of the world covered by the forecast map on 20 March 2011. The events around the world, in all aspects of Nature, over the last two and a half months suggest this will be an "extreme" kind of year.
  6. Hi RJS, its fascinating again seeing the flip flop of the GFS and the individual movements of the correlations. Re my forecast, not that it may make much of a difference, but I would just like to say it was based on 00:00hrs charts (rather than 12:00hrs). Re suggestion for another challenge: each year I host a BBQ and big Fun Day for the kids (and adults) in the summer in my business and invariably it rains (sometimes with a lot of wind too!) or it is too cold for a "summer day out" in a T shirt and shorts. This year, I have decided to set the date now (in March) and undertook my research into which week will be the hottest for this summer with the likelihood of sunshine (and no rain!). I have found the week and have set the date for my guests! It will definitely (edit: or should I say, according to my calculations) be excellent BBQ weather - perhaps the hottest in recent years! If you fancy a challenge (open to all, as per 20 March challenge) for guessing the hottest day/week in London (so as we can be quite specific) this summer and what the likely temperature will be, I would be up for that. Perhaps folk could submit predictions by 31 March 2011?
  7. The clips and web headlines were there to highlight what happened; it was necessary to objectively show what happened in an Appraisal video covering 7 days of forecasting. The "10 minutes of various clips" therefore equally verified objectively the "Spectacular failures" and any positive verifications.
  8. Well, I think we just have to agree to differ re the last two posts. ------------- The video was only that length as it was vital to get across what actually happened throughout that five day period. Without such an understanding, any appraisal would have been flawed. When the original forecast came out the first reasoned questions related to the strength of the winds; ie: whether there would be a Jet Stream with such ferocity. In deciding how to create the video, I felt it was vital to address this issue. Leaving aside that reasoning, the BBC weather forecasters made sure from their comments, the strong "over 200mph" Jet Stream would be the key feature of any appraisal video. The Appraisal video by definition needed to refer to the original forecast for comparison. When things were wrong they were described as "Spectacular Failures"; when there were positive verifications they were described blandly as such. However, there was no "backslapping"; in fact, I did not even give a verdict on the forecast. ------------- Re the ridicule point, I could be wrong, but such comments only serve to put off newcomers from coming forward with new ideas (which is what this industry of LRF needs IMO, speaking as an outsider). If one honestly looks at this industry and takes away all the advances in technology (computers, computer software, satellites, radar, telecomminications, the Internet), how far has it really moved forward in the last 150 years or so? Are we much closer in really understanding what drives the weather? Even with this technology, as a layman, as far as I can see, the LRF industry in making a forecast relies upon a weather system to start, then sophisticated state of the art sensors around the Earth and in Space track it, the models use that information and generate LRF charts that are way off and very changeable to begin with, but close in on the actual from around 3-7 days of the target day. As one respected poster on here once said: “if we built bridges and airplanes the way we make weather forecasts, a lot of people would refuse to get on a plane or drive a carâ€. My comments about ridiculing (throughout this thread and on another Forum) are therefore all about the negative impact it may have in tackling the real issues facing this industry.
  9. That is why the video says "Spectacular Failure"; the Appraisal video acknowledges the forecast was wrong ----------------- The video only seeks to give the facts; as reported by the Met Office, BBC, NOAA (GFS) and Satellite images (Naval Research Laboratory). ----------------- Then please objectively scrutinise the whole text in the Forecast and Appraisal videos ----------------- No, sorry, it was ridiculing and that is not acceptable under the terms of this Forum. ----------------- I only object to the principle that those that genuinely try to make some headway in the subject of Long Term Weather Forecasting are ridiculed for no reason other than because they step out of line from the norm.
  10. Of course I do, I am the first to admit it! If you read the text in the Appraisal video it states: I don't know if I could have put it more candidly or bluntly that it was wrong!
  11. I am reluctantly thinking that whatever I did Coast, you would criticise and try to ridicule. If you are able to be objective/balanced, perhaps you should read all the text on the videos more closely; rather than being so selective, so as to promote a negative angle with a view of trying to mock another human being.
  12. Thanks, took a wee while to gather the info and to put the thing together. The Satellite Images sequence alone took ages to download (there were almost 500 of them!). Each to their own as to how to evaluate; yes, always best to have an objective evaluation. For me, if there were no really strong winds/very strong Jet Stream in the target area and in the time specified that would have been the biggest failure.
  13. Thanks. Been busy with other work for the last few weeks. Did take a squint from my rough notes from last summer, I have something windy/stormy in the UK for August and November this year. Will look at these more closely (and whether there is more extreme weather in the UK for the rest of the winter) when I have a bit more time. Got a couple of extreme weather events in the US that I might look into further and publish some forecasts. At the moment, I am trying to reflect a wee bit on the Feb 2011 storm forecast. I think from one perspective it may be pointless churning out more forecasts without squeezing out what I can learn from this one.
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