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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 5 2016

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  1. I'm out this morning - feel free to post today or any time!!
  2. Thanks @Paul, we must remember this is the UK, you are not going to get the same model run day after day from 10 days out! No issues with the forecast today. Still mainly hot and sunny till D8 at least. Yesterday's ops were nearer the top end of the spread for heat, this morning's perhaps on the lower side after D7. D10-D15 still veering towards warm/settled, though of course a northerly/easterly element could get in during a high pressure dominant situation.
  3. If we are watching records next week, Ireland may be the place. ECM op has it getting to 31C there later next week. All time record just 33C. As for the UK mainland, the uppers vary day to day after D4 but the temperatures seem unaffected - they just keep going up day by day. Next weekend particularly hot, well into the 30s in the SE I'd guess. The level of heat next week will only be tempered if a stronger flow of the N Sea develops, unlikely but still possible.
  4. Not quite as simples as that but in clear skies, light winds, continental draw, dry ground, build up of heat, height of summer... 28-35C would cover the range of maxes available.
  5. What's interesting for me this evening - we were hypothesising this morning what would need to happen for a June 1976 repeat to happen - this GFS was going that way until low res...
  6. It's important to mention that the ECM temperatures on weather.us are usually down as much as 3C on actuals - today a good case in point, most places already 1-2C up on the predicted maximums, with two hours of heating still to go. I think this morning's ECM, if verified of course, would mean 5 days at 30C or a bit above in places.
  7. EC clusters again favouring a continuation of positive height anomalies all the way to D15
  8. If that ridge in the Atlantic can push over the top of the Iberia trough and join the high to our east, the 2018 chart could actually end up better for heat than the 1976 one - not only do we have the high pressure now, but 1976 did not have a low to the SW pumping heat up from the south. I must stress, this is not a forecast - 1976 style conditions need a near perfect scenario. All I'm saying is that we are currently much much closer to this "perfection" than we have been at any time since 2003. As things stand, I'd give the current pattern a 25% chance for 10 successive days above 30C somewhere.
  9. It's not out of the question according to last night's clusters - red areas indicating where the positive height anomalies will be (this is D15) - and they really haven't been showing anything substantially different for days. This is a staggering D10 mean for upper temps: though I would caution, looking at the individual ensembles, there is a bit of a split between members following the op run (very hot even at D10) and those that have broken the heat slightly by that stage.
  10. ECM is really, really good for next week. Hot - and settled too.
  11. GFS 12z is a genuine possibility if you ask me. Quite plausible that the Iberian low will push NE and join the low to the E. Next week would remain high 20s but starting to cool down in the east next weekend. Probably a temporary blip. ... Or the UKMO, another plausible outcome, keeping it settled for longer and hotter too. Not really possible to choose between the two beyond T144. Plenty of good weather to enjoy before then anyway.
  12. I'm not sure about that - based on the experience that GFS maximums are often 2-3C undercooked, I could see at least 4 days next week between 27C and 30C on the GFS 06Z op.
  13. You may have just opened up the old debate about "what constitutes a heatwave"! For the last week in June, I think this will do for very settled and warm/hot: No real way out from a very warm outcome there. The 582 line / positive height anomalies still very close or over us by D15 on all clusters. Doesn't look like a return to Atlantic driven weather for quite some time. Short-term breakdowns from the SW probably the only option for rain, if there is one (just maybe some fronts into the NW):
  14. In general yes, I think this is the way the models have gone in the last 24 hours - consensus is building around a week of high 20Cs (maybe a 30C), so still in the "heatwave" category for me but nothing record breaking. The EC clusters dropped the "plume" cluster last night (you'd expect heights directly to our E or SE, with lower heights SW): Although looking at the EC ensemble members on weather.us, I think it may have revived that cluster this morning. And just something in the back of my head - models always seem content to show cut-off lows over Biscay/Iberia as stable in the T144-T240 period, but I feel 8 times out of 10 they become less stable once you hit T72-T120 and want to head NE - so I would not be surprised at all to see that low to our SW eventually try to push NE a bit more, probably by D9/D10 - which would either mean a link up with troughing to the east and stronger easterly flow for the UK (still mainly settled), or if the link up did not happen, it would encourage a plume followed by a thundery breakdown. Just my guessing at this stage. Anyway, main headline remains warm or hot next week with spells of sunshine.
  15. Looking at ECM individual ensembles on weather.us, still set pretty well until 29th but the sense of model chaos from about 30th June has grown even further from this morning. High pressure generally losing its grip at this point. But with heat probably already in the UK, some very interesting possibilities from plumes to thundery washouts - or perhaps a new Azores ridge moving in. Being still at D10, though, not worthy of more than a 'watch' for now.
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