[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

there is a heck of a lot of rain outside very heavy, consistent and a good three or four hours worth so far not including the thunderstorms rain as well earlier

tomorrow could be more flooding I suspect and the rest of the week Herald any better weather in fact they said more rain

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

And what strange is all of this weather is coming in from the south right from bay of Biscay and it’s not like it’s been bumping into extremely cold weather or anything and yet we’ve had snow.

Times during the winter we’ve had occasional cold air sat over us and rain comes in bumps into cold air and has stayed as rain a couple of times this winter.  
 

my dad used to say nowt queer as folk. 
 

I would add to that nowt queer as weather ….! 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Well, what an interesting day some snow this morning and now it’s thunderstorms this evening
 

Sometimes can go a whole summer without thunderstorms and a whole winter without any snow and now I’m getting both of these in the same day

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Now there are even some wet snowflakes coming down

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Certainly didn’t expect to see heavy sleet here today, but that’s what it’s been doing! 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 BIGDOG2

just woke up to some heavy snow that had fallen here in Frome

I’d say a good inch had fallen, although it does look like it’s starting to melt quite quickly

Probably was a little bit deeper when it first fell, and I’m guessing that would’ve been around 3 to 4 o’clock a nice wrap around looking at the radar

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

I was at Downton yesterday. There was the most incredible downpour. It was heavy when I left Downton and as I drove up and over the A360 from Salisbury and then on the road past Stonehenge to shrewton there was some heavy blobs of snow mixed in with rain and sleet

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Absolutely hammering it down here 

while me up rain coming in had to close window even though was only open a smidgen but wind very gust and blowing the rain in 

Must be min 25mm from this 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I was just looking at charts and I used the slider at the bottom to progress the charts in almost like an animation. Then I slid it back to the beginning again and ran it through sliding my finger. 
 

what I found astonishing is you can actually see the effect of the warmer ocean temperatures that have been around and you can notice how fast any cold incursions not just near the UK but even off the eastern seaboard of America and down from the Western coast of Greenland, the cold shots that come down there everything that’s coming into the Atlantic from either there or from Iceland direction or cold that comes down Ireland to the western coast of United Kingdom even a brief Easterley all the cold incursions just evaporate so quickly when moving the animation you can see it’s quite incredible . just give it a go and you’ll see what I mean, and this has been part of the issue this winter with such strong anomalies in subtropical region such strength down here and weaker heights and a disrupted arctic has all put pay so far to any real cold and longevity. I just found it fascinating and white to share it as I couldn’t believe how quick each cold blast just evaporates as soon as it hits over the Atlantic right the way from eastern US over to us

. 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Dorsetbred i was having this very conversation with my son this morning. If after 1-2 weeks hot weather they have bans then something seriously wrong… 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Rainfall totals from this look much less than the 40mm forecast so reduced risk of flooding thank goodness. 
This was Frome recently during one bout of flooding. 

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 AWD

ah yes you are correct my mistake . Thanks for flagging up.

 

4deg cooler for here so more like it although still mild for time of year.

 

 

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Looking very springlike in to March if my app is to be believed!!

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

interesting develop development to our west not sure if there’s any circular rotation in that at the moment but looks more than a shower. Could be a couple of hours worth of rain out of this as it’s slow moving to add to the already waterlogged ground due to the weeks of rainfall.

There is even a thunderstorm alert out for here, although I doubt that will come to fruition

Just to answer my last post it does actually look like this area of rain is the bottom end of a weakening filling low pressure system to our north

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Sleet mixed in with heavy rain here 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Dorsetbred completely agree with you. I have actually stated in the model thread on numerous occasions that despite all the super computers, it’s just going to be so much more difficult than it was before with so many new changes happening most likely because of CC. And as you said, as well that none of these changes were picked up on this winter, when all the forecast and ensembles painted a different picture to what has actually been the outcome. Telekinetics, can’t be relied upon, neither can many of the forecasts that are put out there. 
an extremely difficult area for these people to work in with forecasts with so many changes afoot. 
what I have noticed, seems to have been much milder and wetter winters. 

I remember some winters, when I was younger that if we didn’t get snow, sometimes we’d have long settled periods of extremely cold weather by day from high-pressure systems that had migrated down from the north or east to sit right over us, and of course, I remember some pretty snowy times as well. 

