Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 5 2016

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    Drayton, Portsmouth

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  1. Yes Tuesday is the day!!! Probably the peak of any heat in the coming week, and looks the same on this chart too!!
  2. Hmmm ... ECM sticking to its general plan of getting the low in its favourite position between Iceland and Scotland, and then sticking it there. GFS is similar so that would have to be the preferred solution for now. Which means, for next weekend, incrementally better weather the further south and east one goes. - as usual. Could turn out rather good in the SE. With a bit of luck, some decent spells further north too but unlikely to avoid some sort of frontal activity. But, as mentioned earlier, still options for more settled throughout and less settled for all. We, the UK, ride the dividing line between summer and non-summer
  3. The idea that the models can't be trusted is often overdone imo, but this really is one of the rare times where I'd say enjoy the sun and warmth on Monday and Tuesday, and then who knows where we go from there. The difference between the GFS, UKMO and GEM are so stark tonight not just for the middle of the week, but for the whole subsequent evolution. The GEM is even pushing the Atlantic trough backwards by Thursday, suggesting that a ridge may emerge over the UK to split the west and east troughs. In contrast the UKMO conjures up a low for Wednesday that I haven't seen modelled thus far. I think it's what you get in summer when there's a lot of slack pressure around, little forcing and small disturbances milling around aimlessly. I think @damianslaw 's post above has a couple of ideas that have a chance, but I think there are even more than he mentions. FI is T96 for me right now, and long term trends hard to see.
  4. The ECM sticks largely with what it had before - but strangely starts to send the main trough backwards by D9/D10 - signs that it wants blocking to the east to get established? With such variance tonight, and bearing in mind many more GEFS members are closer to UKMO than the GFS op, I think all bets are off beyond even next Wednesday.
  5. 12Z runs... where did the jet go?? Models have suddenly decided to take all the sting out of incoming low next week. The result is divisive. The GFS 12Z is a bit like scratching your nails down a blackboard (hurts just thinking about it!), with yet another trough getting stuck over the UK by the end of next week. The GEM also gets the trough stuck, but this time next to NW Scotland so not much better. So that leaves the UKMO to fly the flag of hope ... and I have a sneaky feeling this one would stall the trough much further to our west ... which would be interesting to say the least:
  6. Scratching around for inspiration this morning ... it may look a bit hopeless but some signals remain on the ensembles that the low coming in for next Wednesday to Friday could be followed by a reasonably decent weekend afterwards. Both GFS and ECM ensembles show the low that follows may dig into the high to our south a bit more some distance from the UK: The ensembles reflect a bit of a split between members which are flatter: and members that dig the next Atlantic low south, leading to a bump of heights ahead: and a few that have a bit of both (brief ridge before Atlantic breakthrough once more) So unsettled is still the main theme, but not completely hopeless for good weather and still that small chance that summer could return rather faster than expected
  7. The new GFS rediscovers the FI plume: If a flat pattern gets established next weekend, then this is possibility should an Atlantic low dive south at the opportune moment. Odds 10%-20% IMO.
  8. John I imagine you will be absolutely right when it comes to the 6-10 day charts - but my point was that the 8-14 day charts a few days ago did not see the huge trough that looks set to split Iceland and Scotland next week - and so perhaps worth taking the 8-14 day chart with a slightly bigger pinch of salt?
  9. Now we're into a pattern that the models are usually more accurate with, I feel comfortable to speculate out to D8. An unsettled weekend, then a rather better couple of days next week with the mid-20s likely again, before fronts cross the country from north to south Wednesday into Thursday. And then this for next Friday: I can't see anywhere escaping the effects of the low, but the questions are over the strength of the wind in the west, and whether the south might escape the worst of any wet weather. The ensemble mean charts sit somewhere between the most northerly and southerly extents: Another unsettled weekend for most, then, is the most likely outcome. To early to guess beyond that - current data suggests that the following week could either lift the trough (=more warm sunshine) or reinforce the trough (=more cool rain) - or even more likely, alternate between the two. I did see suggestions from the NOAA that settled weather is very unlikely, but I think we need to wait for it to settle down a bit - its current 6-10 day chart shows developments that the corresponding 8-14 day charts did not see at all (compare below):
  10. The pub run trying to provide some cheer. Temperatures back into the mid twenties widely next Tuesday and maybe upper twenties on Wednesday in the SE. Why always Tuesday and Wednesday???
  11. Ah, I realise I worded my post wrongly. I was talking to myself about not speculating further ahead - not intended as a comment on your post - sorry!
  12. I think with the jet the way it is forecast, the "percentage play" is on the Atlantic low crossing all of the UK by next Friday at the latest. Of course, the jet forecast could be wrong, but I doubt it will be wrong enough to miss us by much. But Monday to Wednesday, or even Thursday - well, if the form of the summer is repeated, I don't see why some warmer weather couldn't return to all parts for a while. Best not speculate much further!
  13. A revisit of my post from 10 days ago. Oh dear, oh dear!! Bizarrely, most of what I wrote actually happened: "heights rising northwards through Europe" - CHECK "raising of the jet so that it goes much further north" - CHECK (but left a bit behind!!) "height rise over Scandi" - CHECK (but went even further, too much further!) Almost dream synoptics for July if you consider these things in isolation. But what the ensembles didn't pick up was a teeny weeny low - which just happened to sit right over us. So so unlucky!! Frosty, since my original post was intended to cheer you up, I apologise profusely on behalf of the ECM, the GFS and the METO
  14. I've had 2003 on my mind for a long time, and it's still there - had a little look at the archives ... oh do I? ... yeah go on, why not!! Apart from the trough over Scandi, not a bad pattern match, eh?? Oh, and what happened next in 2003?? BOOM! A little height rise over Scandi by D7-D10 and we might be in business ... needs to be a bit better than the current ECM mean chart, but not completely out of the question:
  15. Ops and ensemble means this morning at T144 In general, a fairly good outlook for next week I would say, especially for the north and west!! Instinctively, you'd say that ridge to the west is going to topple into the UK and give at least 2-3 days of dry/settled weather. But if the low below Greenland is pushed in a slightly more NEly direction rather than flattening the block, it could result in a longer settled spell yet. The ECM is a little out-of-kilt when compared with the rest. Its negative outlook for the UK is very much dependent on a 500mb Greenland High. I think many of us, over the years, have come to the conclusion not to trust the ECM on a Greenland High unless the GFS also has one. The T192 charts show clearly how the ECM op is on its own with the Greenland High, which is the reason why it tracks everything south as it does. The GFS op/mean and the ECM mean are pretty much on the same page: So the percentage play is to go with the GFS op/GFS mean/ECM combination, and a north/south split by the end of next week, with the possibility of a short warmer spell for the SE again and changeable conditions for Scotland. Just the chance that the flow will kink again in the Atlantic, allowing another mini-plume. Personally, I think the chart below is just as credible as the ECM op for the same time period. So once the weekend is out of the way, a very good chance of a better window for next week.