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  1. Yeah ECM backs icon & ukmo. GEM is half way house with weak storm going north through the middle of Florida penisula. GEM is probably actually the worse outcome as only model showing any significant rain/gusts in central Florida other 3 are stronger systems but out at sea with no landfall. be very interesting to see what NHC do on next update as really should issue storm surge warnings for Bahamas and east of Florida but will they do that if the American model is showing different..suppose they will wait until after 18z GFS then issue warnings
  2. Latest update has removed mention of the gulf/Florida just mentions 80% chance of it becoming a storm. Think NHC will issue storm warnings to Florida east coast after this afternoons ECM. GFS will probably come in to line by then. Looking at icon and ECM it never makes landfall but is a hurricane sitting of florida/Gorgia coasts for days so flooding would be mostly likely concern not the wind
  3. Latest icon doesn't get the disturbance into the gulf, slowing it down and taking it up eastern side of Florida as strong storm/cat 1 hurricane. GFS thou stays same as earlier with weak depression into gulf that doesn't really develop. What's the bet the icon is the start of a trend to intensify it and have it turn north further east. Sound familiar...
  4. Couple of American short range models show it coming well inland now. When the difference of a few miles could have major affects on warning do you think the MET office share with NOAA what MOGREPS and UKV are showing? As never see them mentioned in their updates. Would think when impact could be so big that everyone would share the most accurate info or at least Trump would pay the met office for it
  5. 18z GFS shifted a bit West and icon 18z is a lot further west than what NOAA are showing landfill mid Florida as cat4 and staling right on the coast, could be a lot of flooding as it weakens very slowly I would back icon and ukmet at this range than the American models
  6. Wow is that really chafford. Left lakeside at 8 was coming down hard but nothing had settled. Came through laiandon hills and it was like the Alps was scary with a van going sideways in front. Got the other side to noak bridge and nothing is settling. It's mad how localising the difference between settling and not is.
  7. Almost and look at date 25th. GP is going to bang on with the 26th his a bit good.
  8. Nobody will be saying no snow forecast if 384 comes off, everyone will be buried and had enough for winter before the 1st of December
  9. Next frame would be absolutely carnage as that Chanel low moves east the blizzards commence 2010 all over again
  10. generally think they are far worse on a weekend. I get the impression they are like most big government departments and run on a Skelton staff with only junior members on the weekend. The junior staff are probably told to just read from the computer generated forecast. if they were looking at latest radar and pressure readings across France they would see there is a small low to east of Paris which has nudged slightly north over last couple of hours. This was not modelled as see 12z GFS. we don't have streamer as such but the precipitation on northern edge is being slightly intensified a hits north sea/Estuary. I haven't a clue whether that low will continue to move north/north west/north east or dissipate. Even if the Met office were/are looking at the radar I doubt they would hazard a forecast as its a dynamic situation and they probably haven't a clue, they would probably wait until the 18z models come out then adjust forecast.
  11. looks like there is small low centred over Reims maybe pushing slightly north, was not on any model, so what is does is any ones guess there is a lot of precipitation there moving into Champagne region it couldn't make it could it? https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/radar.php
  12. 18z Hirlam looks really good from 6am tomorrow for 24 hours, spreads it around the region aswell
  13. I did say earlier people were believing this spell was over too early. Radar shows snow coming back into south London in about 30minutes and GFS looks better for midweek onwards. would be not surprised if tomorrow is colder than expected as the low tonight looks further east so will pull in more of a continental feed, slight thaw start of week before going cold again next weekend.
  14. further east than planned Definitely sending some energy off to the East. next hour watching that radar could be interesting and not just for tonight if that low is sending a shortwave east we will pull the colder Dew points and uppers back in, might get a bit more snow tomorrow, lets see what is does and what 18z says before declaring this spell over.
  15. everyone talking like this over, not so sure myself. we have all week the models fail to even predict snowfall accurately. that lot in channel should be going towards Plymouth as low goes north. looks like low is disrupting a bit to be and sending a shortwave east from radar. keep an eye on the eastern end of precip near Le H arve that big blob may shear into in next hour and places in Sussex/kent coast may get bonus snowfall.
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