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Man With Beard

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Man With Beard last won the day on August 4

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    Drayton, Portsmouth

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  1. Ecm this morning has a few changes - first, raw temps for Saturday (34C) are now higher than Friday (33C) - as noted many times, add somewhere between 2 and 4 degrees to this, occasionally even 5, and you'll probably get the actual maximum. Sunday much more widely hot across the southern half but slightly down on Saturday. Monday to Wednesday have raw maxes between 30 and 32, so Wednesday comes back into the "heatwave fold", but not record breaking potential on those days now, at least on this run! Worth bearing in mind - models don't particularly like easterlies so short teem variance is to be expected - more extensive thundery areas could crush those maximums next week at very short notice - can we please stop knocking the NWP. Anomaly charts are great for trends but they can't tell me what weather I might get on a certain day, which the NWP does very well (usually) within 6 days.
  2. Gfs 18Z is very hot for SE, and hot for some others too - the potential heat shouldn't be underestimated - it is extremely difficult to get the GFS to show 30C+ on its raw output even in top-grade plumes, so for it to show 31-33C maxes five days in a row, between D2 & D6, is really exceptional. I don't expect the UK record to go in this period, but equally it wouldn't shock me if it did.
  3. Apologies - Wednesday was wrong, I was looking at 00Z charts. More like 29C. I'm camping and my signal is dire
  4. It's a tough call but I'm bearing in mind it was 5C too low last Friday
  5. Maximums we could expect based on ECM 12z Fri 36 Sat 35 Sun 33 Mon 34 Tue 36 Wed 36 Other models and runs may differ!
  6. Ecm ensembles out - probably 70% of runs would produce a maximum in the 90Fs, and 20-30% would be as hot as Friday in the SE. Daren't look further, not good for my OCD
  7. Well the ECM has returned to one of its hot runs from earlier in the week. I won't post my "adjusted raw predictions" as there was a bit too much of an uproar the other night, but, basically, the South East would remain in the low to mid 30Cs from Friday until next Wednesday. The general area of heat much further north and west. Just one run only (OK two if you count the UKMO!). Need more runs, even at this late stage.
  8. I'm just going to put the UKMO uppers chart T144 here for reference. There's been no other chart like it for this timescale, even in the ensembles. So different to its run last night!
  9. Arpege for Friday/Saturday Also, the Ukmo bizarrely has the 20C uppers line parked on the south coast from Saturday until the end of the run - I say bizarre because it is so different to last night's 12Z. But the trend is certainly to keep it a bit hotter on Saturday, again.
  10. ECM clusters - T192 - most ensembles have stronger positive anomalies to the north than the op run - suggests we're probably better advised to look south for a breakdown than north - I still feel there's heat to be extracted from these charts even by this stage!
  11. You do realise you are in the absolute A1 position for an extended heatwave in the coming days down there in Bournemouth? The ECM in particular seems keen on making you a few degrees hotter than just 50 miles away on some days, and the GFS looks similar. Or is it more stressful being in a spot with potential, than in a spot with none at all
  12. It's total pandemonium on the models right now for those of us in southern parts. If we follow all of the ensembles, we literally do not know if we'll get 25C or 35C on many individual days between this Saturday and next Wednesday!! I think it'll be a case of ticking days off one by one.
  13. The heat Sunday to Wednesday is reserved for the southern most 100 miles of the UK, which has become a trend. Southern counties may scrap low 30s Sunday/Monday on the latest ECM, then low to mid 30s across the south Tuesday/Wednesday. Quite a steep drop in temps as you go up to the midlands. Just one run though.
  14. ECM 12Z has 34C raw temps for Friday. That puts an actual max in the range of 36-38C
  15. Sorry I was thinking of the UKV (thanks @Singularity)
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