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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 16 2023

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  1. GFS 12Z keeps the low running up the channel. Likely that it will correct south into France as channel lows tend to do in winter... ... strike that - since it's just about too warm for snow, instead it's going to be a bullseye hit for the south with copious amounts of rain. This really has been the mother of disappointing winters.
  2. Lukesluckybunch This is a great position to be in. I do feel good about a potential snow situation the week after the coming one - in recent years, models have underdone the speed of everything coming from the east at D8 when accompanied by northern blocking, so I would place my money on the easterly gaining momentum in the coming days, not losing it.
  3. minus10 No surprise to me. I'm getting to the stage where I'm considering March to be my main winter month! February has brought close to zero snow even falling from the sky in the past 20 years on the south coast, apart from the last couple of days in 2018. March probably sees snow falling 1 in 2 years here, and 3 good coverings since 2013. The frustration, of course, is that although we often get excellent synoptics in March, they'd be so much more wintry in January! Dare I say there's been many a year recently where the March synoptics rivalled January 1947 or 1963 synoptics in terms of wintry potential (2013 stands out), but the depth of cold of course was capped by the increase in solar strength and daylight hours!
  4. Having had a "busy" life period recently I've been away from the forum for a while, and so I've just been catching up ... great thread! I think one thing to add (probably has been but I'm only on page 2) ... I think there's a lack of appreciation that global signals are very difficult to correlate to "is it going to snow north or south of the M4"? Global signals are only every starting point relating to a general area of the globe. They're never a guarantee of the end result for a specific location. I hear Scandinavia has experienced a very cold winter. Doesn't that suggest it could have been us but for a little tweaking? As much as science feels as if it should be perfect, and there's a craving for solutions as perfect as maths, we're just not there yet when it comes to scientific explanation, whether meteorology, or other stuff like the origins of the human race.
  5. Pretty spectacular capitulation on ECM ensembles in the past 48 hours wrt to Scandi/Sceuro high for the 16th February being completely tossed out - the mean was up to 1035mb at one point but has now been replaced by a Scandi low! Thankfully for nerves on here it never looked right for UK wintry weather anyway. Perhaps the lesson is that the models are struggling big-time at the moment over something, and possibly more changes to come?
  6. Bit further ahead ... a really interesting chart here from the ECM ensembles 00Z, which shows virtual non-existence of westerly winds for London after about D8 until D15:
  7. IDO The period 15-20 February looks rather interesting. Consistent signals for a massive departure from the norm.
  8. A wide variety of snow options by Thursday on the GEFS, and that nagging thought that these set-ups often correct south between T120 and T72?
  9. In very slight defence, they did put the Amber warning on a trajectory that meant it could turn red. But the public probably would not have been away of this. Is there a case for putting somewhere on a "red watch", a bit like a hurricane watch in the Caribbean? In other words "There's the chance the warning may be upgraded to red". That way, no overcommital from the Met Office, and people get adequate notice.
  10. It was a tough one to call, though? For us on the coast, I'd say there's been many a similar storm with a yellow warning, but I think our coastal areas are better able to deal with a 60mph wind than areas inland, and perhaps an amber warning at 60mph is appropriate away from the coast? In which case, probably the right call just about. And who would have thought Odiham, 30 miles directly inland from me, would clock 70mph, whilst local coastal stations wouldn't even get to 60mph? It was a strange, patchy storm.
  11. Yes, it was quite something for a storm to be experienced nationwide at the same time. In the end, the Met Office were closer than the models except maybe in the most northern areas. Certainly my preferred GFS was a bit patchy in its accuracy - yes, a few 65s/70s inland, but not as widely as they'd modelled. The south coast where I am was certainly a bit under, but it was still a useful storm. A bit over hyped by the media though - the amount of coverage yesterday suggested something like Burns Day was on the cards, but in reality nothing like that was ever in the forecast away from Scotland.
  12. Yet 73mph just up the road at Pembrey...must be getting some protection at Cardiff
  13. What are your thoughts for the south coast? I was thinking 50 mph early evening, perhaps scraping 70mph at the peak later in the evening at Portland/St Catherine's Point?
  14. I don't know which model you are referring to for this downgrade, though, GFS has been fairly stable for a few days. Re: AROME high gusts: I saw this model attempt such streaks in the last storm near me, didn't materialize. But one to watch.
  15. Almost every spot south of Glasgow with a gust above 60 mph
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