wolvesfan

Morning all, Fairly good agreement then for the azores high to migrate North,its generally being modeled to build further North on each run,Wouldn't it be ironic to eventually build into a position to deliver us cold.

Morning all, From a cold perspective the models are shocking thats for sure,its plain to see the zonal flows set to continue for a while yet,however i think theres still good reason to be optimistic for the rest of winter (historically,coldest months to come). Theres been signs of change for a while in the strat and we are now starting to see warming to the middle area, IMO the anomolously cold strat has been the problem all along even with the failed easterly episode.too much residule energy from the dissplaced vortex keeping the polar westerly flow strong,the fuel supply is now being cut off and we should see implications down in the troposphere with a decrease in the zonal flow and a greater chance of a polar outbreak into the mid lattitudes,hopefully to our benefit. So theres still plenty IMO to remain optimistic about despite the MRF not being what we would have wished for. Wolvesfan.

Evening all, I know its not wise to pay too much attention to the models out into fi,but due to the zonal flow thats entrenched itself recently thats where the pattern changer undoubtedly lies. Nice to see 12z rising heights to our NW as we seem more likely to benefit from that area than any other. Slight changes to the mets wording today on its LRF and whats developing in the strat leaves me feeling a little more optimistic this evening ,i feel it wont be long before the models start to evolve in showing a colder solution. wolvesfan.

Morning all, Better last couple of runs from the GFS,i for one wouldn't be too dissapointed to see a chart similar to this varify, Ensembles showing good support, Some might moan that its transient but i'll take any cold on offer at the moment. ECM not dissimilar either.

Evening all, I quite like the ECM 500mb mean at day 10,http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html The east Canadian block funelling cold air from the Arctic which feeds the trough to the SW of the uk,Azores high is ridging into spain but props up further trough over the UK,dosn't look like a mild feed to my untrained eye.wouldn't there be a lot of cold air in the mid atlantic?

Agreed,the met over the past couple of winters have called things pretty accurately IMO in the medium and long range forecasts.i find them an excellent tool to use inconjunction with the various model output,and reading between the lines they give you a good idea of which of the models they are favouring.from a cold lovers perspective though there text forecast like the models dosn't always make for good viewing.

Morning all, Model output not good at the moment for any cold longevity,long term it seems the Azores high will have the greatest bearing on the UK weather with most models showing it taking control.the Icelandic low becoming more prominent delivering a classic +NAO.we all know what follows. It seems we may need to see something quick from the strat before the zonal flow locks in.

Morning all, Whats become clear to me in the short time i've been addicted to viewing the output,is that the detail we have available to us paints rather a diffrent picture to what the met and other proffessionals are seeing.sometimes we can see cold longevity in the output when its much more marginal than weve been led to believe,hence the recent massive letdown. it does seem then reading between the lines of what the pro's are seeing theres a chance of something a little more interesting around the christmas period,with an all out atlantic domination not yet forced upon us.

Evening all, GFS 12z operational run clearly one of the mildest members of all the ensembles,

Hi TMW, Not that unusual look at these historical pressure patterns, The strat temps where on a parr with what we're seeing at the moment, http://www.geo.fu-be...pole/index.html

Morning all, I'm no expert but this dosn't look mild.anyone agree?

Morning all, Although the cool pattern hasn't benefitted us too greatly,the overall big picture is full of potential for a cold spell to develop (unlike last autumn).All the telleconnections are favourable and the strats our friend at the moment.the main mods might be showing standard autumn fayre for the uk but looking at the northern hemisphere pattern things wouldn't have to alter much for us to recieve some significant cold.uk met seems to be indicative of this on this mornings run,

Morning all, Heights remaining strong to our NW on this mornings runs,NAO still -ve,and the tropospheric vortex still dissplaced,no surprise then for a continuation of the cold/cool weather to continue over the UK. Heights also forecast to rise over Russia,it'll be interesting to see if it has any bearing on the UK weather as November progresses,wonder what the chances are of a Greenland/Russian link up?.

Evening all, 0.5C here at the moment,unfortunatly raining outside.

I personally think the models recently have shown lots of potential for cold lovers to get exited about,more importantly though it's the background signals that have made for better viewing,we've seen a big warming to the stratosphere and a -ve AO develop along with the NAO become more favourable. I'm no expert but IMO the potential is still there,we need to let the atmospheric transition evolve and see where we stand.

Morning all, Models not good this morning as they downgrade our predicted cold snap,ECM the first to lead the way yesterday and GFS following.Needless to say though that's all they have done downgraded the cold for this weekend,there's still potential going forward although the recent strat warming hasn't been kind to us as yet.This morning's GFS run also one of the mildest of the ensemble members.GFS ensemble mean still running below the long term mean.

Morning all, The worrying thing for me this morn from the ECM in particular, is the way it rebuilds the polar vortex,also the blocks in Russia and Asia pull back and we see the cold push back into the pole from the northern lattitudes especially over the United States.I suspect a -ve AO could only be short lived. We deffinatly need the strat warming to propogate lower down or IMO any cold snap wont have longevity,

Evening all, Posters need to learn quickly not to hang on every run,GFS 12z op one of the mildest runs viewed amongst the ensemble members,the ensemble mean still dips below the long term average after the 19th as it has for a few days now.ECM also ties in with the GFS trending cold from the 19th,that is the big picture not individual runs that show diffrent outcomes. A trending -ve AO is pushing cold out of the polar region south into the northern lattitudes,the mods are still getting to grips with this but the pattern weve seen this winter is set to change dramatically from around the 19th.

Morning all, GFS 6z now very much in-line with the ECM,looks like our shot of cold for the imidiate timeframe has now gone,needless to say though oppurtunity is now there for our next shot around day ten. As other posters have stated it was unlikely to reach us first time round but all the signs are there that a new pattern is trying to emerge. The next chance at around day ten looks a lot more plausible to me with the polar jet taking a big nosedive south.

Evening all, Has there ever been as much diffrence between the top two?,GFS and ECM are miles appart with there output,gfs looks like a cold outlier but clearly isn't, it remains to be seen where the ECM fits amongst the ensemble members. Big diffrence IMHO stems from the vortex dissruption around t120 shown on both models,ECM rebuilds it a lot faster than GFS does.interesting to see who backs down over this one,ECM hasn't been as consistent as GFS of late especially into the low res part of the run.

The only thing that is certain at the moment is the fact that nothing is certain,the mods flip floping back and forth with no cross model agreement for two consecutive runs. It's going to be a few days before things become clearer.

Morning all, Most fellow posters now agreeing a change is on it's way,the models flip flopping at the moment indicative of this.we should start to see some good synoptics being modeled shortly as the mods get a better handle of the good background signals that are developing,especially the continuing warming to the stratosphere.

GFS 6z,major diffrence for me from 00z, Aleutian ridge gone and replaced with low pressure,expect it to be back on the later runs i suspect,ECM seems keen on this outcome.The ridge will be important in dissplacing the vortex.

Better run tonight from the ECM,vortex wants to vacate and warm uppers closing in on Greenland.

Evening all, Models not good in the short term for deep cold,however with more favourable NAO,AO mid month onwards also more stat warming forecast the northen hemisphere should look a lot diffrent from what we've been accustomed to seeing this winter. The pattern is more of a gentle transition so understandably fellow posters are becoming impatient,GFS 12z again try's to build heights further north this evening and the northern hemisphere h500 model output ends with the polar westerlys much quieter. posters are fed up of hearing it but we do need to be patient,the pattern is changing just not as quickly as we would wish..