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Man Without Beard

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Everything posted by Man Without Beard

  1. Just how much will it drop? Probably not much if tonight's runs are correct!
  2. ECM 12Z ... autumn just can't get started, can it! Temperatures remaining in the 70sF throughout, September down here on the south coast will easily have been better than August as a summer month if tonight's run comes off.
  3. Quite a common theme on the ECM, this deep low to the NW? May well knock temperatures down to the low-mid teens by the end of the month. Will feel a bit chilly at night!
  4. From the ridiculous to the sublime on ECM, compared with 24 hours ago. Now forecasting a heatwave all next week with temps in the high 20s, not far away from 30C early on.
  5. Hi all, I'd noted the ensembles for next week have been far better than recent op runs but I wasn't expecting this to suddenly appear for next Tuesday
  6. This morning's ECM now going for 183mph gusts at landfall. Mean speed between 132-135mph.
  7. Good call! I'm seeing nothing but positives for the final third of August, whether ops or ensembles.
  8. An imminent hot spell looks off, but it was never certain on the ensembles. The settled spell D8 onwards seems more credible but heat not guaranteed, depends on the flow.
  9. Really good clusters again - in 3 of the 5 clusters, well positioned for a UK high, or slightly east, with a continental surface flow. Second half of August certainly has promise, for once
  10. I'm liking the look of the longer term ECM clusters. Might be an increasingly settled end of the month coming up - the closer the oranges are to the UK, the better the chance of above average heights
  11. Aside the increasingly promising outlook for the UK next week, according to the ECM this morning, the ECM is also forecasting a serious attempt on the European temperature record, with 48C modelled around Seville this weekend.
  12. Looking at the individual ECM ensembles at D8 brought me back down to earth a little. The stalling trough to the west is probably a little more likely than other scenarios, but only just. Could still end up with a north westerly after D7, or another UK low. But the trends are good.
  13. Best ECM of the summer this morning, some hot weather if this comes off:
  14. Definitely a good chance of a NW/SE split developing from midweek onwards, might be a pattern change coming just in time to save summer for England/Wales
  15. Just catching up with clusters - definite signs of an improvement by D8, the ECM op was actually one of the most pessimistic for the timescale: Some sort of mini-trough around by mid August, could spoil the party. Just can't get the heights up for any length of time over Europe!
  16. I'm starting to see a potential lifting of the pattern around 12th August, as a pulse from the Azores High looks to push a bit further north. Looking at individual clusters, I feel it may only be enough to rescue southern areas into something more summery, but the clusters show at least a fighting chance of something better for all by the 15th.
  17. I see some saying summer hasn't been too bad for them, but aside that 8 day heatwave, it has been absolutely filthy on the south coast. Worst since 2012, and if this pattern doesn't break soon, it might even be worse than that. An out and out dreadful year, virtually nil snow despite more easterlies than ever, springless spring and now this.
  18. Scilly Isles currently mean 54mph gusting 69mph. Nasty for July.
  19. This is the current situation. It's forecast to weaken a bit before landfall, they'd better hope they've got that right because it's nearly a hurricane strength storm at the moment
  20. There's not a lot more to add here, it's clear we're unlikely to see settled hot weather within the next 14 days, and possibly even 21 days. Last week's heatwave may well have been "the" heatwave. However, it's easy to go over the top. It's the height of summer; it won't be that bad. It won't be wall to wall rain; NWlies in particular tend to have dry slots (think winter when your eyes water at a NWly only for no snow to arrive and blue skies). If you have a holiday in mind, i would avoid Wales, the Lakes and Scotland, but pleasant weather on 4/5 days out of 7 will probably be found on the south coast from Dartmoor east, and up Eastern England if a north sea trough stays far away and the winds are west of north. And, with the time of year, temperatures comfortably in the 20s in drier slots.
  21. Wait, hotter than July 2013? That heatwave nearly lasted 3 weeks!
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