Man With Beard

ECM T240 mean quite similar to GEFS T240 mean except around Scotland, where low pressure is kept much further north on the latter in all honesty the ECM is a very tiny step backwards from last night's - but still painfully close to being a very good run, and certainly more than acceptable. This morning's GEM would be in line with the more positive side of the ECM ensembles as far as the UK is concerned, I'd imagine (a few clear differences elsewhere of course) Something like GEFS member 18 would fit the overall ensemble output well for T200-T300, I think - 6th August, a short ridge of high pressure, followed by a temporary interruption on 8th August as we are caught between ridges to the south (not particularly rainy), before the weak mid-Atlantic ridge topples over us for the 9th to 12th (maybe a bit more southerly-based than shown). Just a calculated guess - not a definitive forecast - the weather is far too unpredictable for that, of course! And just for balance, this is worst-case... but very few ensembles are like this today so far - more are better than worse

It wouldn't really be a discussion board if people all had the same approach. JH and Knocker try to take a balanced approach which normally involves the rejection of extremes, unless highly certain to happen. Tamara gives us a view generally based on background drivers (proving pretty good right at the moment). Karl is looking for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow (and yes I'm a little like that too on here, don't people like a bit of hope as long as there's some sort of basis? Isn't that why some people read this forum?). And a few others on here post the worst possible charts because, perhaps, they are venting their personal disappointment or cynicism. As it's a discussion board, not a "reporting board", I really think there should be room for everyone. And may I add too - while I've been on here, every type of poster has had a victory at some point - Karl has actually been more accurate quite a few times when compared with the more balanced posters - and so have the cynics. That proves to me their worth. And the current set-up is another one of those where I'm prepared to stick my neck out in a positive way. I'm predicting between 4 and 7 warm and pleasant days across most of the UK from 6th or 7th August onwards. The GFS, GEM and general pattern on the GEFS this morning back up the feeling I got last night from the ECM ens, where there was clearly good weather potential.

ECM ensembles for London - op run almost an outlier towards the end http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=2&x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0

Latest NOAA - pretty average, best in the south just to lift spirits ... at least it's slightly better than this one, which preceded some pretty dreadful weather in early August 2013 ...just shows how things can change!! I haven't lost all hope in that pressure rise 6/7 August yet, though the models are pouring a bit of cold water on it at the moment - there must have been some credibility in the idea for so many ensemble members to have gone hot in the last 48 hours - the possibility must still exist - here's hoping!! And if anyone in the south would like a further straw clutch ... this is the ensemble chart for Paris. Lots of very hot runs in FI. Yes, it's common for this to happen in our kind of set-up, with the UK missing out - but equally, you wouldn't bet your house on this heat not being a couple of hundred miles further north come T0

16.6C ... due to a strong Atlantic and continued attempts at mid-Atlantic ridging, you'd think it could end up colder - but I think these tendencies will cancel each other out in the first half of August and topple enough weak ridges towards us to keep it relatively warm in central England. Last 10 days of August a lottery but no doubt September will be a stunner...

OK Knocks will take your word for it ... I've lost my link to the extended ECM ensembles for the Iceland area (showing a bit of the UK) - anyone got it to hand

I'd say the ECM mean at T240 is a little more encouraging at getting at least a short period of summery weather to many for the wkend 6/7 August with the upper high slightly more dominant than the trough. I've started to analyse the ECM T240 mean archives and so far, in a very small sample it must be said, I've been impressed, as it was only a little less accurate than the ECM T144 op run. I hope to publish more results sometime in August

Unfortunately I have to agree - height rises for D8 onwards are now tending to occur either in the wrong place or in the same places we've already seen this summer. Few optimum ensembles this morning for a UK High. Still time for a shift back though.

I commented yesterday how there were some encouraging signs for the D10-D15 period - here's the graph for the past 4 GEFS runs for London: Still signs of promise but a tad weaker than at this stage yesterday. Yes, still that potential for that super-hot run, with a number of runs topping 15C at 850Hpa and even a few above 20C - always notable when appearing at that range - but I'd say slightly fewer runs in the 10-15C range compared with last night, and the mean is a little down. The general thrust of a height rise in our part of the Atlantic is still on, and many ensemble members are still crackers (thanks Karl for highlighting this) - but the main reason for the very slight downturn is a few more naughty runs which manage to squeeze a trough in between height rises immediately to our west and to our east. Having said that, these are precisely the patterns that bring the mega-heat our way when slightly to our west. So a bit of a "risk/reward" board as we see things for D10 onwards tonight. But looking likely that the flat pattern will be mixed-up by the weekend after next. To be continued! EDIT - I see Meteociel has a new feature (or at least I hadn't spotted it before) - probabilities of a scenario happening - have a scroll through the timeframes after T192 and you can see how the warmer air infiltrates the UK (link: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=31&carte=&proba=1). Below are charts for T192 and T252 - you can see how the warmer air has [potentially!] encroached northwards:

ECM extended ensembles: A reasonable cluster going for a slightly warmer patch 4-8th August (and, to be fair, a number that don't). (note this chart will be out of date by tomorrow morning)

Back after a few days away - what message does the GEFS bring tonight? Well, the upcoming ridge from the Azores looks flattened out a little, so perhaps only some summer joy for southern parts at the start of next week. Then by D10, almost all ensembles are flat with the worse the weather the further north you go. But by D12, a bit of a change appearing, as the whole pattern is moved north a tad, as shown by the mean: and this reflects a number of dramatically improved ensembles - 17 out of 21 ensemble members shown considerable progress north of the upper high in some proximity to the UK - many just west of the UK, a few to the east and a few directly over us. I felt that this ensemble was perhaps the one most in the middle: now being D12, this is just a "trend watch" at the moment and not to be taken too seriously, but if the pattern starts to move towards T200, it will need careful watching. I'm also struck by the amalgamation of the past 4 GEFS ensembles that Meteociel provides - I picked Manchester for this: aside the short burst around D7/D8, the number of runs getting into the 10C-15C at 850hpa keeps increasing as the run goes on - looking at the London chart, quite a few get close to 20C (6 getting between 15C and 20C in the last ensemble run alone). Unusual for the ensembles to pick out so many hot runs at long distance. So plenty of hope there for summer seekers.

