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Coastal Eddy

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  1. That's directly over the WHITE-house No wonder there's a government shutdown !
  2. Goodbye Leslie, we will miss you ! If she hadn't gone Extratropical on September 25th for a couple of days this would be discussion number 78 000 WTNT43 KNHC 132036 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number 70 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal, reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range, which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over or just north of Spain by late Sunday. Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt. Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model guidance. The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling hazards information for their respective countries via local weather products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory on this system. Key Messages: 1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday. 2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1 to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches) across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash flooding. 3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 40.5N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 14/0600Z 43.0N 4.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND 24H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
  3. NHC discussion number 53 final sentence I can't rule out that Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it continues meandering over the northern Atlantic. Forecaster Zelenski is going to need a holiday by the time Leslie is done !
  4. I have also been monitoring this unusual system. On Tuesday it transitioned from Subtropical to Extratropical and was no longer covered by the National Hurricane Center. Then on Friday after it drifted south it transitioned back to Subtropical and was again covered by the national hurricane centre with the same name. Now it is Tropical and likely to become a hurricane for a while. Has anybody seen this happen before ?
  5. I rarely post here but enjoy the reading I only look at fax charts and find this one fascinating Where does the low go from here and what happened to the Scandi heights ? Expert opinion much appreciated
  6. This is my first ever post on the forum. I have enjoyed reading for many years - Some very informative and sometimes emotional posts ! I have only ever looked at FAX charts for the last 40 years My reading of the upcoming North Westerly/Northerly appears to be just an extension of the Azores High in a more northwesterly position Just watched outlook on BBC and they showed the Azores high drifting north east and becoming a Scandi high as a possible easterly outcome - Is this possible ? Is this where our potential easterly arises from or is this just new high pressure building in Scandi ? I am a little confused by this Would appreciate any input from the experts Cheers all
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