fat chad

Nick F I hardly ever post on here. In that vein, I hope the more experienced don't shoot me down.. My lack of posting is not due to my lack of enthusiasm, but due to lack of time to really research to the level of competence that many have on here, due to family and work commitments. Anyhow. While I am surprised to read this post, I do understand the frustration. Especially as the there has been no raging vortex this year. It's possibly been the best chance to get a good result from the pack of cards we've been dealt, since 2009/10. I may be wrong, but hey ho. Personally, I think all opinions and theories may all have a place. We've gone from a near certain forthcoming ice age in the late 60's/early 70's to runaway global warming in 2020's. Maybe the point I'm going the long way about in saying, is that there are many drivers and reasons for the weather we have on our island. I've learnt that they are less clear cut than on the continent which has a land mass without water heating up the air around it. Maybe give those who take a punt and have the guts to share their thoughts, a big huge break, as some of the toys thrown out the pram after the mid January let down, was (To politely put) pathetic!! Going in the local threads,some of the personal challenges towards comments and forecasting on here, to read, were really annoying. Do we want members to get involved and put their new knowledge to the test? Or is this a W@#lly waving contest where we all try and beat eachother down? I love visiting this forum and have done so on very regular basis since becoming a member. I enjoy it here, all seasons. There does need some sock pulling up, and from all members. Just my opinion. One from someone who hasn't got the knowledge to post his forecast, but someone who respects anyone who cares, or dares to do so. Thank you for such a wonderful place to share my interest.

Depending on location remember my dear boy.

@Catacol..... A very sobering read. Thank you for your informative time and effort. I would personally be happy with a break from all the wind and rain. But the weather is, what the weather is. If we cannot get something wintery, then I would rather a dry high. Usable weather for those working outdoors. But such is life..

Would that not allow the low to sink south and then bring on an easterly flow?

Hello Steve. Thanks for posting. Just a quick question from me. What are the 850s temps for that timeframe please? I only ask as the best falls in recent history barring 2010, for my area (Portsmouth) have come from a windflow coming off of a frigid continent. And would the continent have cooled enough in time in your opinion?

There is some really learned folk in here... You just have to filter though the hype.... If you hang around often enough, you will see who they are.

It's what makes this forum so great. If you can detach yourself from the dramatics and toy trowing when it usually doesn't go to plan, then you can enjoy an educated thread...

Thanks Nick.. Your ramblings on the most part are informative, so thank you. I find it truly fascinating how the weather around the other side of the globe can effect out small part of it.

Hello Nick, would the timing of the MJO moving into phase 7 effect the end result of the forecast stratospheric warming event that Steve highlighted. For example, entering phase 7 a day before or a day or two after the ssw? Cheers in advance.

Hello Luke. My (very) limited knowledge on sudden stratospheric warmings (ssw), is that it turns our mean westerly wind direction to a (negative) easterly wind direction. It makes cold weather more likely, but in no way is it a guarantee for cold over the British Isle's. Let alone a signal for snow. My understanding is that most of our notable wintery spells in the past have happened a couple of weeks after the warming commences. Something to maybe watch, but not to get excited about..... Yet.

Some good and clear posts this morning. To all those who have contributed to this forum with good explanation's of what they mean, Thank you.

Patience fella.... It's the end of November...

Hello Malcolm and welcome to the forum. My basic grasp of how ex hurricanes effect the weather in the Atlantic is that they pump up warm air pole wards (WAA). It's best for cold lovers, the WAA going up towards Greenland. Other members who are far far more knowledgeable than myself and they will correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that ex hurricanes and tropical storms hitch a ride on the jet stream and the storm direction and eventual landfall depends on where the jet stream is. Not actually effecting the jet stream itself. Well that's my take on thing's... Be nice to me gang if I am wrong...

Could this calm August/ September weather be anything to do with the very low sunspot count?? I know some say it has fog all to do with things, but considering it controls all of our climate, could it affect the way that the jet stream kicks in our direction??? Don't have a go.... Genuine question.. Thanks.

I for one am now hoping for nice warm and pleasant sunny days from now until autumn... None the less, the effort and time you have recently put into your posts truly make my visits to this great forum well worth the time. Great post fella..

As we are about to enter spring, I couldn't care less about cold unless the kids can make snowmen, which is rather unlikely this time of year in my location... Looking forward to our first taste of spring as winter never really started down my way... Even though there were a few frosts inland...... Stuff the cold, I want summer..

Given that this storm is 5 days away, what are the chances of this storm actually hitting the uk or otherwise hitting France instead.. ?

Well stay the voice of reason and get back into the woodshed with your red crayons and start posting in the mod thread.... Some folk just cant help but get carried in away in there, but lets face it... As much as we love our hobby here, it is only the weather after all.... Be lucky fella..

How comes you ain't in the model thread anymore knocker?

Just been on the model thread and it's laughable how everyone is throwing their toy's out of the pram over this morning's run's....... Remember we have no control over the weather.... I'd take a sunny high over a dank and miserable low any day... Of course it could be a cloudy high, but at least it wouldn't amount to more than the odd drizzle.... Football with the kid's tonight and Sunday.... The last thing we want is rain for that!!!

Not often that I venture on here... But I must admit that this has been an education. Would be interesting to see the effects of the vortex shifted to Siberia on the U.K. weather. I think I shall pay more attention to this in the future, instead of just the model output discussion. Cheers chaps...

True polar lows are extremely rare..so I have been told on here.

would be great for my boy to see some snow that settled.... The last time he saw snow, it was about half an inch and started to melt my mid morning... My daughter on the other hand still remembers the snow from 2010... Happy days..

Quote "A cold spell in 2 weeks is just about nailed on imo." I don't think that anything can be nailed on 2 weeks in advance....

Lets keep it polite chaps... Without the sarcasm. For what it's worth, since I have been lurking around here for the last 5 year's, I have noticed the EC32 has not always been consistent... I think that was the point that daveshug was trying to make.