feb1991blizzard

It has the light snow symbol from 11am sunday right up until midnight, on the graphic it has you right in the middle of a band of snow, Also showers early tomorrow right near Cambridge.

What area of Oldham?, some areas are really hilly plus areas right in the pennines still have Oldham addresses, this is because the Metropolitan Borough of Oldham covers a wider area than just the town itself, some areas are near to 1000ft and can have really big drifts.

Yes I mentioned it on last page - we can dream!!!!

Fairly optimistic of something though tomorrow.

LOL - BBC has heavy snow overnight fri - lunch time sat and some sort of snow most of the time up until am sunda. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ol3 And I will walk up the high street stark naked.....

I was in midlands then and got a good 6 inch fall.

Agree with the stall bit, surely a powerhouse like feb 1991 would deliver for you, even feb 09 when I was in Salford was only 6 miles short and im reliably told it delivered big style here.

I could stomach missing out on that (just about) as long as it ultimately ended up far enough East ultimately but not too far south so it propped the block up and gave us a long draw long drawn out Easterly from Russia!!!!

I doubt it will be much further East than where its modelled now to be honest, it might be further West.

A really rough guess but about 2c an hour ago.

That's a stonker for me, if there is no melt, I could have about 6cm by the end of it.

Marginal for the showers over the next couple of days, anything next week is really too early to tell because we don't know whether the front will even make it yet so cant really speculate how much milder air it brings.

I have sort of. The one caveat though is that I have never ever checked on the reliability of GEFS mean PPN charts and looking at the graphics the area of PPN looks overdone to me.

I will try to find some better news from the Ensemble suites.

Sorry to bring even more bad news but the JMA 18z out to 84hrs and its further West again.

Unfortunately though, the 120 fax doesn't support it.

A better GFS 18z which ties in with Helen Willets forecast, I don't know how up to date data she was using so I would reserve judgement on that forecast for time being, also though the met office map graphic shows a slight NE ward correction again, also - don't be concerned that the medium range prognosis has been compromised for a quick snow to rain event - it wouldnt, you need the low to sink but you need it to dig south East rather than end up just to the south, you can see on the 18z that a tiny correction has now meant the Easterly lasting far longer than on the 12z, if the low just barrelled through from West to East only clipping Northern UK as it would in a mobile set up then it would be the end but there is no chance of this happening, ideally we would want the low to dive SE but then Stall over France but elongate towards the Low countries and the Icelandic High to link up with the Russian high with the really severe uppers coming around the back of the high with the surface isobars tracing all the way to Eastern Russia / Siberia, that isn't going to happen but the 18z is still far better than the 12z.

I don't wish to be a doom monger but from my past experience of these situations you could have your heart broken again, you might get something before then though from heavy showers.

The only problem for you now is the GFS has had a massive SW correction one one run, I get virtually now snow (referring to next weeks event only), your still ok but it only needs another correction and you will be out of the firing line as well.

I actually think the best placed for Tuesdays snow are places in the West and South of the region, Liverpool, Runcorn, Altringham.

We want the GFS 0z to verify, we might struggle to get much precipitation if the ECM 0z verifies, particularly the far North and East of the region.

Agreed but what I am saying is if I could choose my synoptical set up, that's what it would be, fronts are fine provided they stall in the right place, the bar has been raised back to mid 80s standard up until the dyer winter last year, 1998 - 2009 then yes, an inch of wet slushy snow would suffice but not now, I am after the big one now - risk to reward ratio, its like a fisherman going out with a bag full of sweetcorn and rather than have a net full of Roach and Gudgeon, wanting one big Carp a good few pound!

But if you get a potent Easterly with a big scandi block and a long draw right from Siberia, you get multiple chances of snow though, I don't like these slush fests from NW erlies, even N'lys still need a wave feature or only coastal areas benefit as you get the wishbone effect.

In Crewe!!!!!!

I was pessimistic lately as it looked like the strat warming wouldnt deliver but if we can just scrape this easterly in and keep niggling away at the Vortex all the way through the atmosphere we might be alright, the good thing IF and its a big IF but if we could completely destroy the vortex by February, it might never be able to recover thus we could be in for another 2013 where we got beltings even in late March.