Man With Beard
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Posts posted by Man With Beard
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GFS 12Z keeps the low running up the channel. Likely that it will correct south into France as channel lows tend to do in winter...
... strike that - since it's just about too warm for snow, instead it's going to be a bullseye hit for the south with copious amounts of rain.
This really has been the mother of disappointing winters.
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Lukesluckybunch This is a great position to be in. I do feel good about a potential snow situation the week after the coming one - in recent years, models have underdone the speed of everything coming from the east at D8 when accompanied by northern blocking, so I would place my money on the easterly gaining momentum in the coming days, not losing it.
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minus10 No surprise to me. I'm getting to the stage where I'm considering March to be my main winter month!
February has brought close to zero snow even falling from the sky in the past 20 years on the south coast, apart from the last couple of days in 2018.
March probably sees snow falling 1 in 2 years here, and 3 good coverings since 2013.
The frustration, of course, is that although we often get excellent synoptics in March, they'd be so much more wintry in January! Dare I say there's been many a year recently where the March synoptics rivalled January 1947 or 1963 synoptics in terms of wintry potential (2013 stands out), but the depth of cold of course was capped by the increase in solar strength and daylight hours!
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Having had a "busy" life period recently I've been away from the forum for a while, and so I've just been catching up ... great thread!
I think one thing to add (probably has been but I'm only on page 2) ... I think there's a lack of appreciation that global signals are very difficult to correlate to "is it going to snow north or south of the M4"?
Global signals are only every starting point relating to a general area of the globe. They're never a guarantee of the end result for a specific location.
I hear Scandinavia has experienced a very cold winter. Doesn't that suggest it could have been us but for a little tweaking?
As much as science feels as if it should be perfect, and there's a craving for solutions as perfect as maths, we're just not there yet when it comes to scientific explanation, whether meteorology, or other stuff like the origins of the human race.
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Pretty spectacular capitulation on ECM ensembles in the past 48 hours wrt to Scandi/Sceuro high for the 16th February being completely tossed out - the mean was up to 1035mb at one point but has now been replaced by a Scandi low! Thankfully for nerves on here it never looked right for UK wintry weather anyway.
Perhaps the lesson is that the models are struggling big-time at the moment over something, and possibly more changes to come?
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Bit further ahead ... a really interesting chart here from the ECM ensembles 00Z, which shows virtual non-existence of westerly winds for London after about D8 until D15:
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IDO The period 15-20 February looks rather interesting. Consistent signals for a massive departure from the norm.
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A wide variety of snow options by Thursday on the GEFS, and that nagging thought that these set-ups often correct south between T120 and T72?
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1 hour ago, Penguin16 said:
You’re completely right but some can’t have any criticism of the met office it’s sacrilege. It goes against the entire argument from earlier as to why there wasn’t a red. It’s overnight so impacts are less. Deary me. The UKV model was showing similar gusts for that area all day. It’s a joke issuing it at that time. Who the f is going to see that from the general public. They may as well sent out a carrier pigeon at that time.
In very slight defence, they did put the Amber warning on a trajectory that meant it could turn red. But the public probably would not have been away of this.
Is there a case for putting somewhere on a "red watch", a bit like a hurricane watch in the Caribbean? In other words "There's the chance the warning may be upgraded to red". That way, no overcommital from the Met Office, and people get adequate notice.
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55 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
Completely disagree, your statement is too broad, the storm was not severe for a large part of the heavily populated south where the amber was never needed and never should have been issued, not just my or my next door neighbours back garden.
Further north conditions just about warranted the Amber warning, but I’ve still seen very few (I don’t think there were any) official gusts over 75mph for lowland stations away from exposed coasts. Clearly aviation and ferries where affected along with the trains but again this all very temporary and especially on train front their lazy striking staff cause far more disruption than any weather event we’ve seen recently
I maintain my position too many warnings are issued full stop and like yesterday they are often too aggressively worded and too widespread. Fortunately we have very few true life threatening meteorological events in the UK however the number of warning suggests otherwise i maintain that a ‘cry wolf’ situation is in the making where people just won’t prepare for when something truly impactful and devastating comes along.
It was a tough one to call, though? For us on the coast, I'd say there's been many a similar storm with a yellow warning, but I think our coastal areas are better able to deal with a 60mph wind than areas inland, and perhaps an amber warning at 60mph is appropriate away from the coast? In which case, probably the right call just about.
And who would have thought Odiham, 30 miles directly inland from me, would clock 70mph, whilst local coastal stations wouldn't even get to 60mph? It was a strange, patchy storm.
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27 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:
Overall in general this turned out to be the biggest most widespread storm damaging etc in 10 years..
Winds whipped up here at 11pm so the first severe gale of the season..
Heard that 99mph gust over northunberland..
49 gusting upto 77mph just west of here is year a severe gale..
Yes, it was quite something for a storm to be experienced nationwide at the same time.
In the end, the Met Office were closer than the models except maybe in the most northern areas. Certainly my preferred GFS was a bit patchy in its accuracy - yes, a few 65s/70s inland, but not as widely as they'd modelled. The south coast where I am was certainly a bit under, but it was still a useful storm.
