minus10
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Posts posted by minus10
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The 12z gefs 2m temp anom switch is certainly quite stark over the continent from the 20th in particular..
..we go from this..
..(uk already below average)..
...to these..
..notable that nw Scotland and Ireland modelled to recover to above average temps for a while with more Atlantic influence perhaps...
..these tranlate into mid to high single digit temps over the continent and the uk according to gefs ..i should imagine there will be quite a lot of cloud around but where the sun does get through it could push temps into double digits depending on topography / wind direction etc..some frost also being modelled mainly over the continent again...particularly Germany , Switzerland , Eastern France and the Alps...uk according to the model mainly escapes frost...well i hope so anyway from a gardening point of view...i understand that French vineyards are already using fires to keep the worst effects of the frost away....
...more to come i should imagine..
..by 29th April the colder anom is reducing and becoming less potent...
...uk still hanging onto little below average temps...lets hope May will warm up although i get the feeling this weather pattern will be quite stubborn for a while..todays sun here in wgc felt lovely...enjoy any sun you get in next week or two if you can...
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WYorksWeather gefs 12z showing a clear 5 wave pattern which as i understand can stay around for some time...
...this was referred to in latest met 10 day trend as potentially a self sustaining pattern...problem is the uk is not in the best position if the pattern evolves as moduled keeping the cooler north easterly theme...at least the sun is getting stronger and the nights getting shorter still...as others have said this is not untypical for spring...
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Working outside yesterday was a case in point...one minute when the sky cleared and the wind dropped it felt like early summer...next the gusts returned and the big shower clouds moved in it was suddenly late winter/early spring again..
..fairly clear consistent signal now shown by eps 0z 850s for below average temps for probably rest of April..
...ens showing reasonable certainty with restricted spread..
..what is also certain is the spell of higher pressure from the weekend for 3 or 4 days...
...although from a south eastern point of view would like to see it a bit further east perhaps..
..should be able to look forward to relatively drier weather and yes..in any sunny breaks should feel pretty decent with less wind...
...longer term ..yes..that north easterly...
..for eastern/south eastern areas risk of cloud/dull/drizzle/ showers but still chance i say to see some sunny breaks...more chance further west...
..rainfull distribution also shows that south western areas will fayre best for driest weather perhaps..
..but for all areas should be drier than has been of late so that has to be an improvement..
...all in all could be better however i think there will still be some decent weather to be had..certainly some good gardening weather..(watch out for frosts though)
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Rain/ Hail squall but no lightning...think the sweet spot in Cambridgeshire...
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From a gardeners perspective yesterday was a lovely day for cutting grass....warm but not too warm...DRY..
....breezy and yes...that gold disc in the sky was out...allbeit a bit hazy at times...good day for working...actually felt like late spring/early summer...well after today which should also be good here in the south east i am desperately looking for any signs of more of this..not that promising from the gefs0z..
..Looking towards the end of April and cooler and maybe cloudy with brighter breaks with some rain seems to be on the cards..
..geop anoms showing that block to the north west..
..good example of the 5 wave pattern there with the trough to our south east and north or north easterly air flow possible..as indicated by the mslp anoms..
..both at 850 hpa and 2m temps wrong colour of average..
..this translates to a very uninspiring temp on the ground..
...however in any sun i would think it would be a bit warmer than what is shown..particularly dependent on topography location and wind direction with south western areas favoured..
at least we wont have much rain ??
...well...not quite as much rain..again south western areas favoured...
..crucially from gardeners point of view will there be any frosts?
..with the exeption of couple of outliers i would say we would hopefully avoid a frost here in wgc although if the wind falls light it could be a close run thing..
..this signal for below average 850s pretty consistent to varying degrees over the models now and the gesf mspl showing why for the 26th..
...however looking on the more positive side the Atlantic looks stonewalled as @Mike Poole stated earlier and it wouldnt take a lot to tweak that high to have more influence over the uk and thus reduce the nne wind flow ...longer days..growing strength of the sun...enjoy the spring and make the most of any brighter/ drier slots if you can...have a good day...
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Disappointed with all the cloud...i was under the impression it would be quite a sunny day today...latest sat not that encouraging in that regard though....
..air feels warmer though....
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Be interesting to see where this gfs12z op lies in the ens ??
