Bolt From Blue

Methuselah Me three. It depends if enough energy and forcing is available this far up. Seen it reach Colchester and fizzle too many times in recent years because of these factors. Time will tell.

Beautifully taken pictures. I guess the level of saturation is suppressing potential lightening from these cells. A shame in a sense as things have picked up a lot.

That’s awesome, looks like you can never say never. I wonder if we can get any scraps here on the East Anglian coast

Elevated Supercell north of Hastings?

That really highlights what an impactful amount of rainfall large areas of the UK has seen. It just goes to show that even when you prepare we often get caught out, especially here in East Anglia when events like this can be decades apart, and towns and villages have expanded on natural run offs etc. I hope anyone affected has a swift recovery.

What a day here in East Suffolk, I've been busy driving in my coach around evacuating Thomas Mills school in Framlingham and Stradbroke High. This was Framlingham just an hour after we got clear and the river burst. The Video is just outside Dennington not long after the buses were released from the school, my good friend Steve who was driving the Coach made it through, the car not so lucky. 76mm of rain in Charsfield up to 1500hrs, which is the closest village with a figure, so likely much the same around the area. Hope you can see the uploads because I'm not good with such things! NJVY0762.MP4

Just like that things have come to life very close, time to watch the show.

AROME was close but earlier with initiation. I'm staying up now, appears the French MCS has not had an adverse effect on things.

This has me concerned too, one of three possible options with this. 1 It hoovers up all the CAPE and decays leaving a turned over mess and nothing for those in the warning area. 2 Kent clipper and North Sea Special. 3 Kent and the E/A coast get something noteworthy as per MetCheck. The Channel Island storms are likely forming off outflow.

I gather we are expecting another poor effort over the weekend regarding MUCAPE and potential overnight storms? Not much being said about it other than it is a plume but not a plume, which to me implies the low is not disrupting and setting up the more classic type scenario but instead doing what it did back in June which lead to the energy staying over France and steering winds from the NE= Kent clipper/North Sea rumble/subsequent fail. I know we still have a day or two to watch but any latest info is always much appreciated. As a side note, had a lovely BBQ at work Tuesday evening under the Cambridge anvil, I couldn't miss out on burgers to do the hours drive though, guess I'm not hardcore enough. Fantastic pictures going round too.

More grey sky, is this the undercut we were warned about? Another week or more of waiting for some decent sun if this HP sits in the wrong place throughout this expected settled spell. Its been a fantastic season so far for many areas, decent sun big convection etc. But for some reason there are patches that have managed nothing but grey sky since mid June. Still I'm not giving in yet something just has to give! Have a nice afternoon especially if you are enjoying some welcome sun and warmth.

Well we were only discussing this the other day, plumes don't cut it anymore. All the MUCAPE stays over France into the North Sea and across to Netherlands/Denmark because of wonky trajectory and steering winds keeping destabilising just out of reach. Only lucky grazes for areas mentioned (we had a small very average storm on Suffolk coast as the most northern extent) with decent storms in Kent and South Essex early hours Thursday morning only. Matches last year for here at least although that doesn't take much beating, will we ever see the likes of more Northerly trajectories that engulf much more of the country or were we just extremely unlucky?

Yes mentioned this last night, ESTOFEX going for relatively capped across much of France with developments growing upscale into the MCS across northern France SE UK. Will await this afternoon.

So it would seem the differences between how widespread and how much electrical activity are tied to how much energy can reach us (with everything else in place), which in turn is dependant on surface based storms over France in the afternoon modifying things too much. This happened back in June 2019 when supercells over France actually sat there hoovering up the energy and ruined what was supposed to be a good event. With all the shuffling East to West to contend with we could probably do with LESS surface based stuff happening over France to allow the energy to make it unmodified. Then we have Friday and Sat to iron out. Very exciting days ahead for most, could this break the deadlock for those that have missed out for years? I'd say best chance in a while.

Those CAPE and LI charts as always look strikingly similar to recent times with it all staying over France. I do hope as things draw closer we get in on the game, several days of very warm/hot temps and high humidity going out with nothing has become an unwelcome pattern over recent years.