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minus10

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    Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow

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  1. First potential autumnal clash of the air masses shown on gfs 6z at 240. Many variations on this no doubt in the coming days...should reawaken interest...
  2. Yes i think it is a case of 'play it again Sam' . Thanks Cambrian, I always find your posts informative and interesting. Quite an incredible meridional patten of which Sam is part thus ensuring on current output benign weather for us after this current unsettled spell (rain currently hammering down)...even fairly warmish days and possibly foggy nights. Latterly weather turning unsettled again but never really cold. Although t340 , jff, this is quite some longwave meridional pattern:
  3. Interesting ECM 12z this evening. Certainly the weather very unsettled/disturbed now. 4 LPs move in over the 10 day period but cannot move further East before the HP ahead of Hurricane Sam. Indeed Sam enters the stage on Sunday and is loitering with intent until it makes its move on the following Friday on this run. Although this will change it shows how volatile things are at present with high levels of uncertainty: certainly not boring..... High to the north, south and the East, so where does it go?
  4. This is some system ; no Thunder yet but just solid heavy rain almost for last 2 hours.....
  5. Torrential downpour here in wgc. Looks like another one on the way re radar. Will i get any more gardening done this afternoon?
  6. Yes it feels like Autumn has entered the room now. A squall line just passing through here to reinforce the change....
  7. No posts in 7 hours. ....well here's one. Gfs throwing up another interesting twist in the evolution Keeping a depression of varying strengths trapped over us from wednesday 29th to Saturday 2nd October with HP to the north. Preety unsettled i would have thought if this came off ....if....
  8. Interesting this feature from gfs 12z on 2nd October. Looks like a sudden appearance of a tropical storm just off coast of East Anglia. It quickly dissappears and will be gone next run. Dont often see that... After a few days of more unsettled weather (particularly for nw) gfs brings back HP again over us... ...and warmer temps....JFF....
  9. So for the first day of October the ecm0z brings a not insignificant HP to the NE stretching into Greenland with trough over us and to SE and easterly wind potential. I know its day 10 but ecm has been on this signal before. Prior to that a nice late summery spell for many. Certainly not your expected Autumn fayre and nothing is certain it seems presently. Enjoy the next few days.
  10. 16 deg 850s on 24th Sept? Pretty warm I would say for late September. Then by the 27th a HP block to the NE and SW indicated on the ecm12z. With UK caught in the trough it wont be settled but not overly cold I would have thought, although potential cooler easterly could occur moving forward. Similar pattern shown on the EPS : The vortex is just not kicking into life on these charts and as others have said the Atlantic is just not engaging. However as Damianslaw states this is at odds with the GFS/UKMO so could be a blip. Time will tell....
  11. Yes, interestingly the gfs 6z shows the jetstream digging down south later in the period with as you refer to a cyclonic flow developing which depending on where it sets up could result in anything from cool damp to warm and thundery As you say interesting times ahead with all to play for..
  12. Very noticeable the powerhouse of HP to the NE being signalled on the ECM 0z. This could certainly help to promote above average temps and stall the Atlantic systems. How long will it last?..
  13. Talking of ripening cold air my tomatoes have just started to ripen....if this happens they wont get much further... (Btw like the analogy Ed)..
  14. I must admit i was pretty shocked to see this turnabout this morning from the blocked outlook that has been the theme for some time. It will certainly be autumnal if this verifies...
  15. 25mm has fallen so far in WGC from this wet spell. Looks like its going to be a no gardening day...
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