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Candice

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Everything posted by Candice

  1. and more to the point - will someone remember to switch the oven on?
  2. Possibly the best April fool article I've seen today.
  3. Sat24 at 0800hrs, cloud beginning to clear here on the Wash, am quietly optimistic of seeing something at the peak.
  4. And I'm still waiting. Bone dry here with a temp of 2.3c and DP of 0. Now snowless since 11th March 2013. Overflying seagulls? Lol
  5. To be honest, it's hardly overdue. Here on the Norfolk coast we had a really bad surge on the 5th December 2013, the effects of which are still apparent. Many properties were lost, particularly at Hemsby.
  6. Certainly will need to today if my forecast from Netweather is right lol
  7. Seems to have been happening 'on and off' for the past few days - good old Met
  8. Thoughts from the Chief Forecaster at SkyWarn UK Typically the month for the strongest cells, with severity depending largely on the jetstream pattern, this July isn't going to disappoint. Overnight Thurs into Fri the leading edge of the plume overspreads the majority of the UK, with widespread destabilisation up the Wrn side of the mainland through to NI and Wrn Scotland in the morning. This EML will heavily cap the lowest layers, but despite very high bases the high CAPE values and dry air could allow for some decent hail sizes, copious sferics and torrential rain. Hail less certain than precip risk, and precip risk dependent on storm motion which for the time being looks swift enough that we shouldn't see a flooding risk from this portion of the synoptic scenario. Thereafter, from around 13z Fri onwards, a build up of high SBCAPE occurs across the mainland as the EML fosters higher temps in what is a very moist column. Easily beating 2000J/Kg, though higher than that is questionable given cloud cover. Models aren't on agreement for a precip signal (surprise!), with the HIRLAM not seeing anything through Fri, Meteociel's WRF opening up the Mids, etc. The environment will be in place for a very severe risk though, with large hail and very heavy precip cores the main risks for any updrafts regardless of how long they last. Shear is meagre at first but gets better through the weekend, and it should be noted that even if spot locations don't appear to have good shear there will be sufficient mass ascent being north of the jet nose and mid-upper level shear for slight tilting of updrafts in what is a high instability environment. Organisation in the lowest 3km will depend largely upon surface shortwaves for focussing of instability and veering winds up the column, and this will likely drive the Warning detail. One thing to note, for this plume we shouldn't see the kind of upper level winds that would usually smear rising parcels into a high grey haze. Unless it does that over central France and advects northward.
  9. Severe weather watch #25 issued at 0800am today for heavy rain on a stalling front http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html
  10. Severe weather watch #25 issued at 0800am today for heavy rain on a stalling front http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html
  11. SkywarnUK have issued a severe thunderstorm watch for today http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html
  12. SkyWarn UK Severe Thunderstorm Watch 22 now issued http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html
  13. Pretty wet in Norfolk http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/photos_heavy_rain_causes_flooding_in_norfolk_1_3616646
  14. Days 3 and 4 reports and pictures from Colorado and New Mexico http://membership853.wordpress.com/2014/05/
  15. Day 2 reports from Western Kansas http://membership853.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/day-two/
  16. . TBH That stuff over France appears to be going to Belgium
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