Well this morning's GFS is pretty much the same until Sunday, when the Azores High finds some renewed strength and pushes the trough away from many parts, particularly in the south - leading to a further warm three days over most of England. So still a chance that the "unsettled" spell may be kept quite short away from Scotland/N Ireland

Tamara - your posting from 19th July has very much been in my thinking since about yesterday lunchtime. More and more, the Azores High looks to be taking a break between D6 and D9. I am encouraged that ensemble output that I can see generally supports a fresh surge from the Azores High afterwards (and with main troughing perhaps further away from us, with an even more positive result than before) - but I've seen many instances where the promised rebuild of pressure fades into something less positive - I think we want to see the pressure up to 1025mb on the majority of those ensembles before confidence can grow in a better first week of August. Still, good weather for many during the first part of this week. It's reached 26C or more for 8 consecutive days, not entirely unlikely that it could be 25C over 12 consecutive days before the northerly stuff bites??

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/short_range/srarc.ind.php you can get old charts from any date using this link. I think there were one or day days where it hinted at something like what happened, but not consistently.

Knocker - even I think your unsettled idea is looking more and more credible for the final weekend of July. I don't see any way out of a stream of lows hitting the UK tailgating on the back of the main trough. The signal for more mobility from the GEFS that I saw earlier in the week looks to be coming to fruition, only its impact looks set to be one of the worse options that I foresaw. Last weekend, some on here said "enjoy the next few days" - that didn't apply to south or east of Manchester, which continue to be very good even now - but now I really do think it is reasonable to say enjoy the next few days!

GEM joins UKMO in keeping pressure higher than GFS for midweek. It's still difficult to read this one, but I'm prepared to guess than southern areas will see virtually nil rainfall before the end of next week at least, some sunny spells and temps in low to mid 20s - not bad really (high 20s tomorrow and Sunday). Northern areas clearly cooler and showery, but not a washout even here I suspect. REMEMBER! After T84, the GFS goes precipitation mad - don't trust it until inside this timeframe. Keep watching for a possible plume over France by the end of the week and for signs that it may get further north IF forecasts of our main trough moving south are wrong...

I'm a bit too nervous to confidently call next week one way or the other - we've now seen numerous runs pulling the trough a little further north or shifting it a little further south - with somewhere in the UK being on the dividing line between the settled stuff and the unsettled stuff. The ECM seems to have had the fewest fluctuations in recent days - less eye candy on the ECM for next week, but interestingly a good trend even here - notice how the main trough gets slightly further NW on each run, and how heights over Greenland get eroded bit by bit as we move towards T0 (now when have we heard that before when reviewing the ECM!) Knocker - a note on something you said last night - I agree it's preferable to post charts as evidence but sometimes I post "on the run" and I judge it better just to make some contribution to the thread even without a chart, rather than make none at all. I presume the mods do not mind this?

What encourages me about the 12Zs is that both GFS and UKMO shift that trough a little further north. Today's GFS 12Z makes the best of the situation, yesterday's made the worst of it. Let's hope this keeps up.

ECM mean chart out to T240 - one thing has been consistent recently and that's a trough to the north: It means southern areas are never too far from the warm stuff, but northerners will really be wanting this trough to do a runner. Just a couple of hundred miles shift northwards would make a tremendous difference for summer prospects. Much stranger things have happened. Shift southwards though and ... oh dear.

Knocker has summed the GFS up nicely there. The key thing for me is that, for now, the GFS (and GEFS) has gone cold on ideas of a sustained NWly which it assisted to be firming up on at one point yesterday. It still goes cooler for a while next week but leaves the door open for a much better end of the week to finish July off (the final weekend itself not so sure). And don't say it too loudly but there's another plume attempt going on over France by T180, doesn't reach us on this run but this is how yesterday's plume started out...

The GFS seems to be making up its mind for next week - 12z follows the 06z and most of its ensembles - by mid next week, heights in the Atlantic force a more NWly flow and that means cooler everywhere, and eventually the SE too. If this proves to be the case then well done Knocker for calling this a week or two ago. On the positive note, though, a NWly in this set-up might mean a fair amount of sunshine, particularly for S facing coasts - and the far SW may see fairly good, warm weather

29C here and cloudless. Was not expecting that today.

Remarkably, the south coast is now catching up with E Anglia. 27.3C in my location right now, and Bournemouth has already reached 29C.

I don't believe so. There were a few between 22.5C and 23.0C, but non above that.

Can I just mention in here mods - following my post yesterday, I have had a lengthy discussion with Tamara through PMs. As a result, I would like to retract any implication that I was criticising her methods. My issue is with the difference between operational and ensemble D10-D15 forecasts and what I'm seeing at ground level (and just to add, probably from a localised perspective, not of those in Northern Ireland!). I re-read Tamara's post carefully after posting and realise I had not appreciated that she had given a lengthy explanation of why July has transpired as it has done, and also that her thoughts are not primarily based upon GFS/ECM runs anyway. I hope we can all encourage Tamara to keep posting in here as, whether we take the same view or not, posters like her mak this forum the rich fountain of knowledge that it is.