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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 1

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  1. In the nearer term, the ARGEPE has much of central / southern England above 25C until at least Tuesday (especially from Sunday) and spots in the east up to 27C. Not big fry by the standards of the summer so far, but still in the "very good summer weather" category. For me, clearly a cool down everywhere by next Friday (Scotland sadly never really warming up), but the typical behavior of Atlantic highs modelled weakly at T168 is for them to become flatter and further E by T0. So I'm not buying this NWly. I would expect an improving back holiday weekend, perhaps getting very warm once again by the end of it. A N/S split then for quite a while ahead. North areas mixed with average temps, southern areas get some very usable summer weather right up to the bank holiday perhaps apart from one day at the end of next week.
  2. Back holiday watch again - clusters not as keen on eastern height rises this morning, but a pretty good set for all except the far NW - looking settled and probably allowing temperatures above average on 4 of the 5 clusters
  3. @Mike Poole brilliant analysis of the clusters charts - just to add, the anomalies are according to climatic norms for the particular month. Back to the output : well interesting to see how the models, for once, have pushed back the introduction of cooler air - a few days ago we were thinking Tuesday next week, but now Thursday may be the day for the southern half, UKMO for example Make no mistake, if cloud levels allow, it could be hot next week. The east coast looking particularly good. Onto the clusters, a really good test coming up, because for several runs now it has been promoting a height rise to the east around the end of the bank holiday - last night's chart for 27th below: Strong trough Atlantic VS strong ridge to the east = a fair chance of a southerly draw, at least temporarily. This is still 11 days out though so we'll be interesting to see how close it gets.
  4. I'll try! A bit of it is my guesswork. The charts show the ECM ensembles - 51 of them - gathered into clusters (which are groups of ensembles with a similar pattern). The colours show the variance within the particular cluster from the expected 500mb values for the time of year (more red = higher values, more blue = lower values). So red means more chance of a ridge, but care is needed as if you'd normally expect a deep trough in a location at the time of year on the chart, you'd need very high anomalies (deep red) to get an actual ridge. The lines i think are just one example run from the cluster, showing pressure lines at 500mb level. Biggest cluster is top left.
  5. But look at how this Mid-Atlantic ridge is expected to develop. Compare D9, D11 and D13. Watch how the oranges /reds work their way, on the majority of clusters, from left to right. This suggests to me a good chance of a ridge passing through the UK at a higher latitude than in the past 10 days, eventually turning the flow more southerly.
  6. Interesting to see the ECM mean really going for an Atlantic ridge - it doesn't normally follow the op to this extent for this kind of pattern.
  7. UKMO looking set to pump up a ridge at T144. Could be the end of the Atlantic train for a while.
  8. So the latest EC clusters not really seeing eye to eye with the OP run But clusters 1 and 4 provide a pattern that could play with a plume shortly after. That takes us over 50%. But sure, significant clusters remain that would tip things into the unsettled, autumnal category. Potential is there, but clarity awaits.
  9. We also now have 5 days in a row with the 12C 850s line over the south of the UK on the latest ECM mean, from Saturday until Wednesday. That's a pretty warm spell coming up?
  10. OK... I'm officially on bank holiday heatwave "watch" - not forecast, I must stress. This morning's ECM op was the first to follow a growing trend on the ensembles - only about 30% so far (clusters 3/4), but some of the other clusters shown below (for 26 Aug) have potential to develop in a similar way
  11. Pretty close to a breakdown free ECM! Also much better further north in general. Still, ensembles this morning were 50/50 between something like this and a less settled outlook after next Tuesday, so wait for the morning?
  12. This morning's clusters on the whole favour a delay on next week's trough, generally now reaching us during Wednesday (better chance of heat) The idea of NE heights for the BH weekend has grown, too
  13. Despite some attempts on some op runs to edge towards heatwave territory early next week, the percentage play remains as it has done for days - a few good days in the south before a front crosses around Tuesday. The clusters last night suggested this front may not actually developing as planned (that's how we might get the hotter runs) but most look like pushing a trough through shortly after this chart, which is for Monday Further out, lack of a discernable pattern change, so still some settled and unsettled spells (the latter most frequent in the NW), but this chart for the Bank Holiday was an interesting first effort, two clusters with heights slightly lifted over most of the UK, and the third with a trough stalling to the SW (thunderstorms!) Little sign of below average conditions aside a say or two in the next two weeks, anyway.
  14. I always feel the area of trouble is the two lightest yellow lines. That's where the most active Atlantic stuff goes through. I note how those lines drift further and further south as D7 heads towards D10.