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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 5 2016

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    Drayton, Portsmouth

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  1. I think the GFS has got most of these events wrong this winter, even at T6 ARGEPE 12Z back to north of London
  2. Hello all - anyone checked out the ARGEPE 06Z? Snow line much further south on Sunday than on other models. All the way down to Oxford/Berkshire/Surrey/Kent for several hours. There's going to be some frayed nerves on here in the next 48 hours!!
  3. I think the EC clusters are pretty much on the same page as Stodge's comments above. It looks like we will see a surge from the Azores High towards Europe in the D8-D12 period, but where it will go is hard to place yet. UK high or Central Europe High are strong possibilities. A raise of heights into Scandi is still there but the ECM has trended away from this option slightly in the past 36 hours. Here's D11:
  4. Expecting final CET to be over 5C now
  5. EC clusters pretty much confirm this. Mid-latitude block over Europe is the best option for cold (pos. UK block later), otherwise the Atlantic is on top Must emphasise though, this is just one run. All the previous 6 runs had a Scandi based block, so too soon to say if that's been scrubbed out for good.
  6. Studying individual members - no sign of NE heights by 28 Jan, but lots of blocks centred directly to our east and stretching to Russia. They would provide cold/dry continental air over the UK esp. the south, but a slight topple would allow a mild SWly and at this stage you wouldn't want to pin your hopes on either solution. In reality, the Bartlett mean is a blend of these eastern blocks and other runs which have low pressure much closer to the UK. Beyond 29 Jan, too much scatter to make a reasoned comment.
  7. Looking at the national rail news feeds, looks like every train line in the south East has trees down. The low bombed that tiny bit earlier, winds to me seem to be 10mph up on what was forecast. East Anglia must be getting a hammering right now. Ironically fairly calm down here!!
  8. Surprised to hear the extended EPS mean has no signal for NE heights - looking at the individual ECM ensemble members, more than 50% have strong heights to the east by D12 (though in a range of positions varying from to our ESE to NE). By D15, there is a lot more scatter but certainly not a zonal walkover.
  9. No sign of mid or high latitude height rises on the latest ECM. High pressure over Russia too far away.
  10. ECM coming out as usual on weather.us. Highlights so far: - Still very snowy for parts of N England/S Scotland tonight - Unlikely to get gusts above 70mph over mainland England - More showers with snowy bursts for N/W parts on Thursday/Friday - Area of rain for S England on Saturday - Band of rain turning to snow on Sunday morning east of a line Liverpool to London. Looks a bit slower to clear than previous runs. Could be quite a snowy day in N and E areas. Turns back to rain for all areas except the highest ground by the end of the day. - Generally mild and westerly next week.
  11. While the ECM ensembles keep churning out fair numbers of NE ridges, I won't be taking the easterly off the table. But it's not in the lead, that's for sure.
  12. Thanks as ever Tamara. Sorry to quote just this part of your post but I think it is quite relevant to the ECM clusters that I post - so I'm gathering that the NE height rises suggested for the month end are dependent upon a couple of background signals which, at the moment, are uncertain and perhaps over-optimistic. @iapennell - it's getting very close to your timescale for an end of January easterly - I would be very interested in your take on this!
  13. Yes it looks as if most areas are going to escape this storm completely (save the usual winter gales on southern/western coasts), but there's still this nagging problem that the storm will be deepening as it crosses the UK and E England (Norfolk in particular) still needs to keep a very close watch - slight earlier deepening that forecast could make an enormous difference. The EURO4 is perhaps the best we can look at for the shortest range - these are mean wind speeds - note how the storm has developed as it goes into the N Sea. So expecting 60-70mph for S/W coasts and East Anglia, maybe 80mph in East Anglia if it bombs
  14. ECM ensemble clusters a little less keen on the end of month NE ridge this morning but it's still very clearly on option. As are mild westerlies.