Ouch.....
...has been hints after the higher pressure spell in the south later next week of a north westerly as next ridge moves in but this must be the extreme edge of the envelope...
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Allseasons-Si sorry to hear that ....did wonder where you were..hope your OH is not suffering too much and that her situation can improve..certainly could do with an improvement with the weather..looks more promising ..all be it temporary with increasing hp influence to the south on the gfs 18z..
..resulting in a warm up..
...but more importantly a dry up...how long for though is the question...
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Yes more encouraging gfs12z run for warmer and drier weather towards mid month....
..mean 850s a healthy plus 5 for almost 5 days and the op/ control north of that at times..
..mean pressure now upto 1025mbs..
..both geo potential and mslp anoms showing more of a traditional weather pattern ..
...resulting in a more traditional nw se rain distribution..
...and somewhat warmer temps..
...this is a trend that has been increasing for a while now so...here's hoping for some good drying weather ...
ecm....
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Well happy Easter everyone...hope you have a good Easter Sunday if you can..was hoping for a bit of sun today...but dull and gloom so far..yesterday was a lovely day with some decent sun and nice to see that blue sky again..
..as for the models...sadly no change really in this very unsettled weather pattern with the 'trough sandwich' extending from the west/south west over the uk at times with consequent run of low pressures moving in to influence our weather...
...even at day 10 the trough still much in existence as per gefs 0z ..
..as a result lot more rain for most for next 10 days at least..
...France, Low countries and particularly north west Spain/Portugal also getting significant rain although notably most of the Med significantly drier..
..although wet it does look as so it will warm up a bit ..
Gefs 2m temp anom for 6th to 11th April showing positive anoms extending from the south over much of the uk..so in any sun it should feel quite warm actually..
..what is also noticeable about the next 10 days or so is the higher levels of certainty for this weather pattern in the ens..
Gefs 0z
Eps
...grim really but just got to hope like yesterday that those drier and warmer days become more frequent between the downpours...
..have a good day...
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Cloud 10 yes the difference clearly shown up on the 850s between the north and south..
...as well as snow there would be a lot more rain with that set up...just what we dont need....
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The soaking continues ..
Gefs 0z showing total prec from 27th March to 12th April...anything from 50mm to 100mm or more countrywide...
..one consulation is quite a lot of it will be warm rain...particularly further south..
..animation 2m anoms shows that with a couple of exceptions where colder air attemps to move in it will be fairly mild...indeed warm in any sun...
850s also showing this..
...with the orientation of the trough promoting south west winds ..
..just suffecient higher than average pressure to the north west to keep the trough locked in at that positive angle ..
...another 11mm rain last night, 62 mm so far this month here in wgc after February 's record breaking 120 mm..cant remember a period where rain has been so incessant..
...yesterday morning was lovely ..warm sun on my back , clear blue skies...really felt like Spring /early summer...maybe we will have a bit more of that over the Easter weekend however next few days of volatile weather to get through first...looking forward to some interesting skies though..
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Sherry yes...at the top...
...large uncertainty by then though, however the mean is somewhat higher so maybe the op is leading the way...
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Well week to 10 days of grotty or interesting weather coming up...depending on your opinion...certainly potential for some vigourous convection should the stronger sun show itself..actually feels quite warm out of the wind in the sun...
..any evidence of northern blocking becoming well established as we go into April?..
Well...favourable MJO...fairy amplified phase 7 and 8..
...and coming to the end of a major SSW..
...even after recovery vortex remains weak at 10hpa..
..will these translate into that northern blocking..?
..Certainly initially blocking looks to take hold to the north west..however what about longer term well into April..?
GEFS 0z doesnt think so...
...if anything higher than average heights to the south being modelled..
...of course looking longer ahead is always fraught with risk however if this were to be correct (
) then maybe we can look forward to the weather becoming a bit warmer and drier as we go deeper into April..
2m temp anoms warming up...
...however still a lot of rain to get through by the looks of it according to GEFS 0z ..
...if anything the eps is slightly colder on the mean 850s into April compared to Gefs..
..so while not the best from a dry warmer perspective there perhaps is a bit of hope on the horizon...according to the Gefs.....will need to keep a watch on that blocking response to see if, when and where it sets up as that is crucial....
