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wolvesfan

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Everything posted by wolvesfan

  1. Morning all Cold still on the way,uncertainty on how long it will last but that is always the case. GFS op run a mild outlier in the later stages,majority ensembles showing cold. We've seen the models deviate run to run when there is a major pattern change afoot in the past. ECM looks to me like it couild deliver a true scandi high.the high doesn't to me look like toppling.-10 upper air temps on its last frame. The trend is still for a much colder pattern.
  2. Morning all, Are we now seeing the stubborn low heights circa Greenland being removed with something more conducive to cold for the UK?, Z500 anomolys seem to think so, Starting chart ECM Day nine GFS start Day nine Further down we can see more signs from the surface pressure, GFS day ten ECM day ten, GFS ensembles on the slide,
  3. Morning all, Middle strat temp now running well above the mean,not sure how long it will stay there, It'll be interesting to see if we get any trop response further down the line.Ensembles have been sniffing a change for quite a few runs 0z indicative,
  4. Morning all, IMHO we can never rule out a cold outbreak regardless of what the NWP show,many a cold spell has cropped up at short notice take this one for instance a seemingly dire chart below, Fast forward ten days to this, Aythings possible. The strats warming as we speak,
  5. Morning all, All models in agreement then,a period of zonality set to take over.I wouldn't be too bullish over how long it will last though and definatly wont be righting off the rest of this month that is just plain ridiculous,weve seen cold modelled at relatively short notice and out of the blue in the past and with the current pattern I see no reason why this isn't still the possible.One or two posters comparing similarities with this year and last,sorry but I just don't see them,the zonal flow last year was a lot stronger.This year IMBY weve seen five days of lying snow and recorded 10 air frosts since the start of December I think that by far exceeds last years winter total already.
  6. Morning all, It seems our chance of a pressure rise circa Greenland has now passed,even with the trop vortex relaxing around Baffin low heights have still scuppered any WAA from Atlantic ridging.Indeed current NWP are now pointing towards a rejuvenated trop vortex emerging in the Greenland area around the new year, with current output I would think our best chance of achieving heights that will bring cold to the UK would now be from our N/E,as I think this can be achieved whilst we have a strong trop vortex to the N/W.We have also seen heights low around the Alutians so far this winter and the snow advancement over Russia we saw in October would I think correlate to us seeing the return of the Russian high at some point this winter. ECM tries to rise pressure into Scandi around the 29th and we see a link up with the Russian high, Its something I'll be looking out for wether it materializes is a different matter. Merry Christmas to you all, Wolvesfan
  7. Morning again, One thing clear from the ensembles the operational run from the GFS was one of the milder solutions,
  8. Morning all, GFS operational looks an outlier and propbably one of the milder (wrong)solutions, Last nights 18z also an outlier as can be seen from the ensemble most runs below average 850 temps, Gem still looking cold for cold, UK met agrees, So does ECM, ECM,GEM go on to build stronger blocks circa Greenland,
  9. Evening all, Made the mistake of coming in here tonight before I viewed the output,heres what I found when I went and looked for myself, All the above showing cold for the big day. Great potential going forward too.
  10. Evening all, Lots of talk regarding the Azores being a winter spoiler.Could be quite the opposite though as we can see from these three epic charts below, WAA from the Azores fuelled the above.We wont get a sustained HLB without it.
  11. Afternoon all, Lots of speculation of what's going to happen out into the low resolution of the various model runs.The hear and now of the situation is that its cold and if you don't believe me go for a walk and see for yourself,todays temps, 60mph N/W gusts and we have a significant wind chill. Modeling looks good for cold in the high res part,GFS indicative, Still looks great out to next Wednesday, After that take with a pinch of salt.
  12. Morning all. Its nice to see something more seasonal has arrived,Tomorrows chart indicative, Cant say I'm too despondant going forward either.Hemisphericaly GFS in particular shows the heights which have been persistently low circa Baffin Island begin to drain and the residule energy eventually pushed to the Siberian sector. Week three looks good to me for potential although here on the ground we might have to suffer a while before we get what we want.
  13. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/areas/data-assimilation-and-ensembles/ensemble-forecasting/MOGREPS
  14. Morning all, Looking odds on for a return of a more mobile flow for the UK.All models showing the retreat of the Scandi/Russian block allowing progression of fronts into the uk,angle of entry looks good as others have stated with a constant spew of low pressure sytems from the Baffin Island vortex,N/W S/E angled as highlighted below, ECM GFS, Temperaturs also dropping as wind swings into the N/W and taps into colder air, Jet stream also picking up sum intensity, Looks like after this weekend nothing mild on offer but plenty of cold wet and windy weather as we head into December.
  15. Morning all, My knowledge is limited compared to the majority on here.I cant see any cold whilst we have high pressure as such over Europe though,sceuro highs seem give nothing but mild for the uk we need some lower heights digging in.Heres a chart I hope doesn't verify, It will help with the strat vortex over Siberia only if it destroys it totally and dosnt relocate it closer to us. I'd sooner see warmth over the states because that lobe over the Baffin island area looks a lot less intense to me.Surely the Siberian vortex is better where it is?.
  16. Morning all, AO forecast to go positive for a while,Lots of cold air upstream over the states and Canada that spewed off the pole though.Thats where our weather looks likely to come from now and we can see from the ECM that the air is cold to say the least. The atlantic will dilute the cold as it crosses but to me it looks like its going to be colder than anything the east had to offer from our earlier hopes. If the posted chart were to verify it would be hardly mild with isobars stretching back to what could be termed a cold pool.Northern hemisphere temp profile highlighting its colder to our west than east, I for one wont be too dispondant
  17. I'm a cold lover and it does pain me to say,but with the data we have available a slightly less intense zonal does look the form horse. Data at circa 15 days can't be taken serious.
  18. Morning, This driving everything for me at the moment, Ensembles nothing to shout about, Day 10 means support a continuation of the status quo, OTHER 8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN RECENT RUN (12UTC) RETURN LINKS E-WALL HOME Data available does suggest a continuation of the zonal pattern.Tropospheric vortex forecast to weaken but is still going to be unfavourable for heights to rise bringing cold to the uk.
  19. Hi all, It was january 1985,the polar outbreak,a SSW ocured when the strat warmed by around 13c,cheers.
  20. Hi all, you would think this thread would be more active considering todays date. Hello mr Data,Great story for halloween,hope we get a few more.
  21. Alan Robinson, on 28 October 2011 - 09:51 , said: I see that Psychic Sally has been challenged. Will she do it? http://www.guardian....owers-halloween Hi all,i think anyone who puts themselves in the public eye has a duty to defend what they stand for especialy regarding a subject as controversial.
  22. Thanks for that Allan still trying to understand it though,lol.maybe i need to brush up on my poetry.
  23. Hi all,just thaught id tell you about something i experienced recently whilst on holiday with my wife and 6 year old daughter,we were staying in whitby north yorkshire in a very old cottage.i awoke sat morning at 7am and was laid listening to the noises from the lovely old town waking up,my daughter was in the next bedroom to us it is a small cottage,then around 7.45am i heard loud slow footsteps on the landing outside walking towards the bathroom i thaught it was my daughter at first but soon realised the footsteps were too heavy,the footsteps then carried on back across the landing and down the stairs,at this point i shouted to my daughter to which there was no reply so i got up to check and found she was fast asleep(so was my wife by the way) i then checked the cottage and obviously no one was there.its not the only eerie experience i've had there but nothing too dramatic just lots of insugnificant things,just thaught id'e share this one with you all.
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