Candice

You really don't give up do you, thundery rain was mentioned by all forecasters yesterday.

I guess the change Weds into Thurs is a direct result of hurricane Ophelia, will be interesting to see what happens after that.

Now pulling away, strongest winds on southern and western flanks, therefore worse on east coast

Sounds about right, just under 50mph gusts

Simple really, the MCS didn't want a holiday in the UK

aurora at Kp8 - is over n midlands

About to be hit, temperature starting to plummet, gone very dark, can hear distant thunder.

Easy - ridging is still too strong, cap won't go

Just beaten our record for this year, now 27.8, previous high 27.2 in April.

Bet you wish you were back at UEA for tomorrow, still looking surprisingly good

Had quite a few in April but noticeably absent now. Have had hundreds of bees also until today, there is a distinct lack of any sort of bee around today.

Loads of bumblebees here, blackbirds now singing, sparrows collecting nesting material, blackthorn in full blossom - god I love Spring!

Bad Moon Rising in Norfolk tonight

Err, you forgot to say that Piers Corbyn runs it!

In no way could this be called anything other than a spectacular failure. If it had been a general forecast then MB may have got more kudos, but to give such detail he was heading for a fall immediately. There was no Great North Sea Storm which MB prophesised as being far worse than the 1953 floods. There was no flooding in the low countries, no loss of life in Hamburg or anywhere else for that matter. Looking at the video it would seem to be a dig at the GFS, MET et al for NOT forecasting it rather than an honest appraisal of his own forecast. Yes, sure it was windy, particularly in Scotland and parts of Wales but that's not too unusual for February. Here right on the east coast the highest gust we had over the whole period was 61mph, again not the most unusual weather. I started off by thinking that MB might be on to something and would be willing to discuss his methodology. I kept an open mind until the point at which he lied on the forum and said I had sent him offensive PMs - which I categorically deny. I had a discussion via PM with him about the fourth dimension and what it meant to him. His replies were "interesting". Sadly, MB also cannot take any form of criticism. If you publish wild headlines about Great North Sea Storms then you have to be able to take constructive criticism and engage in debate (unless your name is Piers Corbyn! :lol: ). What could have been an interesting debate ended up degenerating because of MB's stance - such a pity! To "have a go" at COAST is appalling, his posts were really useful and on many occasions he was a calming influence on the thread. He put a hell of a lot of work into trying to help MB Overuse of the word "ridicule" here I think

My daffodils are already out, god knows why in this gloom, can we have some sunshine please!

Had this happen to me intermittently over thepast few weeks - soon seems to clear tho

Strangely around here we are having gusts in the 45-59 range but they are coming quite far apart. Has it peaked yet in my part of the world

Erm, excuse me but you mentioned looking for data to match the 1953 storm on the pistonheads forum last year so you were actively looking for it - now who's being just a little bit naughty? "Re the floods of 1953 (30 Jan-1 Feb), I shall try and look at the DNA for that period of time and see when it will repeat if in the near future. It would be interesting to know... Nov 2010 http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&t=468933&d=11269.29108&nmt

I guess if it does "come to pass" then the Big Storm will be the ONLY topic -

Just for fun, will post these every day if I remember - Tuesday 1st Feb from GFS Which "weather geek" are you talking about - Murcie Boy has only made three forecasts so far, this is the third

Food for thought? (Found this whilst browsing around alternative weather forecasting methodology) In 1686, Dr. J. Goad’s Astro-Meteorologica, based on 39 years of his own astro-weather observations and correlations, was published in London. Until the end of the 19th Century this text was the leading authority on the subject. It includes a transcript of astronomer Johannes Kepler’s diary of astro-weather observations from June 28, 1617 to August 9, 1629. Here Kepler expounded some of his theories relating planetary phenomena to atmospheric changes. It is a matter of historical record that he attained recognition for his remarkably accurate long-range weather forecasting long before advancing his laws of planetary motion. Kepler’s “Mysterium Cosmographicum†is a fully documented record of his work from 1602 to 1629. Critically tested astro-weather forecasts during the last century, ventured for various parts of the world more than a year in advance, support and confirm Kepler’s theories. He discovered that additional magnetic angles of 30, 45, 135 and 150 degrees between celestial bodies synchronized perfectly with atmospheric reactions.

Very well said, I see that MB wants to write a book (makes a lot of money!), if there is anything in his fourth dimensional theories but like you I can't understand why he can't at least enter into reasoned debate with us. After all both Roger and Fred have shared their methodology with us and have therefore gained certainly my respect and that of many others on this forum with their reasoned and well thought out methods. Just one thought I had though. If weather was able to be forecasted every day on every spot on the planet for the next 100 years just think of the impact that would have on everyday life. We'd all want the same 2 weeks off work, same wedding days etc etc and it would certainly (for me anyway) rather take the edge of things if I knew that on the 24th July 2021 it would be hot and sunny! There'd be nothing left to look forward to and certainly no model watching or weather forums.

Somehow I doubt that, I think his fourth dimension is very likely to be that which I referred to as hypothetical but I guess until he answers with an explanation we're clutching at straws. I'd really like to see him giving us a clearer steer on where he's coming from with this "fourth dimension". How about it MURCIEBOY - RJS is happy to share his methodology, can you share yours? Superb post Roger, really helpful. Perhaps I could second your quote outlined above

Hi MB - I notice you"ve used the term "the fourth dimension" quite a lot in your posts. Would you mind telling us what you personally consider to be the fourth dimension? Are you referring to the view of space-time, adding a dimension of time to the universe (Euclidian Space) or are you referring to a hypothetical fourth spatial dimension, added on to our normal three dimensions. This fourth spatial dimension being the higher plane very few human beings manage to attain?