feb1991blizzard
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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
feb1991blizzard replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
7.8c and 81mm please -
This charade just illustrates how garbage the modelling has been this winter, Ali1977 you're quite right there's decent ens support for a decent dumping at day 5 as far south as the south midlands, however every respected forecasting organisation says a N Pennines affair at best, probably Scotland and 7-11 max temps.
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Pinhead27 Its the stratospheric 10mb height chart, whilst it isn't a far and wide split its the EPS mean at 360 hours so you wouldn't expect that, that does look indicative of a big westerly zonal wind drop off in a few weeks time, possibly a big & sustained reversal to Easterlies, though that is yet to be decided, if so it still has to propagate the boundary layer into the troposphere (also to be confirmed), if both of those occurred, it *COULD* lead to a prolonged spell of well below average temperatures.