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Everything posted by pages

  1. I want cold and snow as much as anyone my young son constantly asking when is it going to snow enough to go on sledge. But I just can't see us getting opportunity for at least 3 weeks. I know MJO forecast is just that but it's not trending in a good direction. A few days back ECM and GFS both had MJO reaching phase 7 at decent amplitude. Now ECM has it barely reaching for phase 7 and heading for COD and GFS looks even worse diving into the COD from phase 6 and looking like it's going to cycle back to phase 5.
  2. I am not sure about. The snow currently coming down around Liverpool/Manchester was forecast for Glasgow this suggest the short wave is actually much further south than forecast (150miles) this should result in the low to south west phasing with it early/further west and potentially being dragged slightly further north.
  3. Big 6z coming up regarding tomorrow's snow chances for the south. I think we might see a big shift north as the short wave this morning and associated snow that was supposed to be over the central belt of Scotland is actually much further south west giving snow to northern Ireland and north west. With it being further south the low coming in from Atlantic should phase with it earlier and therefore potentially be dragged further north.
  4. Last 24hr trend has been too move Wednesday snow north. Looks like any further moves north will bring lead to it becoming too marginal for the south coast, but will bring the midlands into play. I think at least somewhere will get buried thou whether that is far south or as far up as Birmingham we won't know until 24hours before.
  5. I don't why people dispontent with what showing on models this is what we would expect with where the MJO, from the 12th MJo will go into phase 7 then 8 a week after and looks like it might then go back across the COD into phase 7 again. That means at least We don't need a SSW the vortex isn't currently that strong. The cold weather we just had was always on borrowed time with where we were in MJO cycle and pressure over southern Europe was always going to rise. We now have 2 weeks of wet weather before affects of MJO going into phase 7 around the 11th to filter through, looks like MJo then going into 8 and potentially back into 7 via the COD, so potential for a longer cold spell (2weeks) next time but don't expect any severe until at least 22nd. I would go as far to say if we lucky with the MJO cycling between phase 7/8/1 a couple of times we probably don't want a SSW a weak vortex is better option and stops any Greenland high moving to far west.
  6. O no that's not good with the cold winning out at this far out, it's going to miss to the south again lol.
  7. I am starting to think 7th December might be a bit special. Yes currently just showing heavy rain everywhere but that low that end the spell is being modelled further and further south and getting more enlongated. At this far out I would say it's pretty much in perfect position with how much everything moves south. Calling a channel low blizzard now
  8. Just for fun, how cold would this be minus 12/13 uppers in slack north easterly with snow on the ground.
  9. Last sentence definitely true, watching the ensembles roll out think they might need to rescale that above chart in a couple of frames time for ensemble 21 minus 16 uppers might make it.
  10. Icon at 150 The low about coming in is slightly to far north which at this far out is excellent as we know from experience it will more than likely trend further and further south.
  11. Yeah those would be carnage, unfortunately not out of question as definitely trended that way.
  12. So the 6z GFS moves further north west again. Not looking good for Kent coasts and strong enough further inland now to cause serious travel as likely Dartford and Medway bridges be closed
  13. 0z GFS is further north west than 18z by quite a bit, extreme gusts 90mph+ now clipping places such a Brighton. The rest of the models not as extreme but icon and GEM also bit further north than there 12z runs. Path still not nailed down yet.
  14. Icon, slightly north than 18z run GFS a lot more so, and looks a worrying the purple shading touching the coast at 7am between Brighton and Eastbourne depicts gusts of 110 knots/125mph
  15. Won't be any amber warnings if latest Icon is correct big move south.
  16. GFS T60 5mb deeper and further north. If gets any deeper or further north it be devastating
  17. 12z icon slightly further north and deeper, not looking south coast
  18. Now we are talking. This week might just be the starters.. MJO now gaining amplitude in phase 7. Models all over the show as can't get scandie height rises while the vortex displaced there and nothing to drive a Greenland high but potential is there for wedge to west of Iceland to disrupt the next few lows under into that cold air.
  19. The Ukmo ain't any good either. It just looks good as don't see further, it will end up with high pressure to our south We ain't getting a really cold spell from this SSW. Irony is the reason is because there is no vortex left on Canadian side. Not going to get a robust high over Greenland or Iceland if it can just wander off to the west and have massive areas of weak high pressure. That's why split SSWs are better as left with some of the vortex on the American side to drive WAA up to Greenland and the high is cut off. The righting is on the wall for the current UK high to split with us ending up with high to the south.
  20. Sounds like the met office already trying to make excuses for massive mistake via twitter from the comfort of their warm homes I get not wanting to put out unnecessary to early but it's obvious on couple of occasions now that they don't have anyone with authority working on Sunday evenings to make a quick decision. They should of least given amber possibly red warnings this afternoon giving People heads up before venturing out, there vehicles stranded over night on all the major motorways now.
  21. Is someone gonna message him and ask why at 9:54pm he forecasting max of 12cm locally in the prime area when a few places already well above that.
  22. The radar ain't right for precip type I have been under the green for 3 hours and it definitely snow not sleet mix like radar says just been out here in laindon and we got 22cm so far on top of car, stopped here now but looks like might catch some more in hour or so as it pivots.
  23. They are useless on Sunday nights, seen it happen a few times, they probably got 1 junior forecaster in that has adjusted the warning zone slightly but doesn't have authority to issue amber they probably have to phone someone higher up at home.
  24. The forecasts are always worse on a Sunday. I am sure they film them on the Friday afternoon and just play them, none of them work on a weekend
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