A bit over hyped by the media though - the amount of coverage yesterday suggested something like Burns Day was on the cards, but in reality nothing like that was ever in the forecast away from Scotland.
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12 minutes ago, IanT said:
GFS saying 102kph gusts for Cardiff, wildly out of line with the other models.
Latest METAR says gusting 36kts (67kph).
Yet 73mph just up the road at Pembrey...must be getting some protection at Cardiff
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15 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Either there's a delay in this system, or wind speeds are not as strong as forecast for down here..
What are your thoughts for the south coast? I was thinking 50 mph early evening, perhaps scraping 70mph at the peak later in the evening at Portland/St Catherine's Point?
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59 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Pretty much for the entire storm, but in particular central and southern England. It has been downgrading since Friday. To do with increases in the strength of the Iberian high.
I don't know which model you are referring to for this downgrade, though, GFS has been fairly stable for a few days.
Re: AROME high gusts: I saw this model attempt such streaks in the last storm near me, didn't materialize. But one to watch.
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18 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:
Latest 12z GFS is the worst-case scenario for us in the Midlands. Multiple branches down already by the looks of it.
Almost every spot south of Glasgow with a gust above 60 mph
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Hello all, interesting afternoon/evening coming up, I will be watching closely for something I've noticed in recent storms - the accuracy of the GFS in predicting gusts. For the past few storms, I felt it was the only model to absolutely nail the intensity of the wind.
If my theory about the GFS is correct, then 65-70mph gusts may be quite commonplace between the M4 and southern Scotland this evening regardless of inland/coastal (which is an increase of about 10mph on the Met Office warning), with 80-85mph possible on exposed coasts in the North West.
It is here in the North West that I think a red warning may be possible, touch and go though and of course Sunday evening isn't the most active of times so that might prevent the red warning.
I was a little surprised the Met Office didn't just blanket the whole of England in an orange warning, seems it could be quite stormy anywhere.
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Re: the weekend's storms - I trust the GFS more than any other model on wind strength, but only within T72.
It's interesting that as the Sunday event moves to within this timeframe, the GFS has watered it down slightly to probably yellow warning territory.
The new Monday event now looks the more serious on the GFS, but that's still T96, where anything still goes on this particular model.
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3 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
You actually can’t make this up and if you’d said this would actually happen in the model thread 5days ago you’d have been laughed off the site!
Conditions would have been perfect with this 50miles further north. No way there’s a better setup for this locations this year.
Sadly this is becoming an annual event. How many times have we seen a potential major snowfall miss the south coast by 20 miles? Got to be 4 or 5 times in recent years. So much want my kids to see a proper snowfall without having to go to Lapland!
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Oh, remember that snow area for the south on Wednesday? Well, the ECM ensembles finally dropped it tonight - only about 10% of members good for a covering in the far south, down from 35% last night.
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The ICON accumulated precipitation chart up to Saturday is a bit of slap in the face for snow lovers in central and southern areas - precipitation virtually everywhere in the Atlantic and Europe apart from here!
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5013129-
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The ICON accumulated precipitation chart up to Saturday is a bit of slap in the face for snow lovers in central and southern areas - precipitation virtually everywhere in the Atlantic and Europe apart from here!
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3 minutes ago, snowblind said:
Would be interesting to know how many were showing the snow heading into France when the ops were keen on disruptive snow getting up as far as the midlands.
There was a point about 4 days ago when nearly no ensembles took the snow into France, and several took it to Manchester - I remember looking.
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8 minutes ago, sunnijim said:
As a child I rember an 80s cold spell, there was snow on the ground.
Roads had been cleared.
Unforecast snowfall headed up from France and we got stuck in Tesco.
It was either Mr Giles or Mr Fish that got it in the neck from my Dad
It is these sorts of memories that give you hope in this situation.
It was certainly an event that was supposed to have stayed on the other side of the Channel
There's plenty of it this Wednesday, up to a 50mm fall just 100 miles away on some forecasts!
(though may not all be snow for whoever hits the bullseye)
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1 hour ago, Stephen W said:
I don’t think I was quite expecting such an exceptionally mild looking set of charts to appear in the model output as is currently showing for next week. And there is nothing indicating at the moment that won’t be for an extended period, ie 10 days + (waxing and waning a bit). I take note and value those more knowledgeable members who are confident of a more blocked and cold pattern re-emerging end Jan into Feb. I do hope we get something of more note than this upcoming week before winter is out. At the moment, I’m looking at these charts and thinking they look all too familiar (not favourable to coldies) despite the favourable background signals that many have been discussing.
Still, we should enjoy the short lived cold spell this week and the break from all that rain and some will no doubt be posting some wonderful winter photos that many of us will, sadly, have to enjoy vicariously.
This is not aimed at you - it just follows on from your post - but I am quite surprised at the "surprise" that the cold will likely relent after the weekend. Was there ever an ensemble set suggesting differently?
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Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Might need to change the title of this thread to Winter and Spring post mortem!
The ultimate in winter/spring nightmare combos currently in the models - perfect winter synoptics occurring at the first possible moment where they probably won't deliver.