Since 2007. I do remember quite a few snowy periods on several occassions but something definitely seems much different More so recently.

So seems to me like the winters are definitely milder and far wetter for long periods of time, and the summers seem to have far fewer thunderstorms, but also I’ll be becoming quite hot and for longer periods of time with more extreme temperatures. 
 

The sea temperatures in North Atlantic have also been several degrees above where they normally would be.

I’m not sure if anyone else follows this, but I often follow the cold plunges that come down the eastern side of Canada, and I remember times when this called polar maritime air mass, could make it right across the Atlantic and onto our shores.

And I also remember the cold plunges coming down the eastern seaboard of Canada would go quite far south down the east coast of the United States, but this winter. A lot of the cold air really does disappear quite quickly when it turns that corner to start head into the mid atlantic. 
 

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Andy Bown thanks Andy . I can imagine it was after that deluge

 looks like a lot more to come this week as well looking at all the low slow circulating low pressures due

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Andy Bown i was thinking the same thing! 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Andy Bown not surprising at all we had a right damage around our areas, didn’t we?

as Mr P said earlier, I was very surprised as well due to high-pressure not being that far away. I think they must’ve been a squeeze between the low and high, forcing up more moisture moisture laden skies for sure.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

My last posts were saying how much rain we had had, but I was awoken in the night by even heavier rain I couldn’t believe it. It was literally torrential. Thought it was heavy enough earlier on from daylight hours into the evening. Up to midnight.

but look at the radar from in the middle all the night when I was woken by the rain

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 MP-R The other thing I just noticed is if you move the slider, Backwards and forwards. Some of the rain is actually just forming over the top of us. It’s not actually moving in from the west otherwise the backend would’ve been past us but if you look you can see it’s just red that’s forming and staying over us where is the lighter stuff is moving from East west it’s quite strange don’t quite know how that phenomenal works. It’s not like this part of the world is up on the side of the mountain and so one side of the mountain is stuck in the moisture out and the other side is dry which I have seen with rain coming in through the Irish seat up into the Lake District before or Cumbria or Wales, and sometimes you see light rain that turns heavy up on the side of the mountain, but like I say there’s no mountains here so how it’s doing that is quite strange 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 MP-R I was thinking exactly the same earlier I looked at the pressure charts saw the high-pressure that looked very close by and yet there’s this astonishing amount of rain so close, so I refresh the charts, thinking that I was looking at an old set from a few days before or something but it refreshed and showed the same set of charts. So a great observation from you MPR as I thought the same. 

Still chucking it down very  heavy rain since 5pm 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Absolutely chucking it down here for the last few hours! Floods will no doubt be prevalent once again on soddened ground from ahead heavy rain through last week and huge amounts the weeks prior to that. 

Looks like lots more to come the next week or so aswell . 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Andy Bown I was thinking the same Andy

Have had many hours of heavy rain here in Frome as you probably have over there and it’s still going now

we must’ve had between one or 2 inches of rain

and the weekend looks like there could be more rain so flooding looks increasingly likely on top of already saturated ground and surface water from the last bouts of rain

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Hotspur62

I feel that it’s higher pressures, more stagnated topography of these, forcing up milder winds from the south and south-west, so the pressure charts often resemble in reality very similar patterns to our Southwest, and these are particularly strong in recent years and a hard to shift out of the way

So I’m not sure when these long-range forecasts come out they are looking at certain drivers for sure whether they include these recent stagnant high-pressure systems. Well that I’m not so sure of. 
 

if you turn a standing fan on, and it’s blowing cold air with no obstruction in the way, but if you put a wall in the place of the flow, this will disrupt this colder flow of air, and if you have a strong wall with a strong, counteracting driver behind it. This will inevitably. Prohibit the colder, incursions and certainly any longevity, but make it very difficult to get any cold in place

The wall is equivalent of the high-pressure systems that we have encountered through most of this winter to our Southwest

 

Also, just to add to my last post, the fact that there has not been any particularly strong Arctic high-pressure systems as well, but also they seem to have been many more smaller disturbances, and as we all know, it only takes one small disturbance in the far north to disrupt any potential flows south, plus there’s also been warmer sea temperatures as well, so the warmth has been exacerbated still further from our Southwest.