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Everything posted by Sun dog
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Woken at 4am by torrential rain hammering the window. 7am spotted a break in the clouds and managed to get out with the owner just as the first rays of sunlight lit up the local woodland and it exploded into life. Amazing walk - towering cloudscapes, azure blue skies, crystal clear air and the heady scent of limes just coming into leaf. 45 minutes later and one of the darkest clouds I've ever seen appeared on the horizon. Made it back just as the downpour arrived.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Sun dog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Frigid Great to see below average rainfall. Temperature probably swayed by cooler nights. In the sun should feel pleasant (glass half full) -
8.5C and spitting with light rain. Nice 4 mile walk first thing - despite the rain. Amazing how the trees and hedges have greened up in the past couple of weeks. Large number of Blackcaps appear to have arrived overnight joining a couple from last week. Normally the majority tend to move on as the arrival of Spring continues to spread. Great to see a lone Sand Martin - only takes a couple of days of sunshine to bring the midges out.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Sun dog replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking on the bright side at least the SST anomaly is dropping. Hopefully a bit less moisture heading in our direction. -
Surprisingly good start to the day. Blue skies and a few scattered clouds.Wind has eased off and in the more sheltered spots the warmth of the sun is really pleasant. Seemed to have had quite a few Springs recently that have been dominated by Greenland highs or other HLB that suddenly flip into summer. Perhaps this will be another.
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Felt like the first day of Spring. 8C, reasonably sunny and a slight breeze from the SE. Great walking conditions and really good to see so many people enjoying a breath of fresh along the Mersey valley. Even spotted a weasel and had a go at the RSPB's garden birdwatch. Quite a few Snowdrops out and even a few of the weird red flowers on the Hazel. After the deluge of last summer, autumn and early winter as long as it stays dry I can live with a lack of snow. I'm sure HLB will occur in late Feb and give us a few weeks of cool north-westerlys with a bit of snow on the hills and possibly the odd overnight surprise. The chances of any prolonged cold seems remote.
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8.30am - out with the dog and a surprisingly bright start to the day. Even felt almost warm at a mighty 8C when the sun came out. Clouded over a bit more since and a very slight breeze is beginning to pick up. Was hoping to get some more concrete around a fencepost that worked loose before Christmas but probably missed my chance - back to the steel wire guy lines.
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Surprising our region has escaped extensive flooding. The amount of rain seems comparable with last Feb and with the ground saturated I think we've been very fortunate. It'd be interesting to know what's caused the deluge we've had over the past 6 months. We do seem to be in a cycle of weather patterns becoming stuck. Certainly frustrating when we're in a wet one! Maybe I'm just getting old however I recall that for many years our dominant weather pattern was a westerly regime of troughs and ridges complete with crystal clear returning polar maritime air and the occasional high pressure. Since 2010 there does seem to have been a fundamental shift and the only reason I can think of is climate change.
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Happy with both. Still a bit more to go to reach 1947's 1060mb Arctic High
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Just a quick reminder "The Big Snow of '47" Channel 5 @9pm tonight should be worth a watch. Just been speaking to my parents about it. They're both in their mid 80's and can still remember walking to junior school through narrow paths cut into the banks of snow unable to see over the top of the drifts. With them both living in central Manchester - Crumpsall & Harpurhey, difficult to imagine what it must have been like. In comparison, their recollection of the winter of 62/63 is nowhere near as severe. Can't help wondering if such an event is even possible nowadays. Although winters overall are warmer the frequency of 1 in 100 year events does seem to be increasing. Ultimately a freak event is a freak event - possibly the odds of a repeat haven't significantly changed?
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A few from 5th January 2010. Shared album - Ian Worsley - Google Photos PHOTOS.APP.GOO.GL An interesting drive to work through south Manchester. Gave up with the parkway and ended up going through Stretford and Trafford Park before finding a jack-knifed HGV blocking Centenary Bridge. Yet another diversion up to Salford Quays and past a snowy Old Trafford. Never occurred to me that it was a 1:20 year event. Interesting to see what caused the snowfall. The chances of a repeat in January 2024 is looking slim
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Weird and sadly true. I'm sure there's a slight Foehn effect that kicks in when we have low pressure moving up from the south. A combination of the Pennines and Snowdonia kills our chances of a good dumping almost every time. Even when the precipitation does makes it over the hills it changes to rain, sleet and if we're really lucky - wet snow.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Sun dog replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
With so much heat bottled up to the south there doesn't appear to be anything to prevent a repeat of the existing pattern. Despite NOAA's forecast no sign of any ex TS injecting energy into a quiet Atlantic. Hard to see anything other than a repeat with plumes being increasingly restricted to southern areas and more northern areas the occasional deluge.