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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 28 2018

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    Drayton, Portsmouth

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  1. Some useful comments on the EC clusters earlier on - there is some mystery behind how the clusters are composed, but my best guess has always been that the anomaly colours represent the average of the clusters, whilst the 500mb lines show an example of a run from within the cluster - whether I am right or wrong, the best way imo to view the clusters is as a "ball-park figure" rather than something very determinate, unless all clusters are broadly similar. Looking at the T300 clusters, then, my "ball-park" guide would be that we need to look NW for the behaviour of the ridge, and also SE for the extent of ridging into Europe. NW heights will encourage the PV to drop on the eastern flank. Cluster 5 shows a pattern where NW heights are so strong and extensive through the N Atlantic that a major cold incursion would probably hit the UK. Other clusters, though, maintain stronger heights towards Europe. This makes it much more likely that a colder flow would get cut-off before reaching the UK (not impossible, e.g. cluster 2, which might allow so fairly potent PM air to reach northern parts). But even here I'm being too detailed. Big picture: heights to the NW are brewing in some shape or form for the turn of the month. Heights to the SE may also form. Cold an option, by no means a certainty, and actually a fairly even chance of a well-below average start to the month or a well-above average start to the month.
  2. Too far out to take seriously, but this morning's ECM finishes in an explosive position, with the PV upstream and not far away
  3. ECM moving towards ridging close to Greenland for the start of December, but rising heights across Europe might prevent cold getting down to the UK - may well squeeze the Atlantic directly through the UK and a return to long wet periods
  4. Well the EC clusters are not giving up on ridging to the north as December approaches - quite the opposite - clusters 1 and 3 seeing further ridging either to the NW or NE. Could be another opportunity to get things lined up favorably for cold by the end of the month? ‎
  5. EC clusters this morning - While those reds persist to the NE, there's always a chance of a colder scenario developing, this at D12 but what coldies definitely do not want are yellows back over Europe on cluster 3 by D15 - ridging into C Europe - no chance for cold if that happens One crumb of comfort - the largest cluster goes a bit easier on the SW trough by the D10-D15 period, improving chances of a dry-up - other clusters would continue the rainfest.
  6. EC clusters continue to show great potential for NE blocking for the end of the month. but probably predicting a NE ridge / SW trough, leading to a flow from SE Europe, and not quite cold enough for widespread snow yet. Studying the individual members, by far the largest grouping of runs has a Scandi/Russian High rather than a pure Scandi High, and a very deep trough to the SW. Cold flooding remains the potential headline. If it had been mid-January, would be serious snow interest. Just too early. Needs a NE flow, not a SE flow, at the moment.
  7. Persistence of a trough over Western Europe has promoted milder weather in Eastern Europe. Dominoes not quite lined up yet. A cut-off High to the north is needed at the moment to get a cold pool closer to the UK.
  8. The extended ECM continues to avoid the slight shift in synoptics required to allow a freeze from the east - and in all honesty are pointing more and more to a continuation of persistent rain. Look at the mean pressure chart for T300: Above average heights to the NE but merely acting as a stall and southerly shift on Atlantic systems, meaning they are directed towards us and stay longer over us. The clusters at the same time tell the same story: The main cluster (which isn't too dissimilar to other clusters) sees the height rise to the NE, but probably doesn't allow too much influence from very cold areas, whilst stalling the trough close to our shores. Could be a lot of flooding this month if the current charts hold.
  9. EC clusters keep dangling carrots D12 — Scandi High cluster back up to 60% (I usually like to see 70% before calling it a significant trend) - ridge to the NE, trough to the S, should be a good chance of an extended period with an Influence from between NE and SE - but previous potential not quite turning into reality, so still a wait and see situation.
  10. EC clusters now pushing another trough through the pattern around mid-month rather than building a north-Atlantic ridge (and with it all my memories of typical winter chasing on ECM charts come flooding back!!) The Scandi High (or perhaps Sceuro?) is still showing for the D10-D15 period on the main cluster but dropped from 50% to 40% of members This is the second time the ECM has underestimated the Atlantic in a large way in the past two weeks - worth bearing in mind when the next attempt at northern heights crops up - might be one of "those" periods for the ECM. (Though being beyond D6 still, of course a chance it may flip back, too )
  11. Oh the trials involved with getting cold to the UK! EC clusters this morning tick almost every box for cold at T204 (D8/D9) - except in that very far right corner of the chart, we can see a pinch of heights: If the heights become too strong, the easterly flow gets cut off too quickly to send deep cold towards the UK. Cluster 1 looks like it may keep heights weak enough across Central Europe to ensure the flow comes from Eastern Europe rather than the Eastern Mediterranean (and this is the largest cluster), but the other two clusters have stronger heights to the east and eventually less cold air filters in from the south (That said, air crossing the continent by mid-November is likely to cool down quickly if the flow is slack, so below average conditions would probably continue, just not snowy conditions) The picture at D12/D13 is not as cold as the clusters were yesterday, but all the same, the largest cluster with 51% of the runs maintains a good Scandi height anomaly with little chance of the block being sunk over the top - still possibly drawing in slightly less cold air from the SE but experiences tells us that the longer such a pattern stays in situ, the greater the chances that eventually something will give to allow a fresh injection of cold from the NE. Also, battleground possibilities on cluster 1 as the Atlantic fights to get back in. Clusters 2 and 3 already see the Altantic re-establishing.
  12. Still plenty of potential for cold on the 12Z clusters but the problem is we can't see enough of the situation to the SE, which will dictate whether the flow is S of E (potentially still mild) or N of E (progressively colder). Most runs suggesting the former but time for that to change yet, long way off.
  13. And another thing on my "models bucket-list" for winter - a 1030mb Scandi high on a mean chart, this at D13: A fairly good indicator of confidence that a Scandi high might materialise. For balance, though, worth pointing out that the synoptics to the SE are not quite as favourable and could allow a milder SE flow at the moment. Also, ECM mean much more positively tilted: So, on second thoughts, not enough info yet to go all-in for in a prolonged early cold spell. It's an option though!
  14. Watching with a keen eye my friend!! Looks like @feb1991blizzard and @mb018538 have covered today's cluster developments already but, if my opinion is of any help (and I know not everyone always agrees with me!), this morning is probably the first time I've thought we might be on the cusp of something that could deliver true winter even in mid-November. By T240, 3 out of 4 clusters get into a pretty good position to block the Atlantic, and by T312 2 of the 3 clusters could still be in a good position. Exciting times!
  15. Risk to S Wales drops on this EURO4 run but I would cancel a boat trip across Biscay this weekend, goodness me
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