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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 28

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    Drayton, Portsmouth

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  1. Awesome start to the day here. Blue skies and feeling warm in the sun. Min 12.5C, currently 14.7C, rising quickly.
  2. a good reason to be suspicious of long term trends to a cooler pattern until closer to, say, D5/D6
  3. So picking up on this possible switch to colder conditions at the end of the month. A couple of days ago, this switch was advertised as due between 22nd October and 27th October, with heights retreating west and troughing becoming established to the NE. If we look at today's clusters for the 25th October: we see that low heights to the east is still on, but heights to the west look a bit closer to the UK. However, by the 27th: the general trend of heights withdrawing west is still there. And by the end of the month: heights well out of the way, troughing to the NE = lots of possibilities for a NWly or Nly input as November begins. So the cool-down still showing on the ensembles - but - slightly delayed. The "delay" word is a worry for early-season coldies, because a "delayed" pattern change can either mean exactly that, or it sometimes means a general misreading of the situation by the models, and in fact the 25th October chart could be repeated once again. Time will tell!
  4. That high needs watching for D10. Further west, cold from the north could get in. Further east, fog becomes a threat and depressed daytime temps. Right where it is, a streak of temporary warmth can sneak in.
  5. Man With Beard

    Autumn 2018

    What a funny country we can be. Just been outside to pick up the washing in a light t-shirt, and briefly considered sitting on the patio with a beer, it's that warm here, and it's not even fully cloudy. Enjoy your snow when it comes!
  6. I know we normally look forward on here, but I just want to give a shout-out to the GFS. It's often mocked in here, but it pretty much nailed the warmth of this week from way out. Virtually every single one of its runs since T336 had this period in the low to mid 20s. Hats off!
  7. Man With Beard

    Autumn 2018

    Yes I was thinking that earlier. Almost exactly the same position of the sun as on the day where many places did not exceed minus 4C - a 30C difference! We've been particularly lucky in the Solent region today with it being mostly sunny since 12pm, too, 22C air temperature here but feeling hot in the sun.
  8. Yes! Mildenhall now an incredible 26C. Still an hour or two to go higher!
  9. Man With Beard

    Autumn 2018

    Up to 24C in East Anglia already. Going to be interesting seeing how far up the scale we can go today. Must be a chance of the latest recorded 80F this afternoon. Sun coming out here on S coast now - which bodes well for inland areas later.
  10. ah, didn't know that, thank you!
  11. Any chance of a 19C or 20C CET day? Many stations had a minima of 18C or more, quite widely.
  12. Would expect so. St James Park appears to have gone no lower than 19.8. All change for the final third of the month though, ensembles continue to pull heights back into the Atlantic, much cooler air stream, though not Arctic by any means
  13. Man With Beard

    Autumn 2018

    St James Park seems to have recorded a minimum of 19.8C - if so, it would have been the mildest October night on record.
  14. Big change coming according to EC mid-range ensembles this morning - note how the purples (and therefore likely position of troughing) transfer from west to east between 21st October and 26th October: Gate to cooler weather opened!
  15. Man With Beard

    Hurricane Michael