@Cambrian...i think i will continue to be wearing my gardening beanie for now...looks better than my sun protector anyway !
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Lovely to see the sun...actually feels quite warm out there...giving those spring flowers a boost...Magnolias particulary good this year...but. .make the most of it if models are to be believed although still some sun at the weekend but cooler and of course.. showers...
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Notable that this is the second gefs 850s run where the mean has dipped lower than it has been for some time around 24th...as it has been fairly rock solid in following the long term average recently...
...pressure ens not enthusiastic about raising pressure over the uk with the run wanting the Atlantic trough to dig south..
...leading to higher pressure capping the uk to the north as illustrated on the anoms...
...for those...including myself wanting a more prolonged warmer and drier spell this isnt the best...however just one Gfs run...just have the nagging feeling that the current ssw will have an impact that is not wanted as we head into late March/ April..hope i am wrong unless it works for us in a drier and warmer sense...
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Hands up...who is fed up with this rain???..another washout this morning...as for the sun...l presume its still there...somewhere...
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Well if its dryer weather you are looking for i think the 12z gefs is looking reasonable...
..the accumulated precip until 25th showing an improving picture with a return to more standard fayre with the north west south east distribution of rainfull..
...also temps look reasonable with average to only a degree or so below average for 850s by the last week of March..
..which results in actual average to above average 2m temps given time of year...
...on a broader scale the gefs not really showing any dramatic response to the current ssw if its (poleward) blocking you are looking for.. (yet)
...current predicted height anoms showing mild to warm for the uk i would think...
..benign and fairly warm in the south as is shown on the gfs op 12z..
...of course it could still change for the end of the month...with the ongoing ssw, however really hoping now that this being modelled is the way forward..
..the ens mean show next week warmer then back to lt average or just below which at this time of year is pretty reasonable...less rain spikes to..
..after todays Mothering Sunday washout i really hope for warmer and drier weather...the cold weather ship has sailed as far as i am concerned and i am a coldie ...also as a gardener really do need to see some drier weather at least as the ground is still saturated around here and in the south generally.. ..hope springs eternal...
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Well i must say what a miserable mothering Sunday...dark , dismal, wet and cold....really hope we can have a major pattern change to something drier and warmer soon...not counting on it though...happy mothers day to all those busy mums out there...try and enjoy despite the weather...
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Crazy spread...from +14 to - 13 850s !!
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Rain All Night yes now in zonal wind reversal territory...
...expect to see some eractic model runs turning up...perhaps....
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Mike Poole Thats just crazy...1 minute..
...not expert in this but dont current model runs take a few hours?..this AI has the potential to revolutionalise the way modelled forecasting is produced...i should imagine far less computing power is needed although the AI still needs the input of traditional nwp runs..historical to inform its continual learning...but will there come a time when that is not required ?...
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Incredible...wettest February since records started in 1856 here in the south according to the met..
..also much warmer than average more broadly..
...my own very untechnical rain guage recorded 120mm rain for February or 110mm upto 28th as this year is a leap...well over twice the average for this area..and another 22mm so far for March..
..weidly woke up to a frost and mist this morning ....
...ground is so saturated though...as others have said desperately need period of dry weather...with some sun would be nice...as a gardener sodden ground makes usually enjoyable work very challenging...
..am i hopefull?..well a good start would be to see elimination of those rain spikes on the model runs...
....mmm...oh well there is another SSW on the way apparently...
...interestingly the latest ecm zonal wind chart keeps winds reversed from about 5th to 29th of this month...maybe enough time to promote some blocking that will enable drier weather to take hold...lets hope so, particularly for gardeners and growers..
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..yes looking closer at the uk gfs0z it is a very wet picture for sw areas and pretty wet from north Wales down to London for next couple of weeks..
..no wonder with this being continually being shown on gfs..
...as i alluded to yesterday the position of the blocking high failing to prevent the atlantic trough from coming up around the base to south western areas..
..those precip spikes keep appearing..
..ec maybe bit drier but fair few rain spikes on the ens..
...the drier spell many , including me are hoping for still not looking certain...
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Remarkable level of similarity between Gefs, Eps and Geps 0z for 850s..
...reasonable level of certainty i think for the remainder of April then the trending back to average temps (or even above ) for beginning of May..not completely dry although hopefully less rain than what we have been encountering...