wolvesfan

Scandinavian high pressure. lot harder to shift than the faux Greenland high we’ve just witnessed. a similar 80’s set up could be round the corner according to latest model runs.

I’ve spent years model watching craving the winters from my childhood. I’ve accepted they seldom materialize in the uk,2010 being an exception. The models are mere cogs in the larger forecasting machine and mustn’t be taken too seriously past day 4/5.Too many hanging on there every run only to suffer when the inevitable happens and the output is watered down,when it comes into the reliable timeframe. Cold winters unfortunately are becoming a thing of the past.The models merely indicating what’s likely to happen,not the driver.

Is it possible that the affects of the SSW will be felt in a couple of weeks?and not immediately. If so then the charts we are viewing aren’t a direct tropospheric response to the SSW but standard winter weather. Maybe fi in this instance should be taken more seriously? Something noteworthy has surely got to materialise from this winter.

Evening all spent years watching the models,very seldom they are wrong,even more rarely they backtrack.nothing but cold rain in the output and tbh anyone who can see anything but,are kidding themselves.

Morning all Cold still on the way,uncertainty on how long it will last but that is always the case. GFS op run a mild outlier in the later stages,majority ensembles showing cold. We've seen the models deviate run to run when there is a major pattern change afoot in the past. ECM looks to me like it couild deliver a true scandi high.the high doesn't to me look like toppling.-10 upper air temps on its last frame. The trend is still for a much colder pattern.

Morning all, Are we now seeing the stubborn low heights circa Greenland being removed with something more conducive to cold for the UK?, Z500 anomolys seem to think so, Starting chart ECM Day nine GFS start Day nine Further down we can see more signs from the surface pressure, GFS day ten ECM day ten, GFS ensembles on the slide,

Morning all, Middle strat temp now running well above the mean,not sure how long it will stay there, It'll be interesting to see if we get any trop response further down the line.Ensembles have been sniffing a change for quite a few runs 0z indicative,

Morning all, IMHO we can never rule out a cold outbreak regardless of what the NWP show,many a cold spell has cropped up at short notice take this one for instance a seemingly dire chart below, Fast forward ten days to this, Aythings possible. The strats warming as we speak,

My point is though its still very early in the winter,thers still time for the Russian high to become a driver this winter,of course time will tell.

With all due respect isn't it a little early to be righting off this years opi?,it is still the 31 December after all.

Morning all, All models in agreement then,a period of zonality set to take over.I wouldn't be too bullish over how long it will last though and definatly wont be righting off the rest of this month that is just plain ridiculous,weve seen cold modelled at relatively short notice and out of the blue in the past and with the current pattern I see no reason why this isn't still the possible.One or two posters comparing similarities with this year and last,sorry but I just don't see them,the zonal flow last year was a lot stronger.This year IMBY weve seen five days of lying snow and recorded 10 air frosts since the start of December I think that by far exceeds last years winter total already.

Morning all, It seems our chance of a pressure rise circa Greenland has now passed,even with the trop vortex relaxing around Baffin low heights have still scuppered any WAA from Atlantic ridging.Indeed current NWP are now pointing towards a rejuvenated trop vortex emerging in the Greenland area around the new year, with current output I would think our best chance of achieving heights that will bring cold to the UK would now be from our N/E,as I think this can be achieved whilst we have a strong trop vortex to the N/W.We have also seen heights low around the Alutians so far this winter and the snow advancement over Russia we saw in October would I think correlate to us seeing the return of the Russian high at some point this winter. ECM tries to rise pressure into Scandi around the 29th and we see a link up with the Russian high, Its something I'll be looking out for wether it materializes is a different matter. Merry Christmas to you all, Wolvesfan

Morning again, One thing clear from the ensembles the operational run from the GFS was one of the milder solutions,

Morning all, GFS operational looks an outlier and propbably one of the milder (wrong)solutions, Last nights 18z also an outlier as can be seen from the ensemble most runs below average 850 temps, Gem still looking cold for cold, UK met agrees, So does ECM, ECM,GEM go on to build stronger blocks circa Greenland,

Evening all, Made the mistake of coming in here tonight before I viewed the output,heres what I found when I went and looked for myself, All the above showing cold for the big day. Great potential going forward too.