seb

Quite the opposite. There appears to be a tendency by some to take synoptics at 8 days plus as gospel leading to conclusions such as “significant rain for all”. The models are just that, models of different scenarios which become less reliable the further out they are. For nearly a year now, all models have overestimated the impact of frontal systems coming from the Atlantic. Every time a decent amount of rain is shown in the Eastern half of the UK from such a system, it gets watered down and pushed back. There has been no “force” to push those systems sufficiently across the country and that fact remains. Unless and until the Atlantic patterns go towards something we’d consider a standard setup, this won’t change. It matters not one bit if both the ECM and GFS show a monsoon over the Eastern half at >T+8, unless there is a major change in the overall Atlantic pattern, these scenarios wont verify.

Deja-vu? Only today’s post has the “significant amount of rain” starting three days late. Instead of it starting in the SE, we had… a sunny day we would often have wished for in other years in the middle of summer!

As expected, the latest MetO fax charts fall into line…gone are any convergence zones from the S&E. Surface Pressure Charts WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Surface pressure charts indicating areas of high and low pressure and a guide to interpreting weather data

And UKV, AROME plus ARPEGE showed it on their precip charts as well.

Yep. Copious amounts of rain from tonight… then it changed to tomorrow…then to Sunday and guess what, now it’s Tuesday! Even on the UKV there’s no rain to be seen for most of England as far as it goes.

Far from it. Total accumulated precipitation is a guide, not more and not less. The pattern I described above has been in place since last November for our area. A rain event is showing up, giving totals of 40mm+ by day 8 or 9. It stays like that for a couple of runs then amounts are at least halved and then reduced further with each run. Even the Met is once again going for a NW/SE split.

Even the ECM now has next to nothing up to Wednesday for the S&E. Everything after that I’ll take with a pinch of salt just like the GFS after T+8. Both models have overcooked precipitation amounts for months at that range just to then reduce it run after run.

All I can say is that if latest modelling is not completely off then there will be very little rain for large parts of England and more so in the S&E. Last 5 runs have not only reduced the total amount but have pushed back rain starting on Saturday to Sunday and then to Monday.

Huh? The GFS is showing lovely temps throughout until deepest FI and as good as no rain away from the West. It of course has the same soaking it has been showing at 360 hours for the past how ever many weeks or months.

We ended up with just under an hour of very light rain in the end. Grand total 0.75mm which means that since the last proper rain event at the start of June we have had less than 5mm.

The sharp border to no precipation has basically not moved East in three hours. We have had literally one minute of drizzle that didn’t even wet any surfaces. The latest UKV has an area of measurable rain just about touching my location around 1PM before everything moves into the North Sea. However, based on live radar and just how much narrower the band of rain is over the channel and into Northern France compared to earlier, I’d bet on it skirting the Eastern parts you mention (and which have stayed dry so far) to the West before exiting. It would need quite some development on the Eastern side of the band to avoid that and so far I haven’t seen anything that would set that off.

Well, we have had a grand total of 0mm as of 8:15am and the same applies for everywhere East of here, including large parts of Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk.

Well, as of 8:15am I am happy to report that we have had 0mm of rain and I saw some lightning around 5am! EDIT! Breaking news! Stop press!!!! I have just been viciously hit in the face by………. A drop of……. DRIZZLE!!! It’s a deluge here

No meaningful rain on GFS until well into FI for large parts of the country (8 Sep) and even that leaves large parts of the S&E drought areas with just trace amounts.

The East Kent desert defence shield remains in full force!

Looks like UKV and GFS were on the money. Unless there’s quite some shift east, we will once again remain dry or get trace amounts here and East of us. Nice to see some distant lightning to my West and SW though.

Yes sorry, should have said "much wider" but look at the amounts for East Kent! 3-4mm if lucky.

Extremely narrow band of rain tomorrow. Difficult to model. Latest UKV leaves me and areas east of here almost dry as does Arpege. ICON has the band even narrower but largest amount right over me. ECM wants a soaking of a large area and is very much out of line with what’s showing on other models. GFS has lower amounts than most but over a wider area but matches UKV regarding the Eastern extent, leaving East Kent as good as dry.

GFs 6z once again has no meaningful rain until well into FI, where it wants to bring in a front from the West. At this stage think we should treat any rain being shown at 8+ days just as we treat snow setups. They won’t happen.

I don’t think it happens every summer. Last summer usually turned out as modelled. It’s been a problem since around October last year. No matter what’s modelled with rain coming in from the West, it ends up either disappearing completely or so weakened that predication amounts are close to zero. The further S & E you’re in the country, the worse it is.

Warm and dry away from the N&W throughout all model runs. GFS and ICON want some rain in the SE on Thursday but ECM, ARPEGE having none of it. Neither does UKV by the looks of it (just based on the MetO app). As countless times since last autumn, a countrywide washout day (today), which was still being modelled by numerous models as late as 36 hours ago… has vanished, with the SE staying completely dry.

And yet again giving nothing but trace amounts for the S&E. Unless you take ECM literally but given its overestimations of rain for months… even if it were right it’s small amounts. Temps away from the N&W very decent throughout. Low 20s next weekend otherwise 25 or thereabouts. Far from poor across most of the country. Sorry NW.

It’s more a case of there being nothing extraordinary, albeit weather which we would often have begged for in other years. For the S&E the entire runs of GFS and ECM show decent weather with temps in the low to mid 20s and apart from a small amount of rain on Monday (the monsoon has been downgraded to next to nothing) and possibly on Thursday/Friday it is dry and mostly sunny. I don’t think we could ask for more, although to help with the drought situation we should of course want rain. As it stands, drought conditions will worsen.

GFS looking very nice tonight

We have lots of thunder and lightning but not a lot of rain...