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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 28

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    Drayton, Portsmouth

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  1. Looking at this again, I've changed my mind a little. I'm guessing a trough might sneak through the Greenland area on clusters 1 and 2 at D8
  2. Clusters this morning: if there's going to be a cold snap during the Christmas period, the ECM ensembles suggest it will be earlier in the period rather than later (if at all, of course). By the 23rd, we see positive height anomalies in the Atlantic to our west, and clusters 1/3 look promising for getting a northerly flow down into the Atlantic shortly after (level of amplitude to be decided). The key for the UK is getting the trough to push east, as the FV3 is currently doing, but the ECM op is reluctant to do. However, after Christmas day, the clusters are not overly interested in cold, as ridging tends to move from favourable spots (control cluster perhaps excepted)
  3. FV3 still with an Atlantic ridge before Christmas, though a little more muted
  4. This is exactly the pattern that the EC clusters have been hinting at for a while (with a sprinkling of my own logical interpretation ). We're now into the "will there be a white Christmas or not" territory, and for once, we are in the game (imo). My main concern is the EC op persisting with heights to the east. Good heights east + rising heights west = possibility of being stuck on the wrong side of the trough in the middle. Or, dare I dream, could the two areas of heights link over the top to the north, sinking our trough into Europe? That would be the jackpot. I have this feeling that model watching will be quite exciting in the next 72 hours!
  5. Oh you tease ECM - so many routes to cold on these charts, and yet the risk that the UK gets stuck between ridges too but that control run looks ready to explode with cold, doesn't it - ridging from Scandi back into the N Atlantic!
  6. EC Clusters - fascinating position to be in for 24th December: Suggestions of ridging out west on all, and cluster 1 close to Scandi High territory. Potential routes to cold on all, especially clusters 1 and 2. The wintry flavour doesn't last though. By 28th December, it's either UK high or flat Atlantic:
  7. Height rises around Greenland usually equal fun a little later on
  8. Can't quite get this idea of heights to the NW 20th-24th Dec to take off ... yet. Looked encouraging last night, but a bit more on the fence this morning: Clusters 1 and 2 looking rather flat there, with a tendency to deeper lows closer to the UK (wet/windy). It's a bit up and down at the moment. I'm happy to wait a bit longer.
  9. Aaaahhhh... that's better. A decent ridge developing in the N Atlantic by D11, threatening Greenland. Clusters 1/2. Where next?
  10. The FV3 returns to a short sharp snow event for many on Saturday night: (But I wonder if the main event of the weekend will really be this - storms) Onto this morning's ECM clusters, probably very unsettled by 19th December But that Canadian ridge appearing again by the 21st, I still feel this could produce a colder type of WNWly / NWly for the UK a day or so after this: And by the 23rd, that ridge is starting to make its way into the N Atlantic (flattened slightly), and certainly more orange than blue close to Greenland - note the trough anomalies are starting to push east away from the mid-Atlantic, too. It's not screaming cold from any direction, but clusters 2, 3 and 4 leave you wondering if a temporary phase of colder air could get to the UK shores around Christmas time. My (very) early wager is on a white Christmas for northern hills and perhaps Scotland - the most obvious places for snow when NWly elements come into play.
  11. Some turnaround by the parallel. We've seen this week that it still isn't quite at the level of the ECM on this kind of trough disruption.
  12. A real dog's dinner by D10. But with height anomalies either in the NE or in the NW, and trough anomalies generally either at our latitude or further south, you'd have to think some kind of higher level ridging will again emerge in the op runs during the coming days.
  13. Had been hoping to see a northerly flavor develop between 20th and 25th but have to be honest - no discernable signal developing yet :
  14. For those wanting snow, I'd be looking for a compromise between the GFS and the others tonight. A halfway house needed for maximum snow event on Thursday / Friday (even if it means a quicker breakdown)
  15. Still lots of variation on the clusters as early as Friday