kmanmx

Tomorrow looks interesting, MetO has me down for quite a lot of heavy snow. And plenty of showers coming through the midlands according to NMM. However it has them down as a mixture of snow and sleet, and on the past few snow events i've found it to be quite accurate with regards to what will fall as rain, sleet, snow etc. So it looks very marginal again, temps up to 3c, 850's around -4c/5c later on, dew points above freezing. So this one is going to go right down to nowcasting, as all marginal events do. Luckily for me I have the day of work tomorrow so it should be fun

You know I bet if I guessed on three weather parameters for 9 days time, I would be correct just as often as the models are. I'll go for the following conditions in the midlands at 9pm in 9 days. I havn't looked at the model output this far out, nor can I really remember it much beyond 2 or 3 days, so I promise it's a guess! -5c 850 temps 1c 2m temps Dry I'll return to this post in 10 days and compare *puts reminder on phone*.

So I totally understand the Model thread is for discussing model output and all that stuff. BUT: When people get all excited about charts they are posting 7+ days away I kind of think they are crazy. I mean we don't really fully understand whats going to happen in 24 hours most of the time. I guess it's always fun to discuss what could happen though. But I do laugh a little when everyone sulks when the next model run throws it out the window

Looking at Sunday it does look nice for midlands. Too far away to get excited about though.

I dunno I think it varies quite a lot. This footage looks more than 4 inches. Hard to tell due to drifting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WV2jJKHVw0&feature=youtu.be I would have to love to have seen what the MetO would have predicted.

It was more like 10 to 14 inches in most places. Some places have still got over 20 inches. DC only got about an inch though. Bank bank bank ! The dark green spot is right near Leicester

NMM is similar. They look quite sparse though. Definitely be a case of some getting a decent shower of snow and others getting nothing I think.

Can see 06z normal gfs but 0.25deg version is still 00z.

I must be doing it wrong because it still says 0Z to me (never really used meteociel before).

Im confused because the 06z is barely out yet on Netweather Extra / Weatheronline. Or is it out on Meteociel ?

Nope - waiting for full 06z

I'm used to it now so I just laugh at it. I've looked at the GFS PPN charts for the next 3 or 4 days. There is rain/snow to the west, east, south, north.. basically everywhere surrounding the midlands. It's like there is a giant midlands wide PPN shield pushing everything around us Either that or GFS resolution is too low to resolve the showers that hit us. I'm clutching at straws here..

Hehe, this looks like an accurate midlands snow chart if I ever saw one.

This just makes me feel incredibly jealous It looks so epic.

Hmm yes does look good. -10c uppers on Monday ! obviously way to far off to consider it accurate, but it would be nice thats for sure.

You know what they say about get the cold and the snow will come...

I just meant that last time the track of the system seemed to be hard to nail down. The models seem to be more consistent with this setup.

True but it does look to be more predictable than the last event.

Nice to see warnings extended further south even if they don't reach most of us. Could atleast get some snow showers, even if it's not worth giving a warning about. The MetO not-a-forecast houry forecast has me down for some light and heavy snow come the early hours of Thursday, so there is still hope of seeing something.

While this event does look less marginal there doesn't seem to be much in the way of significant PPN. At least no large bands, there are none modelled *yet* anyway. Perhaps some will crop up closer to the time (hopefully). I guess it will be a very localised event where some do really well off showers while others see nothing. Still a lot to play for though, will be looking at the model runs every day thats for sure.

Come on Andy get with it, none of us are going to be here by Friday. As Bigsnow said, we're going to be in Japan I don't care if it's 15c and 250mm of rain in Leicester UKMO seem to have been pretty accurate with their forecasts compared to what the GFS was coming out with lately. So perhaps the UKMO setup is more likely to be correct. Though I understand what the UKMO and GFS models are outputting is different to how accurate the MetO forecasts have been (though one would assume they base most of their forecasts off UKMO / UKV). Also, i'm probably imagining it, but I think Ian F said the cold after next weekend will be more significant than Thurs/Fri

Hehe, lets do it. Check out this vid of snow in Sapporo

*Googles Sapporo, Japan* Finds this: "Summers are generally warm but not humid, and winters are cold and very snowy. With an average snowfall of 5.96 m (19 ft 7 in)," Sweet Jesus! and so today I learnt that I am emigrating to Sapporo

Honestly I would love to go to NY just to see the snow.

Always good to see upgrades !. Just Imagine if every run from now till thurs/fri was n upgrade, oh the fun that would be had.