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  1. Shades of dark red which I think are around 15cm an hour appearing in estuary now think gonna be a direct hit for sheerness. Hope someone awake to film it when it comes a shore
  2. Some people gonna be shocked when wake in the morning some of the stuff in estuary really intensifying now, north west Kent and south east Essex could get more snow in next couple of hours than they have the whole spell so far. Good 4/5hours before convection supposed to die off. Even London may manage a couple of cm
  3. I don't think it's over yet for anywhere in Kent or south Essex tonight. Last few radar graps showing the streamers starting to pivot back the other other way. Can we go through all the different streamers this evening as the winds swing around to eventually south Easterly. Still showers up north so the increase in pressure will still allow convection. Thou gets to a point where the shorter sea track will reduce convection
  4. Why do the BBC even use the Meteogroup forecasts? Understand they didn't renew MET office contract as too expensive. If they saving money why didn't they go the full hog and just get their own presenters/forecasters to interpret the models and put their own graphics on.
  5. I wouldn't worry yet. Latest GFS shows low slight further north and west than yesterday models hence why uppers and dew points taking longer to cool down. Last few radar runs show the whole back of the band in North sea turning to snow and intensifying. Yes we have lost couple of hours early snow due to it being marginally to warm but it should be turning rapidly now and setting within next couple of hours for all. Positive is more areas to north and west should see snow than modelled last night
  6. Sleet here in Laindon aswell last radar return had a pink pixel in Kent, so it's starting to turn now another 2 hours I reckon and any precipitation will be snow
  7. Hopefully not. Let's hope it stays in phase 7 as long as possible. Phase 8 often flatters to deceive. When models 1st pickup on phase 8 they show impressive Greenland high but as time ticks down we more often then not end up with west based -Nao. Ideally the MJO meanders around the border of 7&8 at decent amplitude supporting prolonged scandie high pushing towards Iceland.
  8. It's looking good for most of us. If your app is not showing much snow don't get to hung up. All models and met office forecast have Sheffield at 3 degrees and heavy rain at this time but it is already zero and chucking it down with snow. Doesn't necessarily mean it's going to start snowing earlier here but illustrates it's now down to watching radar and looking out of window as could easily be further west than models have shown.
  9. Looking very good. Just popped into north east thread it's already snowing in lowest parts of Sheffield. Met office and most models didn't have it transitioning to snow there until 9pm suggest uppers are colder than modelled or under cutting quicker. Also the precipitation in North east is heavier than forecast suggesting models have under modelled convection as cold uppers move in. Kold do you think with it already snowing in North east 3 hours before modelled we will see same down here from midnight ish?
  10. MET office uses a matrix system. They see this event as the highest impact, but not red warning yet as haven't moved to defenietly go to happen as models still slightly differ. I assume it meets the highest impact criteria as main roads may be impassible so people could get stuck in freezing conditions. I.e red warning area to do not travel. I expect once the run the UKV at midnight they will update the warnings and will be 2or3 small areas of red warnings within the current amber area. Probably south East Essex and north Kent narrow strip along east coast.
  11. I expect Met will, redraw warning zone tomorrow morning after the 6z and move the tick box in there matrix up a row to more likely then after tomorrow 18z draw a smaller red zone within the amber zone.
  12. Para starting to see the picture, not there yet. Now cold spell nailed on, next thing to look for on future runs is that wedge south of Iceland. Met office outlook suggests that will be further east and a tad stronger then easy to see where there cold but mainly dry outlook comes from. Scotland and north to be left very cold within high pressure and rest of country with slacker easterly end of next week.
  13. Of course the breakdown is showing as the models have been showing phantom Greenland high for next week and still showing downgraded heights there 100hr+ Met office never mention heights next week to the north west i.e no Greenland heights. Met office mention height rises to north and it being dry apart from snow showers in east Expect over next few runs that higher pressure over Greenland to disappear and be replaced by wedges of heights between Iceland and Scotland just strong enough to send the approaching lows into France. The increased heights over UK limiting convecti
  14. I know we don't see Mogreps. But all models we see are very slowly trending to what it must of been showing all along. Met office saying pressure rises directly north and snow showers into east with Atlantic not getting in next week with it becoming dry. Suggests low on Sunday still be further south than any model currently shows.
  15. Don't think the 18z or any model we public see has this correct yet. Met office only mention showers for east side of UK, no mention of heavy snow from low. Suggests come Sunday that low will be much further south east well into France and we have snow showers/streamers. Also they bullish on heights rising to north start of next week and it becoming dry and cold. Are they just being vague in saying north or perhaps mogreps is showing Icelandic heights instead of the Greenland heights shown by the other models so far. Would expect a few ensembles to start hinting this on next co
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