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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 5 2016

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  1. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    It's been a Leicester City type title defence by me this year but after seeing the latest GFS I'm liking my chances for this month - 8C could get close now
  2. Looking closely at the GFS 06Z, it suggests that 15C could be reached somewhere every day next week. I commented 36 hours ago that "the GFS is almost never completely wrong". Well it was more than wrong this time - it's now gone back to the other models and beyond!
  3. On the individual EC members this morning, we at last have agreement on the shortwave with all 51 members successfully getting the first two Atlantic troughs through to the UK - and therefore the risk of cold getting to the south is low (still knife-edge in the far north). Perhaps 10-15% of members cause enough separation in the Atlantic by D8/D9 to allow a temporary back-edge northerly ... but of course that means 80-90% don't. West based -NAO it is, then.
  4. EC46 has done very well this month to be fair ... except with regards to euro heights.
  5. Funny, from looking at that you'd have thought something cold would come out of the ECM op run. So, so close:
  6. EC ensembles continued - funnily, there's more agreement later in the runs - the low pressure areas after the initial shortwave all seem to get developed, don't disrupt, and eventually cross the Atlantic by D8, generally centred through Scotland. Only about 10% of runs keep anywhere cold by this time apart from the far north, and instead rain (and maybe strong winds) is more of a concern. Will these follow-up lows really behave in such an orderly way??
  7. Just flicking through the EC ensembles on weather.us, now out to about T82 and it's already complete carnage over that shortwave. The ensembles are clueless. We have pressure readings for NW Scotland anywhere from 996mb up to 1028mb - and there is no obvious common position between the two.
  8. Mild one today. 14.4C and sunny at the moment.
  9. Slack pressure in the atlantic, random shortwaves meandering, ensemble scatter ... does this feel like one of those moments when the UKMO will suddenly come up with something completely new at T120 and all the other models will gradually fall behind it? That's my little wager today.
  10. It would be a very different chart for Glasgow - a lot more colder runs for the north - but most members couldn't quite push the cold out of the south.
  11. Fascinating model watching again and fascinating EC clusters this morning. Yesterday's EC clusters didn't really give cold a sniff but this morning the colder options are back. First T156: Note the op run has the weakest block to the NW ... and is also the outlier, in a cluster of just 6 out of 51. Cluster 2 looks primed for a northerly, clusters 3/4 surely represent the many runs I saw that push low pressure slowly through the UK from N to S, and the control run cluster seems to be a middle ground. Heights still high over Europe at this stage until... T168: You can see the slow southward movement of the trough on clusters 3 and 4, winter has already started on cluster 2, the control cluster is still a bit stuck between heights north and south, and the op cluster is on a different planet (though it ought to be given extra weighting because of its higher resolution) At T192 we have a new set of clusters - it seems that some runs from clusters 3 and 4 failed to push troughing through the south and join the control run in cluster 1 (I'm guessing this will now be a blend of runs that now have low pressure through the UK, but with various centres between north and south, so some would still put the north on the cold side) - a few made the jump and join our "winter" cluster 2, and the op cluster, which has added a few members now, is still more interested in BBQs or a flood than snow. All-in-all total nightmare of a forecast - the best bet from these, IMO, is the UK being the dividing point between cold to the north and mild to the south.
  12. Perhaps 30-40% of this morning's ECM ensembles are of great interest to coldies by T162 - there's going to be a decent sized cluster of runs that clear low pressure through the channel with pressure rising to the north.
  13. Oh alright then. D8. I suppose cluster 3 could go somewhere
  14. I don't know what others think, but I find that if the GFS goes off on a last minute bender, it's never completely wrong, and it's often at least half right. We shall see!
  15. Let's just say they don't diverge that much from the op. But who cares - of course the GFS 18Z will be right
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