snowblind

The 1200 ICON has shifted the precipitation and associated snow risk slightly further north again putting the south coast and Kent in the firing line again. Be interesting to see if the other models follow this.

This is from last year. British weather still confounds forecasting supercomputers | Meteorology | The Guardian WWW.GOOGLE.COM Recent cold spell in the south-east shows how three- to five-day calculations can be wildly incorrect

2.5 and sunny today. Much better than the last couple of days. According to the forecast on the met office site it should currently be 4 and overcast.

Not yet but give it time.

GFS 0600 run moves the system on Wednesday further north running along the South coast and clipping into Kent. The icon 0600 keeps it in northern France.

It goes from winter is over to a new ice age cometh and back again, usually on the same day.

So the ECM did send the low pressure further south along the north coast of France. So GFS the only one that gives our region a sniff of snow next week. Wait and see I guess still along way off and things could change for the better in terms of snow. Looks like we have a frosty cold week in store at least.

Latest icon has moved the low pressure further north for wednesday. Still not far enough but now it's just off the south coast instead of northern France. GFS further north than icon running the precipitation along the South coast then up across Kent where it is heaviest. Still a long way to run on this one. Now watch the ECM run the low pressure through Spain.

Latest met office outlook is a bit of downgrade in terms of snowfall next week but the chance is still there for the south. Also could be some snow around during the transition to less cold weather next weekend. "Wednesday 17 Jan - Friday 26 Jan Staying very cold through next week. Northerly winds will bring snow showers inland at times, these most frequent across northern Scotland. Many inland areas will be mainly dry with a good deal of clear/bright weather. During Wednesday there is a chance of an area of snow moving across parts of southern England and Wales for a time though confidence is currently low in the behaviour of this system. Towards the end of the week or more likely over next weekend, the start of a transition back to less cold conditions is likely as Atlantic systems start to arrive from the west brining spells of rain and strong winds. Whilst conditions should gradually turn milder, this transition brings the chance of spells of snow."

GFS 0600 run still cold out to about the 22nd. Might extend by a day or 2 as usually happens. Some of the ensemble members showing precipitation on 17th/18th so some are still seeing the low pressure heading further North. Obviously there's much more precipitation about when it will be too warm for snow. The ECM 0600 run has the 17th/18th just in range and that is also showing some precipitation for those dates from it's ensembles so maybe not a done deal yet.

Looks like the operational runs for all the models are pretty dry but there seem to be quite a few of the ensemble members that have more precipitation around so sending the low pressure further north. All is not lost quite yet perhaps. Like you say, keep an eye on the met office updates and we'll know what the pros are thinking but still looks like quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of the low next week. This the ensemble graph for the latest ECM run. You can see the precipitation spikes around the 17th along the bottom. Some ensemble members must take the low pretty for north as they introduce milder air as well

As others have pointed out, what was highlighted as a small possibility on the met office 10 day trends a couple of days ago, seems to be happening. The low pressure system going into France and taking the snow risk for us with it. So at this stage cold and dry before warming up. Still nearly a week away so still time for the low pressure to move North again but seems to be trending in the wrong direction ATM.

Thought I'd have a look at the models myself today instead of trying to figure out the MAD thread. I just looked at the GFS and ECM. To me it's looking good for a cold spell out to about the 22nd of Jan when they seem to lose the cold signal with the mean heading back to average, but that's a long way off. When I say cold spell looks like temps below 5 for the duration. This is for London so should be a bit colder over most of our region. The ECM looks colder than the GFS but the 0600 GFS run looks colder than then the midnight one. As for snow chances unknowable at this range but we are in with a shout if things fall well for us. That's my stab, very vague but I don't see how you can put much detail on it as things change so much. But the trend, ignoring the volatile operational runs, seems to be, warming up slightly rest of this week and less frost due to more cloud. Getting cold again from Monday onwards so max temps in the 2 to 3 range I think. Possibly returning to near average by the 22nd of Jan ish. A snow risk from midweek next week. I could have completely misread the models and it could all change anyway so don't hold me to any of this.

Maxed out at 4.3 yesterday and down to -1.8 last night. The frost has lifted now with the temp now up to 3.2. Have lost the lovely sunshine of this morning and it is just grey now. I imagine the cloud will prevent a frost tonight. Feels cold out there and the puddles are still frozen.

Went to bed dreaming of a repeat of the epic snowstorm of early January 1982 and woke up to the nightmare of a couple of hours of snow before turning to rain. It's a whole week away though so plenty of ups and downs before then. Let's hope for more ups. I'm not really interested in a prolonged cold spell if no snow is involved. Longing for a good old fashioned snowstorm. Whilst cold and frosty is nice for a while it gets a bit boring imo. Snowy winters tend to stick in my mind more than cold frosty ones. Hoping for some exciting wintry weather for our region next week.

Not as cold last night as I thought it was going to be only down to -1 in the end. Lovely crisp winters morning.

Will your boss be sympathetic?

Beautiful crisp winters day today. Maxed out at 3 down to 1 now. Should be a decent frost tonight.

Fortunately it's 7 days away so plenty of time for it to change for the better, or worse I guess but let's be positive.

Indeed. Very tricky forecasting snow in this country. Details are not clear until much nearer the time.

I agree a much better update. Glad that last bit has been removed. Now all we want is it to stay good or get better and not to change for the worse again.

I'm not an expert but it would be a combination of 850s, dew points, wet bulb temperature, surface temperature and probably some other things. You would struggle to get snow falling with 850 temp above 0 but at or just below is possible usually with fronts moving into cold dense lower level air. The classic example would be fronts approaching from the south west with a south easterly wind ahead drawing cold air from the continent, assuming there is a cold enough supply of air there. In the situation where you have 850s above zero but surface temperatures are at or below freezing you'd most likely get freezing rain where the rain freezes on contact with the still frozen ground. But like I say there are lots of factors involved and it's not easy to work out. I'm sure there is a detailed explanation on here somewhere that explains the factors required for snow to fall.

That doesn't look as bad as I was expecting from reading some of the other posts. Temps generally below 5 for your south coast location, raising slightly towards the end, with the op above the mean for the duration. Let's hope for a better op this afternoon.

There is now a weather warning out for the entire southern half of the country. Just for Ice though. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=48f8eea1-8820-4374-bb04-401360e49e69&date=2024-01-08

Very fine snow just started