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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 28 2018

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    Drayton, Portsmouth

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  1. Quite remarkable mild on both GFS/ECM tonight - possibility of several days in a row reaching 14-15c quite widely at the end of next week.
  2. Yes - February might be over, but chances of winter weather cling on into February whilst that deep cold hangs around to the NE
  3. Well I have better news than yesterday for coldies. Chances of a -NAO on the clusters are up from 0/51 yesterday to 2/51 today! Even so, they look west based... For those wanting early spring (maybe there are some in here?!?), prospects continue to look fairly good until the end of the month
  4. I'm still not prepared to go that far, as a 500 mile error with the centre of the high by D11-D15 could make a substantial difference, and it would be foolhardy to think this is not still an option. However, as you know Knocker, I am a realist, and I did take note of the fact there were no cold runs at all for London on this morning's extended eps so, leaving aside the cold bias of winter, the real interest in the forthcoming 2 weeks is just how mild it might become. As the chart shows, the clustering towards 14C gets quite notable in the last week of February - as this chart shows 12pm temperatures rather than actual maximums, you could argue there will be a number of runs maxing up to 16/17C within that cluster. 19.7C is the all time UK record for February - that would be a bit too extraordinary I think - but a top ten CET month may well be possible.
  5. Clusters tonight... all the way to D12 - rock solid Sceuro high - not necessarily mild but miles away from snow for the UK, probably awesome for Greece. Would signal an extreme heatwave if in July.
  6. And I can well understand if you are worried about the cold crowd throwing virtual tomatoes at you! Between D10 and D15, most ECM members prefer to maintain a strong high pressure cell not very far from Germany, and as Knocker says in his previous post, the UK remains in "no man's land" - not particularly under threat from the Atlantic, nor at risk from the east. The question will be whether the UK engages a pure southerly flow and spring-like conditions, or a slightly continental flow that maintains a chill - though by the last week of February, the cooling influence of the continent will be starting to wane and a continental flow without easterly reinforcements will more likely maintain daily temperatures without boosting or suppressing them - perhaps a slight drop but no cold pool development. Naturally there are members that drift away from this exact scenario by D15, so impossible to say the high won't drift sufficiently north for a cold NEly, or that it won't drift sufficiently south for a return to wet Atlantic weather - but the signs are relatively strong for the status quo. Chances of lowland snow during the rest of February = less than 20% (IMO)
  7. Evening all... when an attempt at a Scandi High just fails, it often leads to the worst possible situation of all for coldies as it also means low pressure cannot get though the UK to allow northern sourced air from the other side. In all truth, this is the usual fate of a predicted Scandi High when it is initiated from the SW against an active Atlantic. Such set ups usually fail. The Scandis that usually work come from either the Arctic or from a Mid-Atlantic ridge. Lessons, lessons!
  8. Not impossible either but I'm guessing a fly in the ointment has to appear at some time.
  9. A finish in the 5Cs already looking a very good bet.
  10. For the mild/cold balance, those positive Euro height anomalies would pretty much shut the door on anything substantially cold until the very end of the month at least.
  11. Too soon to be calling the D6-D10 period! We have a growing block to the east. We are expecting a trough to disrupt in the face of that block. We know from experience that the ECM will often find the final solution in such circumstances as late as D5, and the other models even later. Yes changes may reinforce the mild pattern - but - there's a very small margin between mild southerlies and an ever cooling continental drift (just about still at this time of year). There may be some changes tomorrow and I wonder if the GFSP will be the leader here will a cold pool travelling our way.
  12. Well, I go away for two days and some very minor adjustments on the ECM turn all the colder air for the end of next week to mild!! Though actually quite frosty next weekend on the raw output, followed by a very swift temperature rise to double figures - impressive rises for only mid-February! I'd caution being too pessimistic after T168. Next week's block gets further north than the usual "euroslug". If Atlantic energy splits differently to the current forecast between D6-D8, there could still be a standoff between east and west resulting in the block being nudged further north. We're still dealing with fine lines. Coldies have got less lucky with the D4-D7 period on these fine lines (pressure building just a few hundred miles further north could have kept the feed purely continental), but regardless of ensemble data, we aren't far away from the block sticking rather than flattening.
  13. Clusters 00z - the ECM op is least amplified towards Scandi by T156 but it does have support Reasonable support for a move NW-wards of the ridge by D10 Some runs getting the ridge to Greenland by D13 but others have it stuck closer to the UK
  14. The progression of the ECM this week has been absolutely typical of how the model often behaves. Studying the last 4 morning's 00Z runs for 11th February: The big picture is the same, but look at the low over the SE of England on the T144 chart. By T72, we now have a low over Germany. Also note heights to the west of Portugal have now reached Portugal. In other words, a tiny global shift to the east. In the upcoming pattern, with a block just to the east, there is such a fine line between a continental draw and an Atlantic draw - just a few hundred miles in positioning. Shifts like these may only have a small effect on where blocking ends up, but these small differences will make fairly decent differences in the expected temperatures by the end of next week.
  15. D12 - top two clusters (that's 80% of the runs) so so close to a snowy freeze - still wriggle room enough to avoid it though.