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Man With Beard

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  1. Finally feeling more confident about a cracking bank holiday after seeing this morning's ECM - I haven't much experience of ECM raw data vs actual at this stage is summer, but with raw temps 28/29C by the latter stage of the bank holiday, I'd be thinking just above 30C somewhere on any of Sunday, Monday or Tuesday? I think that might count as heatwave quality weather
  2. Again! Bizarre year. All months from February onwards: big warm up in the final third of the month.
  3. EC clusters: Improvements start to kick by around 22nd August. Larger improvements likely by 25th August. Becoming a theme on the clusters: Maybe we can squeak out a little more summer before time is up.
  4. ECM ensembles last night suggesting some improvements between 21st and 26th August but certainly not worth counting chickens yet
  5. You may be recalling a different year ... last year's maxes from Aug 1 to Aug 7 were 27c, 31c, 33c, 29c, 30c, 32c and 33c.
  6. Quite fascinating that the CET is only a degree or so lower than at the same stage last year, when we were still in full-blown heatwave mode. Still that month managed to get back to average by the end, so little chance of this month being any better on current charts.
  7. Even by the standards of recent Augusts, this has been a tiresome model watching period for those seeking something summery before the schools go back. Right out to T360 on the clusters, we gave a negative anomaly to our NE which suggests a high tendency for low pressures to attack the UK right out to the end of the period. Hopes of an improvement to more settled weather 30% at best. Best in the south, as is usually the case in such set-ups. Might favour sunny wind-facing coasts with downpours just inland, as was the case round here yesterday,
  8. Any hopes of more settled weather for the final 3rd of August? Long way out, but the clusters rate the chances are fairly low, especially further north.
  9. This morning's ECM op is a true video nasty - the Atlantic lows are not merely threatening anymore, they are ganging up on us. As CS mentions above, a new explosive low is magic'd up for early next week in the southern half of the UK (gusting close to 80mph in the channel) - could come to nothing, but a worry. If you have a camping trip planned from this Saturday onwards and you can cancel it, think long and hard!
  10. Taken me by surprise this one. Normally it gives up by July but the heatwave really beefed it up again. Of course it's much easier for it to form in the summer months than in the winter months.
  11. Just what is it with Augusts and this decade? If recent ECM ensemble clusters are close to the money, most of this one will be pretty unsettled. Last night's D12 and D15 charts - enough agreement there to think any settled weather will be a surprise - could possible fluke a better period in the far south I suppose:
  12. A lot of people are getting good at this - I'm only 0.6C out but I'll be barely above halfway - well done to those who got it spot on!
  13. Did we also break the minimum temperature record last week? Looking at Brogdale's temperatures for last 25th/26th July (it still has the "MetOffice" logo on its WoW webpage so assuming it remains an official reporting station), the station reported a maximum of 38.4C (impressive!) and a minimum of 24.3C. The previous record was 23.9C. For the details, see http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/view?&reportId=8082001&siteID=25668314, and use the tables tab to find the data.
  14. The situation between now and D6 is close to being settled: With a trough almost stalled in the Atlantic for several days, the UK will be on the warmer side between now and then with a WSW or SW flow predominant, and temperatures in the afternoon widely low 20s through the weekend and early next week, mid 20s further south with possibility of 26-28C as the max in the SE corner by Sunday/Monday. Not a bad start to August. However, with the lack of high pressure close by, it is unlikely to be completely dry even after today's rain in the midlands/north - showers look possible on any day - though occasional rather than organised and unlikely to spoil a good day out. In the 24 hours from the charts above (Tuesday/Wednesday), the weather is forecast to gradually become more unsettled from NW eventually through to the SE. Given the slow movement of the trough, I wouldn't take this as an absolute certainty - this prognosis seems reliant on a few other things such as the intensity of the trough to the NE being modelled correctly and heights in Europe failing to build on the E flank of the Atlantic low. So although the second half of next week looks more unsettled, I'd hold fire before writing the period off, especially in the south where a small pulse of extra heights into Europe could divert the worst of the frontal activity. It's a rather odd period, just as it has been a rather odd summer - dominated by heights to the north, but the almost complete lack of ability of heights to form in the Eastern Atlantic has meant the colder air up north has only occasionally managed to influence our shores - normally with northern heights, even the simplest of ridges forming in the Atlantic would provide a trigger to pull colder air south. The coming 7 days are perhaps the best example of all - strong northern heights, yet still slightly above average over the UK. And the clusters this morning suggest this may well continue into week 2 of the analysis, here's D11 and D15: Same old same old ... strong heights NW, troughing mostly stuck ever so slightly to our west, hints of ridging over Europe - the UK again in the warmer sandwich of a WSW or SW flow with occasional Atlantic incursions but no knockout blow particularly further S and E, where another of the well above average periods cannot be ruled out.
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