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Man Without Beard

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Man Without Beard last won the day on August 4 2020

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    Drayton, Portsmouth

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  1. We often talk about FI being early in runs, but I can't remember it ever being earlier. A situation where fronts push with a negative tilt from the SW is always prone to error, and we have 3 of them coming up in row this week. GEFS ensembles at T120: Meteociel - Panel GEFS WWW.METEOCIEL.FR pretty similar to ECM ensembles at the same time. There's going to be some forecasting chaos for this coming Saturday as a low pressure tries to go rogue and slip under the main troughs to the north. How this works out is very messy. A lot of ensembles, particula
  2. Ecm clusters D8-D10 pretty good agreement now on a trough into central Europe which should advect colder air back through the UK. Troughs lining up to approach the UK afterwards - what transpires will probably depend on how much cold air is in front of them. More snow/rain lines to be drawn (hopefully not 5 miles north of my house this time!)
  3. I'm 5 miles from the sea in Fareham and it's a snow/rain event so far - when the intensity is good it snows, but rain otherwise. Bodes well for those a little further inland.
  4. No - turns back to rain whenever the intensity drops off. So close. But glad many a bit further inland are enjoying the real thing.
  5. Don't quote me on this, but I think it's trying to settle on the grass here in Fareham, just 5 miles from the sea
  6. Fareham ... the soothing, relaxing, reassuring sound of ... rain. Heavy too. Second time this winter with rain at a few point below freezing (well it's 0.2C now but wasn't at the beginning)
  7. Apologies to northerners for so much imby tonight but, hey, this might the one shot at glory for some southerners this winter * Tomorrow's snow is a serious nowcasts. That front is doing many things as we speak that many short range models have not picked up on. ECM I believe is closest so far, amazing really as it's been very consistent for 4 days. *I don't believe it will be the last chance. Early Feb has the feel of being a classic. Just my interpretation of where the models are going 😉
  8. At D8, about 70% of the ECM ensembles have low pressure going underneath higher pressure to the NE (mainly weak ridges), and not many runs at all getting the 0C uppers line through the SW. Looks like next weekend will, again, have wintry potential for many areas. Control run is the leading mongral with a ridiculous amount of snow to start February. Certainly has a SSW feel to it - Atlantic keeps looking like it might take over in our latitudes but lacks the energy to do so.
  9. Ecm clusters d12 - not bad for cold, and probably a bit dryer for that matter - but really must have a strong trough anomaly over central Europe (like cluster 2) if you're after deep cold
  10. The D11-D15 didn't really float my boat, actually - the main cluster looks like a continuation of D6-D10, which is a thin wedge of low pressure straddling the UK and not quite south enough. That said, I guess cluster 2 and 4 are decent for a northerly, and, combined, it would nearly be as big a cluster as the main one. Inconclusive - that was the word I was after 🙂
  11. I think we got a little one D8-D10. Jet further south, cold creeping back down.
  12. Just thought I'd add - haven't the models done well with this spell? They predicted a good Greenland ridge 10 or so days ago, but not a great one - and now they've been pretty close to the mark with the transition back to the Atlantic. No massive SSW issues!
  13. The models have really kept us guessing about next week, and it's not getting easier - the cold/mild boundary still very much up for grabs, especially for northern areas. In the meantime, models starting to firm up on some snow events further south this weekend - a number of areas yet to see snow this winter in the frame. Below is ARPEGE - it is in good agreement with AROME, my choice for best performing short term model of the year, for the next 48 hours
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